NSCB - 1st Quarter 2008 National Accounts - Sources of Revision as of January 2008

Revisions in annual 2005, 2006 and 2007 GDP/GNP estimates

Based on the Revision Policy approved by the NSCB Executive Board and consistent with the international practice on the revision of National Accounts, annual GDP growth estimates for the past three years were revised as follows: for 2005, from 4.9 to 5.0 percent; for 2006, maintained growth of 5.4 percent; and for 2007, from 7.3 to 7.2 percent. For GNP, revisions were as follows: for 2005, from 5.3 to 5.4 percent; for 2006, from 6.1 to 5.4 percent; and for 2007, from 7.8 to 8.0 percent.

Expenditure Accounts

Q1 to Q4 Growth RatesExpenditure Accounts	As of Jan. 2008		As of May 2008		Change		Reasons for revisions
Q1 to Q4 Growth RatesExpenditure Accounts	2005-2006	2006-2007	2005-2006	2006-2007	2005-2006	2006-2007	Reasons for revisions
1. Personal Consumption Expenditure
Current
Q1	13.0	9.3	12.9	9.2	(0.1)	(0.1)	Availability of more updated data/information
Q2	12.7	8.6	12.5	8.3	(0.2)	(0.4)	on expenditure by item
Q3	11.9	8.7	12.0	8.4	0.1	(0.2)
Q4	10.8	10.2	11.3	10.1	0.2	0.2

Constant
Q1	5.3	5.9	5.2	5.9	(0.1)	0.0
Q2	5.4	6.0	5.2	5.6	(0.1)	(0.3)
Q3	5.2	6.0	5.3	5.7	0.1	(0.3)
Q4	5.8	6.3	6.2	6.2	0.3	(0.1)

2. Government Consumption Expenditure
Current
Q1	14.0	9.7	15.3	9.3	1.4	(0.4)
Q2	10.7	11.3	8.8	12.1	(1.9)	0.8
Q3	11.0	11.2	9.8	8.9	(1.2)	(2.3)
Q4	15.0	12.9	14.3	8.0	(0.6)	(4.9)	Availability of the 2005 and 2006 Financial Report from the Commission on Audit (COA).

Constant
Q1	7.6	9.9	9.5	8.5	1.9	(1.4)
Q2	3.3	12.4	8.1	5.0	4.7	(7.4)
Q3	4.5	6.7	14.5	1.1	10.0	(5.6)
Q4	9.9	10.8	9.8	16.1	(0.1)	5.3

3. Capital Formation
Current
Q1	9.0	13.7	10.2	15.0	1.3	1.3
Q2	5.9	8.9	6.6	21.9	0.6	13.0
Q3	17.3	10.1	18.9	10.9	1.6	0.8
Q4	4.8	20.1	6.4	15.8	1.6	(4.3)
Constant
Q1	0.3	6.9	1.5	8.7	1.2	1.8
Q2	1.5	6.8	2.1	17.6	0.6	10.8
Q3	8.0	8.4	13.7	7.6	5.7	(0.7)
Q4	1.8	14.7	3.8	11.0	2.1	(3.7)

A. Fixed Capital
Current
Q1	8.9	15.0	10.6	16.6	1.8	1.6
Q2	4.0	12.0	5.2	24.9	1.2	12.9
Q3	7.7	11.6	9.5	12.8	1.9	1.2
Q4	6.0	15.5	7.1	11.3	1.1	(4.3)
Constant
Q1	2.4	8.5	4.0	10.3	1.6	1.8
Q2	(1.0)	10.1	0.1	20.9	1.1	10.8
Q3	2.1	9.2	8.0	8.8	5.9	(0.4)
Q4	2.2	10.3	3.7	6.7	1.5	(3.6)

1. Construction
Current
Q1	15.0	23.8	17.6	25.7	2.6	2.0	Based on the updated data in building permits from NSO & BESF and DBM for National Government; Updated deflators, WPI Construction Materilas and Average Earnings Index.
Q2	8.3	24.2	10.5	40.6	2.1	16.4
Q3	12.3	21.5	14.2	21.1	2.0	(0.3)
Q4	10.3	22.7	12.6	16.6	2.3	(6.1)

Constant
Q1	8.0	18.5	10.5	20.4	2.5	1.9
Q2	2.4	18.7	4.4	34.4	2.0	15.6
Q3	6.7	17.2	8.6	16.8	1.9	(0.4)
Q4	5.7	17.6	8.0	11.7	2.3	(5.9)

