NSCB - 2004 StatSeries - A Statistical Analysis of Voters’ Registration and Participation

A Statistical Analysis of
Voters’ Registration and Participation
Ref No.: SS-200405-PP2-01
Posted: 08 May 2004

by the Standards and Classification Division
Programs, Policies and Standards Office, NSCB

Introduction

Suffrage is the right and obligation to vote of qualified citizens in the election of national and local officers of the government and in the decision of public questions submitted to the people. Article 1 of the 1987 Constitution of the Philippines states that:

”Suffrage may be exercised by all citizens of the Philippines not otherwise disqualified by law, who are at least eighteen years of age, and who shall have resided in the Philippines for at least one year and in the place wherein they propose to vote for at least six months immediately preceding the election. No literacy, property or other substantive requirements shall be imposed on the exercise of suffrage.”

This paper presents an analysis of voters’ registration from 1978 to 2004 and participation (those who actually voted) from 1978-2002 based on the official results of the country’s electoral exercises as released by the Commission on Elections (COMELEC).

Based on the average voting rate in the last two national and local elections, approximately 81.4 percent or 35.4 million voters out of 43.5 million registered voters are expected to exercise their right to vote on May 10, 2004. The last two elections gave higher average voting rate of 81.4 percent vs. the average voting rate of 77.8 percent for the last three elections. It appears that there is heightened awareness /enthusiasm of voters to exercise suffrage.

1. Registered Voters By Sex

Table 1 – Registered Voters By Sex, 1978 to 2004

Electoral Exercises	Total	Annual Growth Rate	Women		Men
Electoral Exercises	Total	Annual Growth Rate	No.	%	No.	%
1978 National Elections	21,464,213		10,667,776	49.70	10,796,437	50.30
1980 Local Elections	24,881,021	7.67	12,282,111	49.36	12,598,910	50.64
1984 Batasang Pambansa Elections	24,822,438	(0.06)	12,262,484	49.40	12,559,954	50.60
1986 Special Elections	26,278,744	2.89	12,988,156	49.42	13,290,588	50.58
1987 Congressional Elections	26,569,539	1.11	13,110,903	49.35	13,458,636	50.65
1988 Local Elections	27,625,062	3.97	13,605,495	49.25	14,019,567	50.75
1989 Barangay Elections	27,938,065	1.13	13,749,397	49.21	14,188,668	50.79
1992 Synchronized Elections	32,141,079	4.78	15,943,413	49.60	16,197,666	50.40
1995 National & Local Elections	36,415,144	4.25	18,122,994	49.77	18,292,150	50.23
1998 National & Local Elections	34,117,056	(2.15)	17,227,292	50.49	16,889,764	49.51
2001 National & Local Elections	36,354,898	2.14	18,371,329	50.53	17,983,569	49.47
2002 Barangay Elections	37,724,463	1.24	n.a.	-	n.a.	-
2004 National & Local Elections	43,536,028	4.89	n.a.	-	n.a.	-

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

Based on the official data as of April 28, 2004 released by the COMELEC, registered voters reached 43.5 M for the May 2004 National and Local Elections. The figure is based on the number of registered voters in 2002 plus those who were eligible to register in 2004 minus deaths of registered voters and immigrants. It may be noted that those who are eligible to register in 2004 are those who have aged 17 years old on or before May 10, 2003 and those unregistered voters as of 2003.

The number of registered voters as may be expected showed an increasing trend from 1978 to 2004, except in 1984 and 1998 which recorded a decline of 0.06 and 2.15 percent, respectively. This may be due to boycotts in the election as a result of the country’s political unrest and the lower number of registered voters in 1998 which could mean many qualified voters were not able to register under R.A. 8189 (An Act providing for a general registration of voters adopting a system of continuing registration).

The official data also showed consistent higher registration for men over women from 1978 to 1995. This is understandable because the estimated male population was higher than female population based on the projected population figures of the National Statistics Office. However, in the 1998 and 2001 National and Local Elections, the women registered voters are higher by more than 300 thousand over the men registered voters indicating an increased appreciation of women on the importance of their right to vote. (Table 1).

