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SexyStats

Should We Feel Secure or Insecure
During the Impending Elections?

by Jose Ramon G. Albert, Ph.D 1

Filipino version

 Should We Feel Secure or Insecure During the Impending Elections?Two weeks ago, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) released a Beyond the Numbers article on some interesting statistics related to our celebration of Valentine’s Day2, which caught a lot of media attention.

There are also a number of other celebrations during this month, including the celebration of the Chinese (Lunar) New Year, the Panagbenga (or Baguio Flower Festival), and several religious feasts of Catholics, to include the Feast Day of Our Lady of Candles (Nuestra Señora de Candelaria) celebrated especially in Jaro, Iloilo, and Ash Wednesday. The latter marks the first day of the Catholic season of Lent, a period of preparation for the commemoration of the passion, death, and resurrection of Jesus Christ.

While no one escapes death, yet no one deserves to meet a ghastly end. Unfortunately, some of our own countrymen meet the angel of death in rather horrifying circumstances. One such case is Mr. Anthony Ridao, our staff in NSCB Regional Division XII, whose only mistake was that his vehicle was mistakenly identified as part of the convoy of the Mangudadatu’s, and thus he met his end together with 57 other victims of the famed Maguindanao massacre in 2009. In Anthony’s memory, we decided to examine the available statistics on crime in this article, especially on account of the impending election periods.

While polls conducted by some non-government organizations suggest that peace and order are not priority concerns of most Filipinos, it may still be of interest to determine whether Pinoys have a reason to feel secure or insecure in the coming May elections. In this article, however, we shall give particular attention to describing the crime statistics during the past four years, i.e., from 2009 to 2012, since the Philippine National Police (PNP) implemented an improved system3 for crime reporting which does not allow us to compare statistics on reported crime in years previous to 2009, with data starting from 2009. Be that as it may, with the available crime statistics, we may be able to examine across regions in the country, where crime is more rampant and where crime is less rampant. In addition, we may be interested to determine whether patterns on the reported volume of crime observed in the regions are related to living standards, or other aspects of income distribution.

But before we describe these “sexy statistics”, let us firstly indicate what are the trends in the crime statistics, as seen from the latest official data on crimes from the PNP…

Crime incidence/volume has been consistently decreasing from 2009 to 2012… but at a decelerating rate!

From 502,665 reported crimes in 2009, the volume of crimes went down to 324,083 in 2010 – a 35.5 percent decrease between the two-year period. In 2011, reported crime was registered at 246,958, down to 217,812 reported crimes in 2012 – a further (but slower) decline of 11.8 percent. (Table 1)

Note, that while the reported volume of crimes committed between 2011 and 2012 has decreased year on year, the 2012 crime figures still translates to an average of 597 crimes being committed per day in the country!

Crimes are classified into index crimes and non-index crimes. Index crimes include two components: crimes against persons, e.g., murder, homicide, physical injuries and rape; and crimes against property such as robbery, theft, carnapping and cattle rustling. Non-index crimes pertain to all other crimes not classified as index crimes.

In 2012, index crimes was registered at 129,161, accounting for 59.3 percent of the total reported crimes in the country. Specifically, crimes against persons accounted for 23.4 percent – murder at 3.9 percent, homicide at 1.4 percent, physical injuries at 16.0 percent, and rape at 2.2 percent. This means that, on the average, for every four crimes committed last year, one is a crime against person. (Table 2)

Giving you a general sense on the present crime situation in the country… now, we would like to know the answer to the question, “Are there more crimes committed during election years?” and the related question, “Should we feel secure or insecure during elections?”

For the period between 1999 and 20083, the volume of reported crimes during election years 2001, 2004 and 2007 showed decreases in reported crimes – but in years immediately following election years, increases were observed in two out of three years (2002 and 2008). In terms of crime rate, the same is observed as it has been generally decreasing between 2000 and 2008, with only two out of nine years exhibiting an increase (still 2002 and 2008). (Table 3) Is this an indication that we can expect less crimes during election years? There are those who claim that reported crimes suffer from underreporting, but what about homicides (which are likely to get reported). If we were to examine the trends in the volume of intentional homicides, based on data compiled by the United Nations across countries, and look at these numbers in South East Asia economies, we will find that the Philippines fares comparatively well to our neighbors. So, it’s not only more fun, but more safe in the Philippines, at least compared to Myanmar and Indonesia, which have far worse homicide statistics. If we examine the trends in homicides, we will find no significant difference in homicide statistics (whether rates, or volume per 100 thousand persons) in the Philippines between an election year and a non-election year. (Table 4) Thus, the public perception of worsening crime statistics may actually just be more an issue of information hype given by media! (Bato bato sa langit, huwag sanang magalit ang media). Checkpoints and the gun ban during elections are meant to be crime deterrents but have they been effective? Hmmm…that remains to be fully explored.

For the period 2009 and 20123, decreases were observed in all of the years – regardless if it’s an election year or not. But it can be stressed that the highest decrease was observed during the 2010 election year (35.5 percent decrease). (Table 3)

Now, let us focus particularly on crimes against persons. And let us give more attention to the years 2010 and 2012 since the former was when we last held elections while the latter will provide us the latest data available. So, where are crimes against persons more rampant across regions in the country?