2. Durable Equipment
current
Q1	2.1	6.8	3.1	8.2	0.9	1.4	Due to 2006-2007 Revision of Imports data and revision in Manufacturing for 2007.
Q2	(2.5)	(2.6)	(2.3)	8.6	0.3	11.2
Q3	1.8	1.5	4.0	4.5	2.2	3.0
Q4	2.7	8.8	3.0	5.3	0.2	(3.5)

constant
Q1	(0.7)	2.3	0.5	4.3	1.2	2.0
Q2	(4.1)	1.5	(3.8)	8.8	0.3	7.3
Q3	(1.9)	2.2	8.3	2.3	10.1	0.2
Q4	(0.5)	4.9	0.7	2.6	1.2	(2.2)

3. Breeding Stocks & Orchard Dev't
current							Updated production data from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS) and Forest Management Bureau (FMB).
Q1	13.2	7.4	14.8	7.3	1.6	(0.1)
Q2	15.9	10.9	16.2	9.0	0.3	(1.9)
Q3	16.5	6.7	15.6	6.8	(0.9)	0.1
Q4	1.4	10.3	1.2	10.7	(0.3)	0.3

constant
Q1	(1.7)	2.2	(1.4)	2.0	0.2	(0.2)
Q2	(1.7)	7.4	(1.2)	7.1	0.5	(0.4)
Q3	1.1	3.6	1.0	3.6	(0.1)	0.1
Q4	0.8	5.2	0.6	5.1	(0.2)	(0.1)

B. Change in Stocks
current
Q1	12,168	11,337	11,453	10,066	(715)	(1,271)	Availability of 2006 COA Annual Financial Report
Q2	(7,174)	(14,828)	(8,412)	(17,111)	(1,238)	(2,283)
Q3	6,577	4,140	5,830	2,640	(748)	(1,500)	QSPBI 90 Days & revised MISSI for 2007.
Q4	18,544	32,075	19,830	32,847	1,286	772
							Updated data from BAS, SRA & DOE.
constant
Q1	2,370	1,673	2,216	1,507	(154)	(166)
Q2	(1,945)	(3,876)	(2,251)	(4,484)	(306)	(608)
Q3	1,513	1,225	1,353	822	(160)	(403)
Q4	5,072	8,152	5,481	8,385	409	233

4. Exports
current
Q1	9.9	5.5	10.1	7.0	0.1	1.4
Q2	15.5	(4.5)	18.8	(3.4)	3.3	1.1
Q3	7.3	(3.3)	8.6	(2.9)	1.3	0.4
Q4	0.4	(7.0)	3.7	(2.5)	3.3	4.6

constant
Q1	13.0	9.9	13.1	10.8	0.1	0.9
Q2	21.2	4.2	24.9	4.9	3.7	0.7
Q3	9.2	0.7	10.5	3.7	1.2	3.0
Q4	2.3	(2.0)	6.1	3.9	3.8	5.9

A. Total Mdse Exports
current
Q1	7.0	4.9	7.0	3.3	0.0	(1.6)	Updated December 2006 Exports data
Q2	15.1	(6.3)	15.1	(5.9)	0.0	0.3
Q3	7.1	(8.9)	7.1	(8.9)	0.0	0.0	Updated deflator.
Q4	(0.9)	(9.9)	(0.9)	(5.5)	0.0	4.4

constant
Q1	11.4	10.7	11.4	8.2	0.0	(2.5)
Q2	21.7	5.9	21.7	6.3	0.0	0.5
Q3	10.5	(3.4)	10.5	(0.2)	0.0	3.2
Q4	2.2	(3.7)	2.2	2.7	0.0	6.5

B. Non-Factor Services
current
Q1	29.8	9.1	30.7	27.2	0.9	18.1	Availability of actual tourist receipts data from DOT.
Q2	17.9	6.6	42.6	9.9	24.7	3.3
Q3	8.3	33.7	18.5	33.3	10.2	(0.4)	Revised BOP data.
Q4	8.6	9.8	33.4	11.9	24.8	2.1
							Revised FTS data.
constant
Q1	21.2	5.9	21.7	23.1	0.4	17.2	Revised FOREX data.
Q2	18.8	(4.8)	41.8	(1.4)	23.1	3.4
Q3	1.0	29.3	10.2	29.0	9.3	(0.3)
Q4	2.9	6.4	25.9	8.7	23.0	2.4