2. Registered Voters By Main Island Groups

Table 2 – Registered Voters By Main Island Groups, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2004

Philippines/ Main Island Group	1998		2001		2002		2004		Percent
	1998		2001		2002		2004		Increase/(Decrease)
	No.	%	No.	%	No.	%	No.	%	1998-2001	2001-2002	2002-2004
Philippines	34,117,056	100	36,350,561	100	37,724,463	100	43,536,028	100	6.5	3.8	15.4

Luzon	19,428,515	57	20,600,223	57	21,289,384	56	24,620,517	56	6.0	3.3	15.6
Visayas	6,860,755	20	7,682,042	21	7,856,155	21	8,968,714	21	12.0	2.3	14.2
Mindanao	7,827,786	23	8,068,296	22	8,578,924	23	9,946,797	23	3.1	6.3	15.9

ource: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

By main island group, Luzon has the highest number of registered voters of 24,620,517 (56%); followed by Mindanao, 9,946,797 (23%); and Visayas 8,968,714 (21%) in the forthcoming May 10, 2004 National and Local Elections which recorded an increase of 15.6, 15.9 and 14.2 percent, respectively, from 2002 (Table 2).

3. Registered Voters By Region

Table 3 –Number of Registered Voters By Region, 2002 and 2004

Area	2002	2004	Percent Increase (Decrease)
Philippines	37,724,463	43,536,028	15.41

Luzon	21,289,384	24,620,517	15.65
NCR	5,200,801	5,925,347	13.93
CAR	668,179	762,268	14.08
REGION I	2,116,794	2,323,285	9.75
REGION II	1,315,094	1,498,780	13.97
REGION III	4,172,054	4,958,425	18.85
REGION IV-A	4,595,494	5,528,898	20.31
REGION IV-B	1,053,397	1,191,930	13.15
REGION V	2,167,571	2,431,584	12.18

Visayas	7,856,155	8,968,714	14.16
REGION VI	3,115,806	3,592,213	15.29
REGION VII	2,851,513	3,297,946	15.66
REGION VIII	1,888,836	2,078,555	10.04

Mindanao	8,578,924	9,946,797	15.94
REGION IX	1,409,679	1,657,134	17.55
REGION X	1,755,691	2,067,109	17.74
REGION XI	1,773,757	2,134,415	20.33
REGION XII	1,485,733	1,867,539	25.70
REGION XIII (Caraga)	1,051,566	1,163,142	10.61
ARMM	1,102,498	1,057,458	(4.09)

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

Compared to the 2002 registration, all regions except ARMM, reflected increases in the number of registered voters in the 2004 national and local elections. The highest increase in the registered voters was in Region XII (Soccsksargen) at 25.7%, followed by Region XI (Davao Region) and Region IV-A (Calabarzon), both at 20.3%. The number of registered voters in ARMM declined by 4.1% (Table 3).

Chart 1 – Number of Registered Voters by Region, 2002 and 2004

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

The three regions that consistently showed the highest number of registered voters were are follows: National Capital Region (NCR) with 5.2 M in 2002 and 5.9M in 2004, followed by Region IV-A (CALABARZON) with 4.6 M in 2002 and 5.5 in 2004, and Region III (Central Luzon) with 4.2 M in 2002 and 5.0 M in 2004. CAR had the lowest number of registered voters with .668 M in 2002 and .762 M in 2004, respectively (Chart 1).

4. Registered Voters By Province

Chart 2 – Top Five Provinces In Number of Registered Voters, 2004

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

Chart 2 shows that in 2004, the 5 provinces garnering the highest number of registered voters are Cebu (with 2.019 M) followed by Negros Occidental (1.478 M), Bulacan (1.421 M), Pangasinan (1.330 M), and Cavite (1.320 M).

5. Provinces with Significant Changes in the Number of Registered Voters, 2002 and 2004.

The five provinces with highest percentage increase of registered voters in 2004 over 2002 were Rizal (31.48%), followed by Lanao del Norte (27.78%), Sultan Kudarat (26.90%), Davao del Norte (26.06%) and Cotabato (North Cotabato) (25.98%) (Table 4 Number of Registered Voters By Region & Province: 2002 and 2004 [ 29KB]).

