Transport Sector Development Plan1 targets: Tumatakbo ba?
(Posted 28 June 2012)
Out of 27 indicators 2 on the transport sector targets under the Philippine Development Plan, there are 17 indicators with low probability of achieving the 2016 targets; two indicators with medium probability; and eight indicators with high probability. Thus, the transport sector has to move double time to achieve the 2016 targets. No more underspending, promise?
Let’s take a closer look on our progress in achieving our targets for the transport sector:
With 178 million metric tons of cargo throughput recorded by the Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) in 2011, the 2016 target of 217 million metric tons has good chances of being achieved. This will require that eight million metric tons cargo throughput be captured by the PPA every year.
The target on the number of ports certified to ISO standards on selected processes has a medium chance of success.
However, the following have only a low probability of achieving the 2016 targets:
• SBMA cargo throughput
• Number of water transport passengers
• Passenger seating capacity in port terminal building
• Number of water vessels
• Percentage of major gateways receiving foreign vessels
Targets on construction of permanent bridges along national arterial roads and on passengers of non-airconditioned Metro Manila buses are on track.
Building of paved roads needs fasttracking from the existing 25,916 kilometers in 2011 to 31,242 kilometers in 2016. This will require spending annually for 1065 kilometers of paved roads from now to 2016.
Requiring even greater efforts are the PDP targets on the following:
• length of arterial roads with roughness index of 3.0
• travel time in MM
• travel speed in MM
• passenger occupants in MM using airconditioned buses
• vehicular accidents in MM
Both targets on increased ridership and revenue to cost ratio are unlikely to be met. Sana wala ng train derailment incident like that with the LRT in Roosevelt in February last year. Also let us hope projects such as the Line 1 North Extension project, Line 1 South (Cavite) Extension Projects and Rehabilitation Projects will succeed in providing us with “Serbisyong Ayos”.
For air transport, the Plan targets for increased international and domestic flights and passenger traffic are very likely to be achieved except that for the Diosdado Macapagal International Airport. But we need to do something constructive and innovative to prevent flight delays due to the increased number of flights.
Also, cargo traffic in all the airports being monitored has not increased as fast as passenger traffic.
1 Based on the Philippine Development Plan (PDP)
2 Based on the Statistical Indicators on Philippine Development (StatDev), an online report which the NSCB prepares to monitor the achievements of the economic and social development goals set forth in the 2011-2016 PDP.
The StatDev contains various indicators from 19 sectoral chapters, and one of them is the transport sector.
|INDICATOR 1/||BASELINE DATA
|HOW FAR FROM THE TARGET||AVERAGE PER YEAR||PACE OF PROGRESS||PROBABILITY||PROBABILITY 3/
OF ACHIEVING THE TARGET
|DATA SOURCE AGENCY|
Objective/result: Quality, adequacy and accessibility of infrastructure facilities and services enhanced
|Number of cargo throughput (in million metric tons)|
|Number of water transport passengers
|Passenger seating capacity in port terminal building||20,638||20,090||25,193||5,103||1,021||-0.7||Low||PPA|
|Number of water vessels (in thousands)||346||341||412||71||14||-0.5||Low||PPA|
|Number of ports certified to ISO standards on selected processes||0||1||7||6||1||0.9||Medium||PPA|
|Percentage of major gateways receiving foreign vessels (dredged to minimum of -11 m)||27%||27%||100%||1||0||0.0||Low||PPA|
|Road density (road length/land area) 4/||18.36||18.27||17.88||(0.39)||-0.1||1.1||High||DPWH|
|Total length of arterial roads with roughness index of 3.0 (in kilometers) 5/||0||1,400||6,600||5,200||1,040||0.0||Low||DPWH|
|Length of paved roads (in kilometers)||25,281||25,916||31,242||5,326||1,065||0.6||Medium||DPWH|
|Length of permanent bridges along national arterial roads (in meters)||318,300||335,043||345,978||10,935||2,187||3.6||High||DPWH|
|Travel time in Metro Manila (minute/km)||2.17||2.13||1.57||(1)||0||0.4||Low||MMDA|
|Travel speed in Metro Manila (km/hr)||27.79||28.10||38.20||10||2||0.18||Low||MMDA|
|Passenger occupants of MM city buses|
|Number of vehicular accidents in Metro Manila per day||211||211||148||(63)||-13||0.0||Low||MMDA|
|Ratio of revenue to operation and maintenance cost
|International and domestic passenger traffic
|International and domestic cargo traffic
(in million kgs)
|Number of NAIA domestic and internatinal flights (in thousands)||200||218||276||58||12||1.4||High||NAIA|
1/ Out of 30 outcome indicators identified in the Philippine Development Plan Results Matrices (PDP-RM) specifically in transport sector; there are 27 available indicators. Unavailable data include: (1) number of locations in Metro Manila with pedestrian-vehiclle conflict; (2) ratio of capacity to ridership; and (3) Philippine air traffic rights/entitlements
2/ Baseline data are for 2010, except as indicated.
3/ Probability is based on the comparison of actual (from baseline to latest data) and required (from baseline to target year) rates of progress.
4/ Only national road length is utilized in the computation of road density by the DPWH considering that local roads are outside the jurisdiction of the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH).
5/ Data on Roughness Index is taken from the DPWH PGS Scorecard (2010-2016). a/ Baseline year is 2008.
Low; pace of progress is less than 0.5
Medium; pace of progress between 0.5 and 0.9
High; pace of progress is greater than 0.9
CAAP – Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines
CIAC – Clark International Airport Corporation
DPWH – Department of Public Works and Highways
LRTA - Light Rail Transit Authority
MMDA – Metro Manila Development Authority
MCIAA - Mactan Cebu International Airport Authority
NAIA - Ninoy Aquino International Airport
PPA - Philippine Ports Authority
SBMA - Subic Bay Metropolitan Authority
Prepared by: Under the Guidance of:
RACQUEL DOLORES V. SABEÑANO ROMULO A. VIROLA
Statistical Coordination Officer Secretary General
Social Sectors A Division
Tel No.: (+632) 890-9678
Statistical Coordination Officer
Simonette A. Nisperos
Information Systems Analyst
Sonny U. Gutierrez
Statistical Coordination Officer
The author also acknowledges the assistance provided by Dir. Jessamyn O. Encarnacion, Ms. Redencion M. Ignacio, Ms. Carmelita H. Destreza, Mr. Gerald Junne L. Clariño, and Ms. Vivian Velasco of UP-NCPAG.