NSCB - First to Third Quarter 2002 GNP - Technical Notes on the Third Quarter 2002 Estimates

The NSCB has started incorporating in its website technical notes on the PSNA for a better appreciation of our national accounts. Reference should also be made to the earlier technical notes (series 2002-Q3) for the current national accounting practices adopted in the Philippines.

Manufacturing

A major data source for the estimation of the GVA for the manufacturing sector is the Monthly Survey of Selected Industries (MISSI) of the National Statistics Office (NSO). The MISSI covers largely the big players in the industry. For this quarter, the MISSI data in the form of the Value of Production Index (VAPI) and Volume of Production Index (VOPI) by subsectors that were available at estimation time were only for July and August.

The MISSI data were validated with other indicators and data sets like the Foreign Trade Statistics from NSO, electricity generated from the National Power Corporation (NPC), and kilowatt sales of electricity by type of consumer from Manila Electric Company (MECO) among others. Other data sources for manufacturing include the reports of: the Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) on prices, inventories and production of sugar, the Department of Energy data on petroleum products, the report of the Philippine Cement Corporation (PhilCEMCOR) on cement production and the Chamber of Automotive Manufactures of the Philippines Incorporated (CAMPI) figures on automotive sales.

Mining and Quarrying

The surge in mining output was due to the inclusion of natural gas production at Malampaya, classified under crude oil based on the Philippine Standard Commodity Classification (PSCC), for the second and third quarters of 2002.

Commercial sales of natural gas started in January 2002 and production for this quarter will be reflected in the first quarter estimates of 2002 in the May 2003 series, in line with the PSNA Revision Policy (NSCB Resolution No. 8-97) which provides for the updating of the quarterly accounts for each quarterly estimation round to be limited to the immediately preceding quarter, and for the rest of the past quarters to be done only during the May round of estimates.

Merchandise Exports and Imports

Estimates for exports and imports are primarily based on the Foreign Trade Statistics compiled by NSO. Where data are not complete for the whole quarter, the trend derived from the available months of the quarter is used to project the estimates for the month for which data are not available.

Merchandise exports are valued at f.o.b. (free on board) and are adjusted for national accounts purposes by deducting returned goods, personal effects, goods temporarily exported, gifts and donations in kind. Hence, there is a difference between NSO export figure and that of the national accounts. Merchandise exports are expressed in pesos using the average midpoint of the “buying/selling” exchange rate. The same is the case for merchandise imports but these are valued at c.i.f. (cost, insurance and freight).

The 1993 SNA recommends that exports/imports of goods and services should be valued at f.o.b. The insurance and freight should be included under exports/imports of non-factor services. The NSCB plans to implement the 1993 SNA by 2004.

For constant price estimates, each of the top twenty-two merchandise exports at the seven-digit level of the commodity classification (PSCC Revision 2) is deflated using the corresponding trend in unit prices based on the Foreign Trade Statistics (FTS). The rest of the merchandise exports are deflated at the two-digit level of the commodity classification. Merchandise imports are deflated at the two-digit level of the commodity classification.

Consistency of the Quarterly National Accounts with the Balance of Payments

Most of the items in the BOP are harmonized with the variables in the National Accounts. However, there are still some differences for certain items. For the inflow of compensation (recorded under the net factor income from abroad), the NSCB estimate is based on the deployment and salary data of OFW from the POEA. What are reflected in the BOP are the remittances from abroad that pass through the banking system. The travel item under the imports of non-factor services is likewise independently estimated using indicators from the DOT. Figures for this item in the BOP are based on bank reports.

Revisions for Q2 2002

Revisions for Q2 2002 estimates were done in accordance with our PSNA Policy on Revision. Estimates were based on the updated data from the MISSI, Quarterly Survey of Philippine Business and Industry (QSPBI), BOP, and other major data sources of the PSNA. A table on the sources of revision is included in the publication of the National Accounts of the Philippine (as of November 2002)

For inquiries please contact Mr. Raymundo J. Talento at (632) 895-2425 or e-mail him at rj.talento@nscb.gov.ph.


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