In terms of crime volume, the three regions which reported the highest number of crimes against persons between 2010 and 2012 are NCR, Regions III and IVA. Specifically, in 2012, on the average, there were 30 crimes against persons that were reported in NCR - two murders, one homicide, 25 physical injuries, and two rape cases! Araw araw yan ha, noong 2012! (Table 5)

Accounting for the population, i.e., in terms of crime rate, CAR consistently registered as the region with the highest number of crimes per 100,000 population – 342, 141, and 391 crimes in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Further, during the 2010 election year, Regions III and IX ranked as 2nd and 3rd highest with 151 and 123 crimes per 100,000 population, respectively. Last year, Regions X and XII were included in the list of regions with highest crime rate with 343 and 248 crimes per 100,000 population, respectively. (Table 6)

On the other hand, ARMM and Region IVA figured in the list of regions with the lowest crime rate in 2010 and 2012. ARMM, in particular, registered a crime rate of 19 and 37 crimes per 100,000 population in 2010 and 2012, respectively. Not so many crimes? Peaceful talaga? Hmmmm… Lest we forget, these statistics only cover those reported crimes (Table 6)

Can we find apparent patterns on high or low crime volume/rates with income, poverty, or economic growth? A World Bank study by Fajnzylber, Lederman, and Loayza (1998)4 on the Determinants of Crime Rates in Latin America and the World, identified two important determinants of crime rates – inequality and deterrence.

When we consider (see Table 7) the rankings of regions in terms of crime rate per 100,000 population, and the gini coefficient (which is a measure of how well distributed income is in an area/region), as well as other socio-economic indicators, such as poverty incidence (among the population), and gross regional domestic product growth rate, we find that for 20095, the income inequality is far more correlated with crime statistics than income poverty or economic growth, confirming the 1998 World Bank study. That is, areas with lower income inequality tend to have lower crime rates. To illustrate, in 2009, ARMM posted the lowest income inequality (0.2948) and the lowest crime rate (54 per 100,000 population). Region X, on the other hand, posted the highest crime rate (1,069 per 100,000 population) as well as the 3rd highest income inequality (0.4737). (Table 7) Thus, it is important for our economic managers to find ways of reducing income inequalities with more income redistribution interventions, such as progressive income taxation, and the conditional cash transfer. These interventions are essentially one of the pathways towards inclusive growth – with every Filipino being part in the growing Philippine economy!

As the campaign period for national positions in the May 2013 elections officially started on 12 February 2013, let us keep all these statistics in mind. And let all of us – politicians or not, contribute to less income inequality and a safer society! So that not only can we say that “It’s more fun in the Philippines!” but also, “It’s more safe in the Philippines!”

_______________________

Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the author at jrg.albert@nscb.gov.ph

 

Filipino Version

 Seguridad o Pangamba sa Panahon ng Eleksyon?"
Ni Jose Ramon G. Albert, Ph.D.1

Kamakailan lang, lumikha ng malaking storya sa media ang inilabas na “Beyond the Numbers” web article ng National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) ukol sa ilang estadistika na may kaugnayan sa pagdiriwang ng Valentine’s Day o Araw ng mga Puso2.

Sa buwan ding ito ng Pebrero, marami pang kasayahan ang ipinagdiriwang tulad ng Chinese New Year, Panagbenga (Baguio Flower Festival) at ilang pang kapistahang pang-Katoliko tulad ng Ash Wednesday at Nuestra Señora de Candelariana ipinagdiriwang  sa maraming bayan tulad ng Jaro, Iloilo. Ang Ash Wednesday ay nagtatakda para sa mga Katoliko Romano bilang unang araw o simula ng Kwaresma o Mahal Na Araw na kung saan inaala-ala ang hirap, kamatayan at muling pagkabuhay ng Panginoong Hesukristo.

Bagama’t walang sinumang makakaiwas sa kamatayan, wala rin naman yatang magnanais na sapitin ang isang masaklap  na katapusan ng buhay. Sa kasamaang palad, may ilan tayong kababayan na dumanas ng kahindik-hindik na kamatayan sa hindi inaasahang pangyayari. Isang halimbawang naganap sa isang staff ng NSCB na si G. Anthony Ridao ng Regional Division XII. Si G. Ridao ay isa mga biktima ng Maguindanao massacre noong 2009 na kung saan ang kanyang sasakyan ay minalas na napasabay sa convoy ng mga sasakyan ng pamilyang Mangudadatu na naging sanhi ng kanyang maagap na kamatayan kasama ang 57 na iba pang biktima. Sa ala-ala ng aming kasamahang si Anthony, ipinasiya naming na pag-aralan sa artikulobg ito ang ilang available statistics ukol sa kriminalidad lalo na sa panahong nalalapit ang isang eleksyon.

Bagamat, hindi prioridad ng karamihang Pinoy ang isyu ukol sa katahimikan at kaayusan o peace and order batay sa mga survey na isinagawa ng ilang non-government organizations, dapat pa ring malaman ng publiko kung may dahilan ba tayong mga Pinoy na makaramdam ng seguridad o agam-agam ngayong nalalapit na eleksyon. Sa artikulong ito, mas bibigyang pansin ang mga  datos o estadistika lamang ukol sa krimen (crime statistics) sa loob ng nakaraang apat na taon (2009-2012). Ito ay dahil sa mas mahusay na sistema3 ng crime reporting na ipinapatupad ng Philippine National Police (PNP) mula noong taong 2009. Samakatwid, hindi maaring maihambing ang mga reported crime statistics na nakuha ng PNP bago dumating ang taong 2009, sa mga datos mula noong 2009. Ganoon pa man, maari pa rin nating mapag-aralan ang mga kasalukuyang estadistika ng PNP mula sa iba’t ibang rehiyon ng bansa na naglalarawan kung saan lugar maraming krimeng nagaganap at saan mga rehiyon na hindi masyado mataas ang kriminalidad. Dagdag rito, malalaman din natin kung may batayan ba ang mga nauulat na dami ng krimeng nagaganap sa iba’t ibang rehiyon sa bansa sa uri ng pamumuhay at iba pang aspeto ng mga kinikita ng Pinoy.

Subalit bago natin ilarawan ang “sexy statistics” na ito, alamin muna natin kung ano ang “trend” ng crime statistics mula sa kasalukuyang datos ng PNP ukol sa kriminalidad.

Patuloy na bumababa ang crime incidence/volume  mula 2009-2012… subalit bumabagal ang pagbagsak nito!