5. Imports
current
Q1	0.9	1.4	2.7	1.0	1.8	(0.4)
Q2	6.2	(9.5)	6.3	(9.4)	0.2	0.1
Q3	0.7	(1.6)	1.3	(2.0)	0.5	(0.4)
Q4	0.3	(2.7)	0.9	(1.7)	0.6	1.1

constant
Q1	0.7	(2.1)	2.8	(1.8)	2.1	0.2
Q2	4.0	(11.2)	4.2	(10.5)	0.2	0.7
Q3	1.2	(5.5)	1.0	(5.0)	(0.2)	0.4
Q4	1.4	(2.3)	(0.4)	0.2	(1.8)	2.5

A. Total Mdse Imports
current
Q1	0.2	0.6	1.8	0.5	1.7	(0.2)
Q2	6.5	(10.1)	6.6	(10.0)	0.2	0.1
Q3	0.8	(2.2)	1.2	(2.7)	0.5	(0.5)
Q4	(0.2)	(2.7)	0.4	(1.6)	0.6	1.0

constant							Updated and revised
Q1	0.1	(3.4)	2.0	(3.0)	1.9	0.5	2006 and 2007 FTS data.
Q2	4.1	(12.3)	4.3	(11.6)	0.2	0.7
Q3	0.8	(6.8)	0.6	(6.4)	(0.3)	0.4
Q4	0.3	(3.2)	(1.6)	(0.8)	(1.9)	2.5

B. Non-Factor Services
current
Q1	11.5	11.2	15.9	7.8	4.4	(3.4)	Updated BOP data for 2006 & 2007
Q2	1.1	0.2	1.2	1.4	0.1	1.2
Q3	0.4	10.9	1.7	10.7	1.2	(0.2)
Q4	7.2	(3.8)	8.0	(2.1)	0.7	1.7

constant
Q1	10.7	18.2	15.1	14.5	4.4	(3.7)
Q2	2.8	10.7	3.0	12.0	0.1	1.3
Q3	8.4	22.3	9.7	22.0	1.3	(0.2)
Q4	17.6	11.1	18.4	12.9	0.8	1.8

6. NFIA
current
Q1	21.5	18.3	12.5	14.9	(9.0)	(3.4)	Updated POEA data on deployment.
Q2	24.0	19.7	15.3	28.4	(8.7)	8.6	Updated BSP data on BOP investment income and expense.
Q3	18.1	27.5	6.1	35.5	(12.0)	8.0
Q4	17.7	0.7	13.8	4.3	(4.0)	3.6

constant
Q1	13.4	14.5	5.0	11.3	(8.4)	(3.1)
Q2	16.3	17.1	8.7	25.3	(7.6)	8.2
Q3	11.2	24.2	1.3	31.9	(9.9)	7.7
Q4	12.4	(3.0)	8.6	0.6	(3.8)	3.6

Production Accounts

Q1 to Q4 Growth RatesProduction Accounts	As of Jan. 2008		As of May 2008		Change		Reasons for revisions
Q1 to Q4 Growth RatesProduction Accounts	2005-2006	2006-2007	2005-2006	2006-2007	2005-2006	2006-2007	Reasons for revisions
1. Agriculture, Fishery, Forestry
current
Q1	13.0	3.7	12.9	4.0	0.0	0.3	More updated production data from BAS. Complete reports of all regions on log production from FMB. Adjustment in the weighted price of inspected crop, livestock & poultry.
Q2	11.9	6.1	11.6	6.5	(0.3)	0.4
Q3	11.0	7.7	10.3	8.3	(0.7)	0.7
Q4	4.8	18.2	5.1	17.9	0.3	(0.3)

constant
Q1	4.1	4.1	3.4	4.0	(0.6)	(0.1)
Q2	6.7	4.5	7.0	4.2	0.3	(0.3)
Q3	3.6	5.8	3.6	5.7	0.0	(0.1)
Q4	1.7	5.8	1.7	5.7	(0.1)	(0.2)

2. Industry
current
Q1	11.0	10.8	11.3	11.6	0.3	0.8
Q2	10.1	11.2	10.5	14.8	0.3	3.7
Q3	10.2	7.4	10.4	7.7	0.2	0.2
Q4	8.8	7.7	9.1	7.2	0.3	(0.5)

constant
Q1	5.3	6.3	5.6	6.6	0.3	0.4
Q2	4.4	7.8	4.7	10.3	0.3	2.5
Q3	4.9	6.6	5.2	6.6	0.2	0.0
Q4	3.6	5.8	3.9	4.9	0.3	(0.9)

a. Mining and Quarrying
current
Q1	18.9	35.6	18.9	48.2	0.0	12.6
Q2	33.1	60.1	33.1	86.3	0.0	26.1	Updated Production Report from the Mines & Geosciences Bureau (MGB) & Dept of Energy (DOE)
Q3	18.8	12.0	18.8	18.5	0.0	6.5
Q4	4.1	13.9	4.1	12.9	0.0	(1.0)	Availability of 90 days QSPBI