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

On the other hand, the provinces, which showed lowest percent changes in the number of registered voters from 2002, were the following: Maguindanao (-15.82%), Basilan (-14.52%), Romblon (2.97%), Quirino (4.35%) and Sulu (4.65%) (Table 4 Number of Registered Voters By Region & Province: 2002 and 2004 [ 29KB]).

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

6. Registered Voters Who Actually Voted

Chart 3– Registered Voters who Actually Voted, 1978 - 2004

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

The highest number of registered voters who actually voted was recorded at 31.4 M in the 2001 national and local elections. This may be attributed to the increase in the number of registered voters by 2.14 percent.

7. Percent Actually Voted By Sex

Chart 4 - Percent Actually Voted By Sex, 1978-2001

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

By sex, the election results showed a consistently higher percentage of voters who actually voted among women than the men (Table 4 Number of Registered Voters By Region & Province: 2002 and 2004 [ 29KB]).

Based on the average voting rate in the last two elections, i.e., the 2001 and 2002 National and Local Elections, 81.4 percent or approximately 35.4 million voters out of 43.5 million registered voters are expected to exercise their right of suffrage on May 14, 2004 (Table 1)

Table 5 – Percent Actually Voted By Sex, 1978 - 2001

Electoral Exercises	Percent Who Actually Voted
Electoral Exercises	Total	Men	Women
1978 National Elections	85.5	85.1	86.0
1980 Local Elections	76.7	76.4	77.0
1984 Batasang Pambansa Elections	89.5	88.8	90.2
1986 Special Elections	78.8	78.0	79.6
1987 Congressional Elections	85.6	85.6	86.0
1988 Local Elections	78.9	78.9	79.2
1989 Barangay Elections	67.5	67.5	67.5
1992 Synchronized Elections	75.5	75.5	76.0
1995 National & Local Elections	70.6	70.3	71.0
1998 National & Local Elections	86.4	85.7	87.0
2001 National & Local Elections	76.3	75.9	76.7

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

8. Top Five Provinces With Highest Registered Voters Who Actually Voted in 2001 and 2002 Elections

Table 6 (Number of Registered Voters and Voters Who Actually Voted and Percentage of Voting by Province for 2001and 2002 Elections [ 24KB] ) shows the total number of registered voters who actually voted and the percentage of voting by province. Based on the average voting rate in the last two national and local elections, the top five provinces with the highest percentage of voting were the following: 1) Ilocos Sur (85.2%), 2) Bohol (84.3%), 3) Siquijor (84.2%), 4) Abra (82.6%), and (5) Ilocos Norte (82.5%) (Table 7).

On the other hand, provinces which reported to have the highest number of registered voters who actually voted in 2002 are the following : 1) Cebu, 2) Pangasinan, 3) Negros Occidental, 4) Bulacan, and Batangas (Table 8).

Likewise, NCR which registered the highest number of registered voters among the regions, had an average voting rate of 55.3% which means approximately 3.3 million voters are expected to exercise their suffrage on May 10, 2004 (Table 6 Number of Registered Voters and Voters Who Actually Voted and Percentage of Voting by Province for 2001and 2002 Elections [ 24KB] ).

Table 7 - Top Five (5) Provinces with Highest Percentage of Voting in
2001 and 2002 Elections

Province	2001 National and Local Elections		2002 Barangay Elections		Actually Voted Percent (%) Increase/ Decreased	Average Voting Rate (%) 2001 -2002
	Voters who Actually Voted	Percent-age of Voting (%)	Voters who Actually Voted	Percent-age of Voting (%)	Actually Voted Percent (%) Increase/ Decreased	Average Voting Rate (%) 2001 -2002
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)

ILOCOS SUR	251,406	86.35	260,772	84.14	3.73	85.24
BOHOL	466,919	86.11	463,454	82.40	-0.74	84.26
SIQUIJOR	40,816	86.09	40,101	82.32	-1.75	84.21
ABRA	97,330	85.82	95,096	79.40	-2.30	82.61
ILOCOS NORTE	224,378	84.06	223,883	81.08	-0.22	82.57

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

Table 8 – Top Five Provinces with Highest Number of Registered Voters Who
Actually Voted in 2001 and 2002 Elections