Mula sa 502,665 na naiulat na krimen (reported crime) noong 2009, ang dami o volume of crimes ay bumaba sa 324,083 noong 2010 – Ibig sabihin sa loob ng dalawang taon,  35.5% ang ibinaba ng volume ng crimes. Samantala, noong 2011, ang naiulat na krimen (reported crime) ay naitala sa 246,958, na mas mababa sa 217,812 na naiulat noong 2012. Bumaba, subalit mas mabagal na 11.8%. (Table 1)

Mapapansin, na bagamat ang reported volume of crimes na naitala noong 2011 at 2012 ay nabawasan sa magkasunod na taon, ang datos naman para sa 2012 ay nagsasabi na mayroong 597 (average) krimeng nagaganap sa bansa bawat araw!

Dapat nating malaman na ang kriminalidad ay nahahati sa dalawang uri:  ang index crimes at non-index crimes. Kabilang sa index crimes ang crimes against persons, (tulad ng murder, homicide, physical injuries and rape); at  crimes against property tulad ng  robbery, theft, carnapping and cattle rustling.  Samantala, ang non-index crimes ay lahat ng crimes na di itinuturing na index crimes.

Noong 2012, ang naitalang index crimes ay umabot sa bilang na129,161, ibig sabihin, halos anim sa sampung (59.3%) naiulat na krimen (total reported crimes) sa bansa ay pawang nabibilang sa index crime. Kung hihimayin ang distribution ng index crimes sa bansa noong 2012, ang crimes against persons ay nagtala ng 23.4%, murder (3.9%), homicide (1.4%), physical injuries (16.0%) at rape (2.2). Ibig sabihin nito, sa bawat apat na krimeng nagaganap noong nakaraang taon, isa dito ay crime against person (Table 2)

Sa mga mga nabanggit na estadistika, nakita natin ang kasalukuyang sitwasyon ng kriminalidad sa bansa. Ngayon, nais nating malaman ang sagot sa katanungang,  “Mas marami nga bang nagaganap na kriminalidad tuwing eleksyon?” at ang susunod na tanong, “Dapat nga ba tayong makaramdam ng seguridad o pangamba sa panahon ng eleksyon?”

Sa pagitan ng mga taong 1999 at 20083,  ang  volume of reported crimes sa panahon ng eleksyon 2001, 2004 at 2007 ay nagpamalas ng pagbaba ng reported crimes. Subalit pagkalipas ng mga nabanggit na election years, mapapansin na tumaas ang reported crimes, dalawa sa tatlong taon na may eleksyon, (2002 at 2008).  Kung crime rate ang pag-uusapan, halos ganito rin ang nangyari. Bumababa sa pangkahalatan ang crime rate sa pagitan ng 2000 at 2008, kung saan sa loob ng siyam na taon, tanging sa dalawang taon (2002 at 2008)  lamang ito nagpamalas ng pagtaas. (Table 3)

Indikasyon ba ito na makaka-asa tayo ng mas konting krimen ngayong panahon ng eleksyon? Sinasabi ng iba na ang bilang ng reported crimes ay hindi naman tamang naiuulat (o nagkakaroon ng underreporting), subalit paano naman ang homicide (na dapat naiuulat). Kung pag-aaralan natin ang trend ng volume of international homicides, ayon sa datos ng United Nations  mula sa ibat ibang bansa lalo sa South East Asia, masasabi natin na ang Pilipinas ay medyo maayos ang sitwasyon kumpara sa  ating mga karatig na bansa. Kaya nga, di lang dapat sabihin “it’s more fun in the Philippines”, kundi “it’s more safe in the Philippines, lalo na pag napansin ang Myanmar at Indonesia na nagtala ng mas mataas na homicide statistics kaysa sa atin.

Kung pag-aaralan naman natin ang trends ng homicide statistics (rates o  volume man sa kada-100,000 tao) sa Pilipinas, masasabi nating wala itong malaking ipinagka-iba tuwing panahon ng  eleksyon o wala mang eleksyon sa bansa. (Table 4). Samakatuwid, ang sinasabing lumulubha ang crime statistics sa bansa ay kathang isip lamang at maaring bunga lamang ng tinatawag na media  information hype! (o pagbibigay ng maraming atensyon ng medya sa krimen) (Bato bato sa langit, huwag sanang magalit ang media). Tuwing eleksyon, alalahaning nagtatayo ng mga checkpoints at ipinagbabawal ang baril upang maiwasan ang ibat ibang uri ng kriminalidad. Subalit ang tanong, epektibo ba ang mga  ito?  Hmmm…yan ang dapat pang suriin nang maigi.

Noong mga taong 2009 at 20123, nagkaroon ng pagkabawas sa volume of reported crimes sa lahat ng taon, may eleksyon man o wala. Subalit dapat bigyan diin, na ang pinakamalaking pagbaba (35.5%) ay naitala noong 2010 kung saan panahon ng eleksyon (Table 3)

Ngayon, bigyan pansin naman natin ang crimes against persons  lalo na sa mga taong 2010 (election year)  at 2012 batay sa available na datos. Saan nga ba malawakan ang crime against persons sa lahat ng rehiyon sa bansa?

Sa crime volume, ang tatlong rehiyon na may pinakamataas na bilang ng krimen laban sa isang tao o mga tao  (crimes against persons) sa pagitan ng 2010 at 2012 ay ang National Capital Region (NCR), Regions III at IV-A.  Noong 2012, ang NCR ay may naitalang 30 crimes against persons (on the average), kung hihimayin, ang bilang na ito,  2 (murder), 1 (homicide), 25 (physical injuries) at 2 ((rape). Araw araw yan ha, noong 2012!  (Table 5)

Kung ibabase sa populasyon ang pag-uusapan, ukol sa crime rate, ang Cordillera Autonomous Region (CAR) ang sa tuwina ay may pinakamataas na dami ng krimen sa bawa’t 100,000 populasyon. Umabot ito sa 342, 141, at 391 krimen noong 2010, 2011, at 2012, ayon sa pagkaka-sunud-sunod.  Dagdag pa rito, noong 2010 na election year, sumunod ang Region III (151) at Region IX (123) sa CAR (342) sa pagkakaroon ng pinakamataas na bilang na dami ng krimen sa bawat 100,000 populasyon.

