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SexyStats

Lubog na ba tayo sa Utang?
(Posted 09 May 2012)

  1. As of December 2011, every Juan/Juana de la Cruz owed PhP 29,989 domestic debt and PhP 21,686 foreign debt, a total of PhP 51,675. (Table 1, Figure 1)
  1. On the average, 44.3 % of our debt from 1986 to 2011 was foreign debt. The average share of foreign debt by administration was 46.4 % under Pres. Corazon C. Aquino, 40.4 % under Pres. Fidel V. Ramos, 46.2% under Pres. Joseph E. Estrada, 45.5 % under Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, and 42.2 % under Pres. Benigno S. Aquino, III.  (Table 2)
  1. In nominal terms, our debt per capita increased at an annualized rate of 11.1% during the term of Pres. Cory Aquino, 7.1% during Pres. Ramos, 18.3% under Pres. Estrada, 5.9% under Pres. Macapagal-Arroyo and 3.0% under Pres. Benigno Aquino III. (Table 3)
  1. In real terms, the annualized growth rate of our debt per capita was 0.5% during the term of Pres. Cory Aquino, -1.0% during Pres. Ramos, 11.5% under Pres. Estrada, 1.2% under Pres. Macapagal-Arroyo and -1.2% under Pres. Benigno  Aquino III. (Table 3)
  1. In contrast, per capita real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 0.6% during Pres. Cory Aquino, 1.3% during Pres. Ramos, 2.0% during Pres. Estrada, 2.7% during Pres. Macapagal-Arroyo and 1.8% under Pres. Benigno Aquino III. Percentage point difference between GDP growth and debt growth was +0.1% under Pres. Cory Aquino, +2.3% under Pres. Ramos, -9.5% under Pres. Estrada, +1.5% under Pres. Arroyo, and +3.0% under Pres. Benigno Aquino III. (Tables 4 and 5)
  1. On the other hand, as of Dec. 2011, per capita real GDP was PhP 61,719 while per capita debt was PhP 31,391. Thus, if we want to pay off our debts completely, for every PhP100 worth of goods and services we produce in the domestic economy, we must use PhP51 for debt service. (Table 6)
  1. However, in reality, debt service payments from 1986 to 2011 amounted to an average of 8.5 % of GDP. Debt service payments were highest during Pres. Cory Aquino at 10.4 %, followed by Pres. Arroyo and Pres. Benigno  Aquino III, at 9.6% and 7.5%, respectively, then Pres. Estrada at 6.2% and Pres. Ramos at 5.8%. (Table 7)
  1. Debt service payments as percentage of outstanding debt averaged 14.7% from 1986 -2011. They were on the average highest during the administration of Pres. Cory at 19.8% followed by Pres. Arroyo at 15.6%, Pres. Benigno Aquino III at 14.6%, Pres. Estrada at 11.0%, and Pres. Ramos at 10.6%. (Table 7 and Figure 2) Looks like the women (mothers) presidents wanted to pay our debt more!

Happy Mother’s Day to all mothers out there! We love you!

 

