NSCB - 2nd Quarter 2010 National Accounts - Sources of Revision as of August 2010

Revisions in Q1 2010 GDP/GNP estimates

Based on the Revision Policy approved by the NSCB Executive Board through NSCB Resolution No. 8-97, and consistent with the international practice on the revision of National Accounts, we are reflecting the corrections and revisions in our previous estimates, based on the revisions and updates made by the data sources themselves, including those made by NSO, BSP, DOE, DBM, POEA, BAS, SRA, FMB, water utilities, and airline companies.

For the first quarter, the largest contributor to the revision was Trade which was revised upward and contributed 0.62 percentage point. Other upward contributions on the production side came from:

a) Electricity, gas, and water, with 0.14 percentage point; and
b) Government services, with 0.11 percentage point.

On the other hand, downward contributions came from:

a)         Transport, communication and storage, with negative 0.17 percentage point;
b)         Private services, with negative 0.09 percentage point;
c)         Manufacturing, with negative 0.06 percentage point; and
d)         Agriculture and fishery, with negative 0.04 percentage point.

Meanwhile, NFIA was revised downward due to an upward Balance of Payments revision on property expense; which contributed negative 1.34 percentage points to the GNP revision. As a result of all the revisions for the first quarter, GDP growth was revised upward by 0.5 percentage point from 7.3 % to 7.8 % while GNP was revised downward by 0.9 percentage point from 9.5% to 8.6 %. A more complete tabulation of our revisions is included in our publication.

Expenditure Accounts

Q1 2010 Growth Rates Expenditure Accounts	2009-2010			Reasons for revisions
Q1 2010 Growth Rates Expenditure Accounts	As of May 2010	As of August 2010	Change	Reasons for revisions

1. Personal Consumption Expenditure
Current				Updated data on PCE indicators.
Q1	10.5	9.8	-0.8
Constant
Q1	5.9	5.4	-0.6

2. Government Consumption Expenditure
Current				Updated data on average government services derived from the 2010 BESF, DBM.
Q1	26.9	26.8	1.4
Constant
Q1	18.5	20.0	1.5

3. Capital Formation
Current
Q1	23.9	24.5	0.6
Constant
Q1	24.3	21.9	0.8

A. Fixed Capital
Current
Q1	11.9	15.5	3.6
Constant
Q1	15.7	16.0	0.3

1. Construction
Current				Updated data in DBM disbursements (net of accounts payable) Updated data in QSPBI Updated data in Building Permits, Updated WPI for construction materials. ( For lumber products & other materials).
Q1	10.3	9.8	-0.5
Constant
Q1	8.2	7.9	-0.3

2. Durable Equipment
current				Availability of March 2010 imports data. Revised Q1 2010 GVA and IPIN of Manufacturing.
Q1	25.3	27.6	2.3
constant
Q1	25.0	26.0	1.0

3. Breeding Stocks & Orchard Dev't
current				Due to revised data on Forestry. Availabilty of March imports data for fertilizer and pesticides.
Q1	-22.8	5.9	28.7
constant
Q1	1.8	1.4	-0.4

B. Change in Stocks
current				Due to availability of 90 days QSPBI data & availability of March 2010 imports data.
Q1	52,672	45,178	-7494.0
constant
Q1	7,833	6,235	-1598.0

4. Exports
current				Updated BOP data
Q1	26.0	31.0	5.1
constant
Q1	17.9	22.4	4.5

A. Total Mdse Exports
current				No revision
Q1	38.8	38.8	0.0
constant
Q1	28.1	28.1	0.0

B. Non-Factor Services
current				Revised Jan. & Feb and updated March BOP data from BSP
Q1	-0.2	15.2	15.4
constant
Q1	-5.1	9.6	14.7

5. Imports
current
Q1	24.3	26.4	2.1
constant
Q1	20.3	22.4	2.1

A. Total Mdse Imports
current				Availability of March 2010 imports data.
Q1	27.2	28.1	0.9
constant
Q1	21.7	22.7	1.0

B. Non-Factor Services
current				Revised Jan. & Feb. and updated March BOP data from BSP.
Q1	1.2	12.8	11.6
constant
Q1	7.7	20.1	12.3

6. NFIA
current				Revised BOP data; Updated POEA data.
Q1	29.5	18.4	-11.0
constant
Q1	24.9	14.1	-10.9

Production Accounts

Q1 2010 Growth Rates Production Accounts	2009-2010			Reasons for revisions
Q1 2010 Growth Rates Production Accounts	As of May 2010	As of August 2010	Change	Reasons for revisions

1. Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry
current				Availability of the updated price and volume of production of BAS. Revised raw sugar production of SRA. Availability of log production from FMB. Availability of March imports data for pesticides.
Q1	2.9	2.8	-0.1
constant
Q1	-2.5	-2.7	-0.3

2. Industry
current
Q1	18.3	18.5	0.2
constant
Q1	15.7	15.9	0.3

a. Mining and Quarrying
current				No revision
Q1	14.7	14.7	0.0
constant
Q1	7.4	7.4	0.0

b. Manufacturing
current				Updated data in QSPBI. Updated value of production in MISSI. Revision in PPI (for inflation)
Q1	21.0	20.7	-0.3
constant
Q1	20.7	20.4	-0.3

c. Construction
current				Updated data in DBM disbursement Updated data in QSPBI Updated data in Building Permits. Updated WPI for construction materials. (Lumber products & other materials)
Q1	10.3	9.8	-0.4
constant
Q1	4.4	4.3	0.0

d. Electricity, Gas, Water
current				Updated generation data and availabilty of 90 days QSPBI.
Q1	15.4	19.4	3.9
constant
Q1	3.7	8.2	4.5


3. Services
current	10.5	11.0	0.5
Q1
constant
Q1	6.1	7.1	0.9

a. Transport., Comm., Storage
current				Updated QSPBI data Availability of PNR data, FS for communication.
Q1	2.9	1.0	-1.9
constant
Q1	0.7	-1.1	-1.8

b. Trade
current				Updated QSPBI data, availability of FS, availability of full quarter WPI and availability of DOE data. Underestimation of revenue of establishments particularly Caltex.
Q1	11.9	15.8	3.9
constant
Q1	8.5	12.6	4.1

c. Finance
current				Updated 90 days QSPBI data.
Q1	10.8	11.0	0.2
constant
Q1	6.3	6.5	0.2

d. O. Dwellings & R. Estate
current				Updated QSPBI.
Q1	7.1	7.0	-0.1
constant
Q1	5.0	4.9	-0.1

e. Private Services
current				Availability of Q1 90 days QSPBI.
Q1	11.1	10.7	-0.4
constant
Q1	9.5	8.5	-1.0

f. Government Services
current				Updated data on average earnings of government services derived from the 2010 BESF, DBM.
Q1	17.3	17.0	-0.2
constant
Q1	4.1	6.5	2.4

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
current
Q1	11.6	11.9	0.3
constant
Q1	7.3	7.8	0.5

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
current
Q1	13.7	12.7	-1.0
constant
Q1	9.5	8.6	-0.9