Sa kabilang dako, ang Autonomouos Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM)  at Region IV-A ang napabilang naman sa mga rehiyon na may pinakamababang crime rate noong  2010 at 2012. Ang ARMM ay nagkaroon lamang ng 19 at 17 crimes per 100,000 population noong 2010 at  2012, ayon sa pagkakasunod. Ganoon lang kaunti? Peaceful talaga?  Hmmmm… Wag nating kalimutan, na ang mga estadistikang ito ay batay lamang sa reported crimes (Table 6).

Makakakita ba tayo ng batayan kung may kaugnayan ang mataas or mababang crime volume/rates sa kita, kahirapan at kaunlaran? Batay sa World Bank study ni Fajnzylber, Lederman, and Loayza (1998)4 ukol sa  “Determinants of Crime Rates in Latin America and the World”, kinilala ang dalawang mahalagang may kaugnayan sa crime rates – ang inequality at deterrence

Kung titingnan natin ang ranking ng mga rehiyon (Table 7) batay  sa crime rate per 100,000 population, at ng tinatawag na Gini coefficient (na batayan kung paano mahusay na pinaghahatian ang kita sa isang lugar/rehiyon), maging ng iba pang socio-economic indicators, tulad ng bahagi ng populasyon na mahirap (o poverty incidence among the population), at bahagdan ng pag-akyat (o growth rate) ng gross regional domestic product, mababatid na ang hindi pagpapantay na kita (o income inequality) ang may malaking kaugnayan sa crime statistics kaysa sa income poverty at kaunlarang pang-ekonomiya. Ito ay nagbibigay patotoo sa pag-aaral ng World Bank noong 1998. Ibig sabihin, ang mga lugar na may mas mababang hindi pantay na kita (income inequality) ay may mas mababang crime rates. Halimbawa, noong 2009, ang ARMM ay may pinakamababang Gini  (0.2948) at may pinakamababa ring crime rate (54 sa bawat 100,000 populasyon). Ang Region X, naman, na may pinakamataas na crime rate (1,069 sa bawat 100,000 populasyon) ay isa sa mga rehiyon na mataas ang Gini (0.4737).  Kaya naman, mahalaga para sa ating mga economic managers na maghanap ng pamamaraan upang mabawasan ang hindi pantay na kita sa ating populasyon sa pamamagitan ng mga programang magpapabuti ng pagbabahagi ng pangkalahatang kita sa bansa, tulad ng progressive income taxation, at ng conditional cash transfer.  Ang pagpapabuti ng paghahati ng pangkalahatang kita ay isa sa mga daang matuwid para maganap ang tinatawag na inclusive growth, na kung saan bawat Pinoy ay makikibahagi sa pag-unlad ng pambansang ekonomiya. 

Samantalang ang campaign period para sa pambansang eleksyon sa Mayo 2013 ay nagsimula na noong ika 12 ng Pebrero, isaisip sana natin ang mga estadistikang ito. At sana tayong lahat, politiko man o hindi, ay makapag-ambag sa pagkabawas ng hindi pantay na kita at para sa mas ligtas na lipunan! Kung ito’y ating isasagawa, mas maisisigaw natin sa buong mundo na hindi lamang “It’s more fun in the Philippines!” kundi, “It’s more safe in the Philippines!”

Kung kayo ay may reaksyon o ibang pananaw ukol sa artikulong ito, mangyari lamang na sumulat sa may akda sa email address na: jrg.albert@nscb.gov.ph.

 

 

1 Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). The NSCB, a statistical agency functionally attached to the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), is the highest policy making and coordinating body on statistical matters in the Philippines. Immediately prior to his appointment at NSCB, Dr. Albert was a Senior Research Fellow at the Philippine Institute for Development Studies, a policy think tank attached to NEDA. Dr. Albert finished summa cum laude with a Bachelor of Science degree in Applied Mathematics from the De La Salle University in 1988. He completed a Master of Science in Statistics from the State University of New York at Stony Brook in 1989 and a Ph.D. in Statistics from the same university in 1993. He is an Adjunct Faculty at the Asian Institute of Management. He is also a past President of the Philippine Statistical Association, a Fellow of the Social Weather Stations, and an Elected Regular Member of the National Research Council of the Philippines.

This article was co-written by Ms. Jessamyn O. Encarnacion, Ms. Severa B. De Costo, Ms. Marietta V. Gumela, and Mr. Gerald Junne Clariño, Director, Statistical Coordination Officer (SCO) VI, SCO III, and SCO III of the NSCB, respectively. This article was translated in Filipino by Mr. Ruben V. Litan, SCO IV of NSCB. The authors thank Dir. Regina S. Reyes, Dir. Candido J. Astrologo, Simonette A. Nisperos and Sonny U. Gutierrez for the assistance in the preparation of the article. The views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NSCB and its Technical Staff.

2Albert, Jose Ramon G., Encarnacion, Jessamyn O., Balamban, Bernadette B., and Bulan, Joseph Albert Niño M. Single Pinoys and Pinays: Are You Ready to Mingle? Beyond the Numbers. National Statistical Coordination Board. 08 February 2013. http://www.nscb.gov.ph/beyondthenumbers/2013/02082013_jrga_marital.asp.