constant
Q1	1.8	13.2	1.8	14.7	0.0	1.5
Q2	3.3	34.6	3.3	38.9	0.0	4.3
Q3	(5.1)	22.2	(5.1)	24.0	0.0	1.8
Q4	(25.1)	27.7	(25.1)	21.5	0.0	(6.3)

b. Manufacturing
current
Q1	10.2	7.5	10.2	7.6	0.0	0.1
Q2	8.6	5.4	8.6	5.3	0.0	0.0	Revised and updated value of production from MISSI (NSO), (2005-2007). Availability of December data on cement production from CEMAP. Incorporated revenue data of Manufacturing establishments sourced from QSPBI, NSO.
Q3	9.2	5.0	9.2	5.0	0.0	0.0
Q4	9.0	5.4	9.0	6.1	0.0	0.7	Updated DOE data fro Oct-Dec 2007.

constant
Q1	5.0	4.0	5.0	4.1	0.0	0.1
Q2	4.2	3.4	4.2	3.4	0.0	0.0
Q3	4.4	3.7	4.4	3.7	0.0	0.0
Q4	4.8	2.5	4.8	2.6	0.0	0.1

c. Construction
current
Q1	15.8	24.0	18.6	25.7	2.8	1.7	Based on the updated data in Building Permits from NSO &
Q2	8.7	25.3	11.0	41.9	2.3	16.6	BESF -DBM for National Government
Q3	12.7	21.6	14.8	20.9	2.1	(0.6)
Q4	11.3	23.3	13.8	16.8	2.5	(6.6)

constant							Updated deflators, WPI and Average Earnings Index.
Q1	10.7	20.0	13.4	21.7	2.7	1.6
Q2	4.0	20.9	6.1	37.0	2.2	16.0
Q3	8.3	18.5	10.3	17.8	2.0	(0.6)
Q4	7.6	18.4	10.0	13.4	2.4	(5.0)

d. Electricity, Gas, Water
current
Q1	8.8	9.1	8.8	9.1	0.0	0.0
Q2	12.8	8.1	12.8	8.1	0.0	0.0
Q3	10.9	6.4	10.9	6.4	0.0	0.0
Q4	6.5	6.0	6.5	3.4	0.0	(2.6)
							Availability of Q4 2007 NPC data and 90 days Q4 2007 QSPBI.
constant							MERALCO data on energy sold for Dec. 2007.
Q1	3.9	4.4	3.9	4.4	0.0	0.0	Q4 2007 MWCI data, revised imputation for NPC and MWCI.
Q2	7.4	5.4	7.4	5.4	0.0	0.0
Q3	9.2	8.4	9.2	8.4	0.0	0.0
Q4	4.5	10.6	4.5	8.3	0.0	(2.3)

3. Services
current
Q1	13.0	11.0	12.8	10.6	(0.3)	(0.4)
Q2	10.9	10.3	10.5	10.1	(0.4)	(0.2)
Q3	11.1	11.2	10.8	10.5	(0.3)	(0.7)
Q4	12.4	11.7	11.9	10.2	(0.5)	(1.6)

constant
Q1	6.7	8.8	6.5	8.4	(0.2)	(0.4)
Q2	5.7	8.4	5.4	8.4	(0.3)	(0.1)
Q3	5.8	8.4	5.6	8.0	(0.2)	(0.4)
Q4	8.4	9.0	8.2	7.8	(0.2)	(1.2)

a. Transport., Comm., Storage
current
Q1	12.1	8.0	12.1	8.0	0.0	0.0	Updated QSPBI, updated MRT, PAL data, availability of Financial Statement S(FS)
Q2	5.3	8.0	5.3	8.0	0.0	0.0
Q3	9.0	5.1	9.0	5.1	0.0	0.0	Updates on prices
Q4	5.8	7.4	5.8	7.6	0.0	0.1

constant
Q1	6.9	10.5	6.9	10.5	0.0	0.0
Q2	5.4	9.6	5.4	9.6	0.0	0.0
Q3	6.1	5.8	6.1	5.8	0.0	0.0
Q4	7.0	7.1	7.0	7.4	0.0	0.4

b. Trade
current
Q1	13.6	12.9	13.6	11.2	0.0	(1.6)	Updated QSPBI and availability of Financial Statements (FS).
Q2	12.5	12.3	12.5	11.1	0.0	(1.2)
Q3	12.1	14.2	12.1	12.4	0.0	(1.9)
Q4	13.5	14.7	13.5	12.3	0.0	(2.4)