Province	2001 National and Local Elections		2002 Barangay Elections		Actually Voted Percent (%) Increase/ Decreased	Average Voting Rate (%) 2001 -2002
	Voters who Actually Voted	Percent-age of Voting (%)	Voters who Actually Voted	Percent-age of Voting (%)	Actually Voted Percent (%) Increase/ Decreased	Average Voting Rate (%) 2001 -2002
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)

C E B U	1,347,024	80.29	1,268,336	74.29	-5.84	77.29
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL	976,562	79.63	929,342	74.31	-4.84	76.97
PANGASINAN	920,095	81.14	955,887	79.9	3.89	80.52
BULACAN	800,647	75.02	802,223	70.79	0.2	72.91
BATANGAS	773,368	80.55	777,766	79.43	0.57	79.99

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

9. Elected Candidates By Sex, 1998

Table 9 - Number of Elected Candidates by Sex, May 11, 1998
National and Local Elections

Position	Total Number of Seats	Number of Elected Candidates			Percent Distribution
Position	Total Number of Seats	Total	Female	Male	Female	Male
President	1	1	-	1	-	100
Vice-President	1	1	1	-	100	-
Senators	12	12	2	10	17	83
Congressman	208	207	20	187	10	90
Governor	78	78	13	65	17	83
Vice-Governor	78	78	9	69	12	88
Board Member	722	719	102	617	14	86
Mayor	1,607	1,595	239	1,356	15	85
Vice-Mayor	1,607	1,595	178	1,417	11	89
Councilor	13,146	13,037	2,180	10,857	17	83

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

Results of the May 11, 1998 National and Local Elections showed that the total number of elected candidates by sex is consistently higher among men elected candidates. Except for the vice-presidency seat, men elected candidates dominated all political positions. Noticeably, the total number of elected candidates do not tally with total number of seats for some positions such as Congressman, Board Member, Mayor, Vice-Mayor and Councilor. (Table 9).

10. Percentage of Voters for Winners, 1998

Table 10 - Percentage of Votes Obtained by Elected National Officials
(May 11, 1998)

Seats and Names	Votes Obtained	Percentage of Votes
President	10,722,295	42.1
Vice-President	12,667,252	49.7
Senator 1	14,996,764	58.8
Senator 2	13,231,222	51.9
Senator 3	11,578,572	45.4
Senator 4	10,267,969	40.3
Senator 5	9,805,188	38.5
Senator 6	9,395,603	36.9
Senator 7	9,276,183	36.4
Senator 8	9,278,600	36.4
Senator 9	8,955,001	35.1
Senator 10	8,707,391	34.2
Senator 11	7,349,873	28.8
Senator 12	7,269,444	28.5

Source: Commission on Elections (COMELEC)

In the May 11, 1998 National and Local Elections, the elected president and the vice-president of the Philippines obtained 10.7 million votes (42.1%) and 12.7 million votes (49.7 %), respectively. In the senatorial race, the top four winning candidates obtaining more than 10 million votes each were as follows: Senator 1 and 2 with 14.9 million and 13.2 million votes, respectively representing more than 50 percent votes, followed by Senator 3 and 4 with 11.6 million votes (45.4 %) and 10.3 million votes (40.3 %), respectively. The rest of the eight winning senatorial candidates obtained 7 million votes each or 28 % of voters who actually voted. For a Candidate to win, he must have at least 7 million votes in the May 10, 2004 National and Local Elections.

11. Number of Overseas Absentee Voters

The updated number of overseas absentee voters by country and post was registered at 357,782 as of March 12, 2004.This is .82 percent of the total registered voters. The countries with the highest number of registered voters are Hongkong, Riyadh and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia with 24.5 percent, 17.9 percent and 9.1 percent of the total absentee voters, respectively (Table 11 Number of Overseas Absentee Voters as of March 12, 2004 [ 23KB]).

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For inquiries on this series, please contact:

Ms. Margarita D. Salutan
Standards and Classification Division
Programs, Policies and Standards Office, NSCB
Tel. No. (632) 897-1773; Fax No. (632) 897-1773
E-mail: md.salutan@nscb.gov.ph


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