3Since 2009, the Philippine National Police (PNP) has adopted the National Crime Reporting System (NCRS) that is now being implemented in all PNP units to report crime incidents to the National Headquarters for centralized recording. The old method of crime reporting from the field called Police Regional Office Periodic Report (PROPER) was revised to come up with the Unit Crime Periodic Report or UCPER. To effectively implement the new crime reporting system, all PNP units were required to submit the duly accomplished UCPER to the National Headquarters for consolidation into the NCRS. All crime incidents, whether reported by the victim(s), witness(es) or third party (ies), must be recorded in the Police Blotter (the main source of crime data which shall be the basis for preparing and accomplishing the UCPER). Crime statistics shall be compiled from all sources such as barangay, NBI, PDEA, DSWD and other agencies with law enforcement functions. Significant changes in crime reporting were noted with the inclusion of specific violations of special laws such as carnapping and cattle rustling; and addition of crime cleared data that enumerates the number of crime incidents filed in court; that is, crime solution rate will be quantified only if the court issued a decision.

Under the current system of crime measurement and analysis, data for 2009 was set as the baseline for future research, study and comparison. Thus, crime statistics in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 cannot be compared with those data obtained in the previous years (2008 and earlier) since the parameters were no longer the same.

4Fajnzylber, Pablo, Lederman, Daniel, and Loayza, Norman. Determinants of Crime Rates in Latin America and the World. World Bank Latin American and Carribean Studies. The World Bank. Washington, DC. 1998.

5The year 2009 was used since this is the latest available data from the Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES) – which is the main source of data for the computation of the gini coefficient and poverty incidence among population.



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Table 1. TOTAL CRIME VOLUME BY REGION
2009 to 2012

Region Total Crime Volume Growth Rate (%) Percent Share to Total Crimes
2009a/ 2010a/ 2011a/ 2012a/ 2009-2010a/ 2010-2011a/ 2011-2012a/ 2009a/ 2010a/ 2011a/ 2012a/
Philippines 502,665 324,083 246,958 217,812 (35.53) (23.80) (11.80) 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00
National Capital Region (NCR) 59,682 40,291 48,310 56,978 (32.49) 19.90 17.94 11.87 12.43 19.56 26.16
Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR)  12,648 15,478 7,638 10,827 22.38 (50.65) 41.75 2.52 4.78 3.09 4.97
1 Ilocos Region 17,027 16,187 10,239 12,433 (4.93) (36.75) 21.43 3.39 4.99 4.15 5.71
2 Cagayan Valley 19,031 8,612 4,473 3,730 (54.75) (48.06) (16.61) 3.79 2.66 1.81 1.71
3 Central Luzon 56,421 54,200 35,970 22,498 (3.94) (33.63) (37.45) 11.22 16.72 14.57 10.33
4A CALABARZON 47,612 28,626 23,330 19,894 (39.88) (18.50) (14.73) 9.47 8.83 9.45 9.13
4B MIMAROPA 14,238 6,607 3,502 2,523 (53.60) (47.00) (27.96) 2.83 2.04 1.42 1.16
5 Bicol Region 20,025 16,674 11,749 10,090 (16.73) (29.54) (14.12) 3.98 5.14 4.76 4.63
6 Western Visayas 55,025 19,393 9,181 7,777 (64.76) (52.66) (15.29) 10.95 5.98 3.72 3.57
7 Central Visayas 35,762 34,097 24,775 20,466 (4.66) (27.34) (17.39) 7.11 10.52 10.03 9.40
8 Eastern Visayas 28,602 5,526 7,553 4,420 (80.68) 36.68 (41.48) 5.69 1.71 3.06 2.03
9 Zamboanga Peninsula 21,170 17,479 8,134 8,318 (17.44) (53.46) 2.26 4.21 5.39 3.29 3.82
10 Northern Mindanao 45,240 17,557 15,687 12,258 (61.19) (10.65) (21.86) 9.00 5.42 6.35 5.63
11 Davao Region 30,433 20,028 15,778 13,526 (34.19) (21.22) (14.27) 6.05 6.18 6.39 6.21
12 SOCCSKSARGEN 21,663 11,097 9,586 7,362 (48.77) (13.62) (23.20) 4.31 3.42 3.88 3.38
13 Caraga 12,281 6,382 5,149 3,878 (48.03) (19.32) (24.68) 2.44 1.97 2.08 1.78
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) 1,736 1,207 934 834 (30.47) (22.62) (10.71) 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.38
National Support Units (NSUs) 4,069 4,642 4,970 14.08 7.07 0.81 1.43 2.01

LEGEND: (1) _ (nil or 0); ... (data not available); (2) CALABARZON - Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon; (3) MIMAROPA - Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan; (4) SOCCSKSARGEN - South Cotabato, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani and General Santos City; and (5) National Support Units (NSUs) - refer to the operating arms of the PNP, i.e., Criminal Investigation and Detection Group (CIDG), Special Action Force (SAF), among others.

NOTES: (1) Crime - is the act and omission punishable by law; it is also referred to as Felony; (2) Crime Volume - is the number of crime incidents committed in a given area over a period of time; it is also referred to as Crime Incidence; (3) Index Crimes - refer to those violations of the penal code considered to have socio-economic significance, and occur with sufficient regularity to be meaningful. These include the following: (a) crimes against persons; and (b) crimes against property; (4) Non-Index Crimes - refer to all other crimes not classified as index crimes; (5) Since 2009, the Philippine National Police (PNP) has adopted the National Crime Reporting System (NCRS) that is now being implemented in all PNP units to report crime incidents to the National Headquarters for centralized recording. The old method of crime reporting from the field called Police Regional Office Periodic Report (PROPER) was revised to come up with the Unit Crime Periodic Report or UCPER. To effectively implement the new crime reporting system, all PNP units were required to submit the duly accomplished UCPER to the National Headquarters for consolidation into the NCRS. All crime incidents, whether reported by the victim(s), witness(es) or third party (ies), must be recorded in the Police Blotter (the main source of crime data which shall be the basis for preparing and accomplishing the UCPER). Crime statistics shall be compiled from all sources such as barangay, NBI, PDEA, DSWD and other agencies with law enforcement functions. Significant changes in crime reporting were noted with the inclusion of specific violations of special laws such as carnapping and cattle rustling; and addition of crime cleared data that enumerates the number of crime incidents filed in court; that is, crime solution rate will be quantified only if the court issued a decision.

a/ - Under the current system of crime measurement and analysis, data for 2009 was set as the baseline for future research, study and comparison. Thus, crime statistics in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 cannot be compared with those data obtained in the previous years (2008 and earlier) since the parameters were no longer the same.