constant
Q1	5.3	8.8	5.3	7.2	0.0	(1.5)	Availability of GRPI and GWPI
Q2	5.0	8.5	5.0	7.6	0.0	(0.9)
Q3	5.5	10.9	5.5	9.1	0.0	(1.8)
Q4	8.1	10.7	8.1	8.8	0.0	(1.9)

c. Finance
current
Q1	22.9	18.1	23.0	19.7	0.1	1.6	Availability of QSPBI , 90 days and Financial Statement.
Q2	17.6	14.5	16.8	16.8	(0.9)	2.4
Q3	11.9	11.8	12.0	14.2	0.0	2.4
Q4	21.2	17.1	21.7	14.4	0.5	(2.7)

constant
Q1	14.6	14.8	14.7	16.3	0.1	1.5
Q2	10.0	11.8	9.2	14.2	(0.8)	2.3
Q3	5.5	9.0	5.5	11.4	0.0	2.4
Q4	15.6	13.3	16.1	10.7	0.5	(2.6)

d. O. Dwellings & R. Estate
current
Q1	8.1	6.9	8.1	6.9	0.0	0.0
Q2	9.3	6.8	9.3	6.5	0.0	(0.3)	Updates on the residential building permits
Q3	11.0	7.2	11.0	7.1	0.0	(0.1)
Q4	9.4	6.4	9.4	6.1	0.0	(0.3)	Updates on reported damaged houses from NDCC.

constant
Q1	3.4	5.5	3.4	5.5	0.0	0.0	Availability of the Q4 2006 QSPBI 90 days
Q2	5.2	6.3	5.2	6.0	0.0	(0.3)
Q3	7.6	6.9	7.6	6.8	0.0	0.0
Q4	6.6	5.4	6.6	5.0	0.0	(0.3)

e. Private Services
current
Q1	13.0	13.8	13.0	13.8	0.0	0.0	Availabilty of Q4 2007 QSPBI 90-days data.
Q2	10.4	13.3	10.4	13.3	0.0	0.0
Q3	11.1	13.2	11.1	13.2	0.0	0.0
Q4	13.0	12.5	13.0	11.3	0.0	(1.2)

constant
Q1	7.7	8.4	7.7	8.4	0.0	0.0
Q2	5.4	9.1	5.4	9.1	0.0	0.0
Q3	6.1	8.7	6.1	8.7	0.0	0.0
Q4	8.4	8.8	8.4	7.6	0.0	(1.2)

f. Government Services
current
Q1	10.8	3.5	8.9	2.5	(1.9)	(1.0)	Availability of benchmark levels from COA 2005
Q2	11.8	3.6	9.4	3.1	(2.5)	(0.4)	Annual Financial Report (AFR)
Q3	10.8	10.2	8.6	7.0	(2.2)	(3.1)
Q4	12.6	8.5	9.0	6.0	(3.6)	(2.4)

constant
Q1	3.7	2.3	1.9	1.7	(8.9)	(1.8)
Q2	4.9	2.8	2.6	2.4	(9.3)	(1.2)
Q3	4.2	4.3	2.1	3.4	(8.7)	(6.8)
Q4	6.1	3.9	2.7	2.9	(9.8)	(5.5)

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
current
Q1	12.4	9.8	12.3	9.9	0.0	0.1
Q2	10.8	10.0	10.6	11.1	(0.2)	1.1
Q3	10.8	9.5	10.6	9.3	(0.2)	(0.2)
Q4	10.0	11.4	9.9	10.4	(0.1)	(1.0)

constant
Q1	5.7	7.1	5.6	7.0	(0.1)	(0.1)
Q2	5.5	7.5	5.5	8.3	0.0	0.7
Q3	5.1	7.4	5.1	7.1	0.0	(0.2)
Q4	5.5	7.4	5.5	6.4	0.0	(0.9)

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
current
Q1	13.1	10.5	12.3	10.2	(0.7)	(0.3)
Q2	11.8	10.9	11.0	10.3	(0.9)	(0.6)
Q3	11.3	10.9	10.3	12.6	(1.0)	1.6
Q4	10.6	10.6	10.2	11.2	(0.4)	0.6

constant
Q1	6.3	7.7	5.5	7.3	(0.8)	(0.4)
Q2	6.4	8.4	5.7	9.8	(0.7)	1.3
Q3	5.6	8.8	4.8	9.1	(0.8)	0.3
Q4	6.1	6.5	5.7	6.0	(0.3)	(0.5)