Source: Philippine National Police (PNP)

 

Table 2. DISTRIBUTION OF REPORTED INDEX AND NON-INDEX CRIMES BY REGION AND BY TYPE OF CRIME, 2012

Region Volume Percent Share to Total
Index Crimes Total Non-Index Crimes Total Crime Volume Index Crimes Non-Index Crimes Total Crime
Crimes against Persons Crimes against Property Total Crimes against Persons Crimes against Property Total
Murder Homicide Physical Injuries Rape Total Murder Homicide Physical Injuries Rape Total
Philippines 8,484 3,022 34,825 4,738 51,069 78,092 129,161 88,651 217,812 3.9 1.4 16.0 2.2 23.4 35.9 59.3 40.7 100.0
National Capital Region (NCR) 820 395 9,098 543 10,856 27,064 37,920 19,058 56,978 0.4 0.2 4.2 0.2 5.0 12.4 66.6 8.7 26.2
Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) 103 96 2,468 162 2,829 3,838 6,667 4,160 10,827 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.1 1.3 1.8 61.6 1.9 5.0
1 Ilocos Region 330 125 1,322 177 1,954 1,376 3,330 9,103 12,433 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.6 26.8 4.2 5.7
2 Cagayan Valley 268 109 821 112 1,310 1,113 2,423 1,307 3,730 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 65.0 0.6 1.7
3 Central Luzon 620 207 3,407 720 4,954 7,071 12,025 10,473 22,498 0.3 0.1 1.6 0.3 2.3 3.2 53.4 4.8 10.3
4A CALABARZON 1,278 316 2,569 911 5,074 4,657 9,731 10,163 19,894 0.6 0.1 1.2 0.4 2.3 2.1 48.9 4.7 9.1
4B MIMAROPA 225 65 527 161 978 326 1,304 1,219 2,523 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 51.7 0.6 1.2
5 Bicol Region 408 181 2,292 335 3,216 2,641 5,857 4,233 10,090 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.2 1.5 1.2 58.0 1.9 4.6
6 Western Visayas 529 285 1,628 492 2,934 2,800 5,734 2,043 7,777 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.2 1.3 1.3 73.7 0.9 3.6
7 Central Visayas 605 316 2,638 302 3,861 9,251 13,112 7,354 20,466 0.3 0.1 1.2 0.1 1.8 4.2 64.1 3.4 9.4
8 Eastern Visayas 427 163 914 110 1,614 1,031 2,645 1,775 4,420 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.5 59.8 0.8 2.0
9 Zamboanga Peninsula 596 167 1,578 187 2,528 2,523 5,051 3,267 8,318 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.2 1.2 60.7 1.5 3.8
10 Northern Mindanao 578 158 2,053 171 2,960 5,815 8,775 3,483 12,258 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.1 1.4 2.7 71.6 1.6 5.6
11 Davao Region 605 171 1,554 77 2,407 5,092 7,499 6,027 13,526 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.0 1.1 2.3 55.4 2.8 6.2
12 SOCCSKSARGEN 529 146 1,126 169 1,970 1,977 3,947 3,415 7,362 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.9 53.6 1.6 3.4
13 Caraga 343 81 666 102 1,192 1,339 2,531 1,347 3,878 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.6 65.3 0.6 1.8
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) 220 41 164 7 432 178 610 224 834 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 73.1 0.1 0.4
National Support Units (NSUs) 0 0

LEGEND: (1) _ (nil or 0); ... (data not available); (2) CALABARZON - Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon; (3) MIMAROPA - Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon and Palawan; (4) SOCCSKSARGEN - South Cotabato, Cotabato, Sultan Kudarat, Sarangani and General Santos City; and (5) National Support Units (NSUs) - refer to the operating arms of the PNP, i.e., Criminal Investigation and Detection Group (CIDG), Special Action Force (SAF), among others.

Source: Philippine National Police (PNP)

 

Table 3. CRIME VOLUME AND CRIME RATE PER 100,000 POPULATION
1999 to 2012

Year Crime Volume Crime Rate Increase/Decrease
Crime Volume Crime Rate
1999 82,538      
2000 80,108 104 (2.9)
2001 76,991 98 (3.9) (5.9)
2002 85,776 108 11.4 9.2
2003 83,704 103 (2.4) (4.6)
2004 77,253 93 (7.7) (9.7)
2005 76,758 91 (0.6) (2.3)
2006 71,227 83 (7.2) (8.1)
2007 60,215 69 (15.5) (14.1)
2008 66,846 75 11.0 6.1
New Methodology
2009a/ 502,665 552
2010a/ 324,083 350 (35.5) (202.4)
2011a/ 246,958 (23.8)
2012a/ 217,812 (11.8)

Sources of Basic Data: Philippine National Police (PNP)

Note: Per methodology advised by the NSO, the NSCB Technical Staff computed the annual regional population estimates using curvilinear interpolation at decelerating rates, with the results of the 2000 and 2010 Censuses of Population and Housing (CPH) as start and end dates of the reference population.

NOTES: (1) Crime - is the act and omission punishable by law; it is also referred to as Felony; (2) Crime Volume - is the number of crime incidents committed in a given area over a period of time; it is also referred to as Crime Incidence; (3) Index Crimes - refer to those violations of the penal code considered to have socio-economic significance, and occur with sufficient regularity to be meaningful. These include the following: (a) crimes against persons; and (b) crimes against property; (4) Non-Index Crimes - refer to all other crimes not classified as index crimes; (5) Since 2009, the Philippine National Police (PNP) has adopted the National Crime Reporting System (NCRS) that is now being implemented in all PNP units to report crime incidents to the National Headquarters for centralized recording. The old method of crime reporting from the field called Police Regional Office Periodic Report (PROPER) was revised to come up with the Unit Crime Periodic Report or UCPER. To effectively implement the new crime reporting system, all PNP units were required to submit the duly accomplished UCPER to the National Headquarters for consolidation into the NCRS. All crime incidents, whether reported by the victim(s), witness(es) or third party (ies), must be recorded in the Police Blotter (the main source of crime data which shall be the basis for preparing and accomplishing the UCPER). Crime statistics shall be compiled from all sources such as barangay, NBI, PDEA, DSWD and other agencies with law enforcement functions. Significant changes in crime reporting were noted with the inclusion of specific violations of special laws such as carnapping and cattle rustling; and addition of crime cleared data that enumerates the number of crime incidents filed in court; that is, crime solution rate will be quantified only if the court issued a decision.

a/ - Under the current system of crime measurement and analysis, data for 2009 was set as the baseline for future research, study and comparison. Thus, crime statistics in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 cannot be compared with those data obtained in the previous years (2008 and earlier) since the parameters were no longer the same.


 

Table 4. Intentional homicide, count and rate per 100,000 population (1995 - 2011)
Intentional homicide is defined as unlawful death purposefully
inflicted on a person by another person

Subregion Country Source Data Year
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
South-Eastern Asia Brunei Darussalam CJ CTS Rate 0.6 1.4 0.0 0.5
Count 2 5 0 2
Cambodia CJ NGO (d) Rate 3.6 4.7 6.8 6.6 4.8 4.6 3.2 3.3 3.9 3.9 3.4
Count 397 542 793 793 581 571 407 425 509 511 448
Indonesia PH WHO Rate 8.1
Count 18963
Lao People's Democratic Republic PH WHO Rate 4.6
Count 279
Malaysia CJ CTS Rate 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.9 2.3
Count 396 447 540 629 588 551 497 604
Myanmar PH WHO Rate 10.2
Count 4800
Philippines CJ CTS Rate 8.0 7.5 7.4 7.4 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 7.1 6.7 6.5 5.4
Count 5913 5703 5735 5852 6553 6436 6344 6434 6196 5962 5820 4947
Singapore CJ CTS/National police Rate 1.5 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3
Count 51 31 39 37 40 37 30 22 24 19 21 17 18 18 25 19 16
Thailand CJ National police Rate 7.6 7.4 7.9 8.7 8.1 8.1 7.9 7.0 9.8 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.5 5.8 5.4 5.3 4.8
Count 4542 4474 4787 5361 5052 5142 5020 4538 6434 4273 4806 4687 4435 3974 3703 3654 3307
Timor-Leste PH WHO Rate 6.9
Count 75
Viet Nam PH WHO Rate 1.6
Count 1346

Source: United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime

Source type:

Criminal Justice
Public Health

Data sources:

Data are provided to UNODC annually by national police, national statistical offices or other competent national authorities through the United Nations Surveys on Crime Trends and the Operations of Criminal Justice Systems (CTS). Detailed information on can be found on http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/United-Nations-Surveys-on-Crime-Trends-and-the-Operations-of-Criminal-Justice-Systems.html

Non-governmental organization: (a) Mayra Brea de Cabral and Edylberto Cabral (2009), "Violence in the Dominican Republic: nature, recent developments and prospects for control". Authors calculations based on data from the national police and the Attorney General of the Dominican Republic; (b) Annita Montoute and David Anyanwu (2009), "Situational Analysis of Gun Related Crime in the Caribbean: The Case of Trinidad & Tobago; Antigua & Barbuda; St Vincent & the Grenadines and St. Lucia". Prepared for the Coalition for Development and the Reduction of Armed Violence; (c) The Venezuelan Program of Action and Education in Human Rights (PROVEA); (d) Rod Broadhurst and Thierry Bouhours (2009), "Policing in Cambodia: legitimacy in the making?", Policing and Society, 19: 2, 174 -190. Data based on murder recorded by judicial police.

World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Mortality Estimates

 

Table 5. INDEX CRIMES AGAINST PERSONS BY REGION
2009-2012

Region Index Crimes Against Persons Rank (1=Highest)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
Philippines 142,482 86,008 59,800 188,813
National Capital Region (NCR) 14,124 8,186 9,376 24,437 3 3 1 1
3 Central Luzon 16,510 15,358 7,960 20,744 1 1 2 2
4A CALABARZON 13,895 8,644 6,128 18,058 4 2 3 3
6 Western Visayas 14,328 4,975 3,147 16,770 2 8 9 4
10 Northern Mindanao 12,548 3,909 3,408 15,337 5 11 7 5
7 Central Visayas 8,593 6,451 4,700 12,152 7 4 4 6
11 Davao Region 9,171 4,764 3,528 11,501 6 9 6 7
8 Eastern Visayas 8,040 1,768 2,319 9,544 8 16 12 8
5 Bicol Region 6,251 5,317 3,691 9,132 11 7 5 9
1 Ilocos Region 6,997 5,698 3,261 8,774 9 5 8 10
2 Cagayan Valley 6,859 2,979 1,527 8,057 10 12 14 11
12 SOCCSKSARGEN 6,059 2,853 2,089 7,860 12 13 13 12
9 Zamboanga Peninsula 4,498 4,190 2,714 6,839 14 10 10 13
Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) 3,870 5,538 2,322 6,537 16 6 11 14
4B MIMAROPA 4,926 2,306 1,256 5,743 13 14 16 15
13 Caraga 4,352 1,852 1,512 5,442 15 15 15 16
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) 801 635 505 1,226 17 17 17 17
National Support Units (NSUs) 660 585 357 660

Source: Philippine National Police (PNP)

 

Table 6. CRIME RATE OF INDEX CRIMES AGAINST PERSONS, BY REGION
2009-2012

Region Crime Rate of Index Crimes Against Persons Rank (1=Highest)
2009a/ 2010a/ 2011a/ 2012a/ 2009 2010 2011 2012
Philippines 157 93 63 197
Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) 242 342 141 391 2 1 1 1
10 Northern Mindanao 297 91 78 343 1 9 3 2
11 Davao Region 208 106 77 248 4 5 5 3
2 Cagayan Valley 215 92 47 243 3 8 14 4
6 Western Visayas 204 70 44 230 5 12 16 5
8 Eastern Visayas 198 43 56 227 6 16 11 6
13 Caraga 181 76 61 218 8 11 10 7
4B MIMAROPA 182 84 45 202 7 10 15 8
National Capital Region (NCR) 121 69 78 199 14 14 4 9
3 Central Luzon 165 151 77 196 9 2 6 10
9 Zamboanga Peninsula 134 123 78 194 12 3 2 11
12 SOCCSKSARGEN 150 69 50 183 10 13 12 12
1 Ilocos Region 149 120 68 180 11 4 8 13
7 Central Visayas 128 95 68 173 13 7 7 14
5 Bicol Region 117 98 67 164 15 6 9 15
4A CALABARZON 113 68 47 136 16 15 13 16
Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) 25 19 15 37 17 17 17 17

Note: Per methodology advised by the NSO, the NSCB Technical Staff computed the annual regional population estimates using curvilinear interpolation at decelerating rates, with the results of the 2000 and 2010 Censuses of Population and Housing (CPH) as start and end dates of the reference population.

Source: Philippine National Police (PNP)

NOTES: (1) Crime - is the act and omission punishable by law; it is also referred to as Felony; (2) Crime Volume - is the number of crime incidents committed in a given area over a period of time; it is also referred to as Crime Incidence; (3) Index Crimes - refer to those violations of the penal code considered to have socio-economic significance, and occur with sufficient regularity to be meaningful. These include the following: (a) crimes against persons; and (b) crimes against property; (4) Non-Index Crimes - refer to all other crimes not classified as index crimes; (5) Since 2009, the Philippine National Police (PNP) has adopted the National Crime Reporting System (NCRS) that is now being implemented in all PNP units to report crime incidents to the National Headquarters for centralized recording. The old method of crime reporting from the field called Police Regional Office Periodic Report (PROPER) was revised to come up with the Unit Crime Periodic Report or UCPER. To effectively implement the new crime reporting system, all PNP units were required to submit the duly accomplished UCPER to the National Headquarters for consolidation into the NCRS. All crime incidents, whether reported by the victim(s), witness(es) or third party (ies), must be recorded in the Police Blotter (the main source of crime data which shall be the basis for preparing and accomplishing the UCPER). Crime statistics shall be compiled from all sources such as barangay, NBI, PDEA, DSWD and other agencies with law enforcement functions. Significant changes in crime reporting were noted with the inclusion of specific violations of special laws such as carnapping and cattle rustling; and addition of crime cleared data that enumerates the number of crime incidents filed in court; that is, crime solution rate will be quantified only if the court issued a decision.

a/ - Under the current system of crime measurement and analysis, data for 2009 was set as the baseline for future research, study and comparison. Thus, crime statistics in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 cannot be compared with those data obtained in the previous years (2008 and earlier) since the parameters were no longer the same.

 

Table 7. Crime rate per 100,000 population, gini coefficient, poverty incidence, and gross regional domestic product: 2009

Region Crime rate per 100,000 population 1/ Rank Gini coefficient 2/ Rank Poverty incidence among population 3/ Rank GRDP Growth rate 2009-2010 3/ Rank
Philippines 552 0.4484 26.5 12.2
Rank correlation (with regional ranking of crime rate) 0.5847 (0.0735) 0.4093
National Capital Region (NCR) 510 5 0.3953 3 4.0 1 12.7 5
Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) 793 16 0.4212 9 22.9 5 9.9 10
1 Ilocos Region 362 2 0.4086 6 23.3 6 9.6 12
2 Cagayan Valley 596 11 0.4425 12 18.8 4 1.6 17
3 Central Luzon 566 10 0.3727 2 15.3 3 12.4 7
4A CALABARZON 386 4 0.4063 5 13.9 2 15.2 3
4B MIMAROPA 526 7 0.4004 4 35.0 9 4.9 15
5 Bicol Region 374 3 0.4164 7 45.1 15 12.0 8
6 Western Visayas 783 15 0.4197 8 31.2 7 9.2 13
7 Central Visayas 533 8 0.4601 14 35.5 10 16.0 2
8 Eastern Visayas 704 14 0.4841 17 41.4 13 4.7 16
9 Zamboanga Peninsula 630 12 0.4738 16 43.1 14 9.9 11
10 Northern Mindanao 1,069 17 0.4737 15 39.6 12 12.6 6
11 Davao Region 691 13 0.4275 10 31.3 8 10.6 9
12 SOCCSKSARGEN 537 9 0.4425 12 35.7 11 8.8 14
13 Caraga 511 6 0.4595 13 47.8 17 13.5 4
14 ARMM 54 1 0.2948 1 45.9 16 16.2 1

Sources of basic data:

1/ Philippine National Police, National Statistics Office
2/ National Statistics Office
3/ National Statistical Coordination Board

Figure 1. Motion Chart

Notes:

1. Crime rates are per 100,000 persons

2. Gini index for 2006 and 2009 are actual values. For 2007 and 2008, 2006 estimates were used, for 2010 and 2011, 2009 estimates were used.

3. Per Capita Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) are in Pesos. Actual published estimates were used for 2009 to 2011 while the estimates for 2006 to 2008 were computed using backward interpolations based on the per capita GDP growth rates for the same years.

4. Projected population figures are based on the 2000 Census of Population and Housing

5. Poverty Incidence for 2006 and 2009 are actual values; for 2007 and 2008, 2006 estimates were used, for 2010 and 2011, 2009 estimates were used.

 

 

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