Table 1. Philippine Oustanding Debt, 1986-2011 1/

Year Debt in Million Pesos (Nominal) GDP Implicit Price Index Debt in Million Pesos (Real) Philippine Midyear Population 2/ Debt Per Capita (Nominal) Debt Per Capita (Real)
Total Domestic  Foreign Total Domestic  Foreign Domestic  Foreign Total Domestic  Foreign Total
1986             395,509             210,427             185,082               30.4         1,299,043             691,144             607,899         55,723,656          3,776      3,321      7,098        12,403    10,909    23,312
1987             442,536             229,542             212,994               32.7         1,352,118             701,339             650,779         56,959,743          4,030      3,739      7,769        12,313    11,425    23,738
1988             472,801             264,427             208,374               35.9         1,317,490             736,843             580,648         58,196,275          4,544      3,581      8,124        12,661      9,977    22,639
1989             507,586             287,606             219,980               39.1         1,297,241             735,036             562,204         59,433,253          4,839      3,701      8,540        12,367      9,459    21,827
1990             600,205             300,441             299,764               44.2         1,357,821             679,676             678,145         62,049,229          4,842      4,831      9,673        10,954    10,929    21,883
1991             672,788             337,890             334,898               51.5         1,306,156             655,982             650,173         63,634,475          5,310      5,263    10,573        10,309    10,217    20,526
1992             870,814             497,917             372,897               55.6         1,566,351             895,614             670,738         65,224,066          7,634      5,717    13,351        13,731    10,284    24,015
1993         1,125,892             676,867             449,025               59.4         1,895,652         1,139,633             756,018         66,809,309        10,131      6,721    16,852        17,058    11,316    28,374
1994         1,081,155             664,978             416,177               65.3         1,654,975         1,017,913             637,062         68,394,559          9,723      6,085    15,808        14,883      9,315    24,197
1995         1,158,622             718,395             440,227               70.3         1,649,040         1,022,475             626,565         69,979,805        10,266      6,291    16,557        14,611      8,954    23,565
1996         1,155,237             742,057             413,180               75.6         1,527,222             980,998             546,223         71,444,663        10,386      5,783    16,170        13,731      7,645    21,376
1997         1,350,574             749,608             600,966               80.4         1,680,835             932,912             747,922         72,905,527        10,282      8,243    18,525        12,796    10,259    23,055
1998         1,496,222             850,931             645,291               88.8         1,685,806             958,751             727,055         74,366,385        11,442      8,677    20,120        12,892      9,777    22,669
1999         1,775,992             978,205             797,177               94.6         1,876,753         1,034,059             842,694         75,827,249        12,900    10,513    23,422        13,637    11,113    24,750
2000         2,166,710         1,068,200         1,098,510            100.0         2,166,710         1,068,200         1,098,510         76,946,500        13,882    14,276    28,159        13,882    14,276    28,159
2001         2,384,917         1,247,683         1,137,234            105.5         2,259,525         1,182,084         1,077,442         78,568,100        15,880    14,475    30,355        15,045    13,713    28,759
2002         2,815,468         1,471,202         1,344,266            109.9         2,560,851         1,338,154         1,222,697         80,217,200        18,340    16,758    35,098        16,682    15,242    31,924
2003         3,355,108         1,703,781         1,651,327            113.5         2,957,024         1,501,627         1,455,397         81,877,700        20,809    20,168    40,977        18,340    17,775    36,115
2004         3,811,954         2,001,220         1,810,734            119.7         3,184,007         1,671,557         1,512,450         83,558,700        23,950    21,670    45,620        20,005    18,100    38,105
2005         3,888,231         2,164,293         1,723,938            126.7         3,068,865         1,708,212         1,360,653         85,261,000        25,384    20,220    45,604        20,035    15,959    35,994
2006         3,851,506         2,154,078         1,697,428            133.0         2,896,529         1,619,977         1,276,553         86,972,500        24,767    19,517    44,284        18,626    14,678    33,304
2007         3,712,487         2,201,167         1,511,320            137.1         2,708,285         1,605,767         1,102,518         88,706,300        24,814    17,037    41,851        18,102    12,429    30,531
2008         4,220,903         2,414,428         1,806,475            147.4         2,863,045         1,637,710         1,225,335         90,457,200        26,691    19,970    46,662        18,105    13,546    31,651
2009         4,396,640         2,470,040         1,926,600            151.5         2,901,774         1,630,222         1,271,552         92,226,600        26,782    20,890    47,672        17,676    13,787    31,464
2010         4,718,171         2,718,202         1,999,969            157.9         2,987,826         1,721,327         1,266,499         94,013,200        28,913    21,273    50,186        18,309    13,472    31,781
2011         4,951,188         2,873,357         2,077,831            164.6         3,007,678         1,745,466         1,262,211         95,814,244        29,989    21,686    51,675        18,217    13,174    31,391

Sources: Statistics Data Analysis Division, Bureau of the Treasury
             National Statistical Coordination Board

1/ - Domestic Debts include Treasury Bills, Treasury Bonds/Notes, Loans and Others

Foreign Debts include include Multilateral, Bilateral, Commercial and Foreign Denominated Securities Debt in Real Terms = (Debt in Nominal Terms / (GDP Implicit Price Deflator / 100))

2/ - 1990 and 2000 census based population projections by the National Statistics Office

 

Table 2. Philippine Oustanding Debt, Domestic and Foreign, 1986-2011

Year Outstanding Debt Percentage Distribution
Domestic  Foreign Total
1986                53.2                46.8             100.0
1987                51.9                48.1             100.0
1988                55.9                44.1             100.0
1989                56.7                43.3             100.0
1990                50.1                49.9             100.0
1991                50.2                49.8             100.0
1992                57.2                42.8             100.0
1993                60.1                39.9             100.0
1994                61.5                38.5             100.0
1995                62.0                38.0             100.0
1996                64.2                35.8             100.0
1997                55.5                44.5             100.0
1998                56.9                43.1             100.0
1999                55.1                44.9             100.0
2000                49.3                50.7             100.0
2001                52.3                47.7             100.0
2002                52.3                47.7             100.0
2003                50.8                49.2             100.0
2004                52.5                47.5             100.0
2005                55.7                44.3             100.0
2006                55.9                44.1             100.0
2007                59.3                40.7             100.0
2008                57.2                42.8             100.0
2009                56.2                43.8             100.0
2010                57.6                42.4             100.0
2011                58.0                42.0             100.0
Average Share Per Administration 1/
1986-2011                55.7                44.3             100.0
C. Aquino                53.6                46.4             100.0
F. Ramos                59.6                40.4             100.0
J. Estrada                53.8                46.2             100.0
G. Arroyo                54.5                45.5             100.0
B. Aquino, III                57.8                42.2             100.0

Source of Basic Data: Statistics Data Analysis Division, Bureau of the Treasury

1/ Corazon C. Aquino (February 1986 - June 1992)
Fidel V. Ramos (July 1992 - June 1998)
Joseph E. Estrada (July 1998- January 2001)
Gloria M. Arroyo (January 2001 - June 2010)
Benigno S. Aquino III (July 2010 - Present)

 

Table 3. Average Annualized Growth Rate (AAGR) of Philippine Debt per Capita
by Administration, 1986-2011

Administration Nominal debt per capita Real debt per capita
Beginning of term End of term Average growth rate 1/ Annualized growth rate 2/  Beginning of term End of term Average growth rate 1/ Annualized growth rate 2/ 
Corazon C. Aquino (February  1986 - June 1992)        7,098   13,351              11.3                11.1        23,312    24,015                 0.8 0.5
Fidel V. Ramos (July 1992 - June 1998)      13,351   20,120                7.6                  7.1        24,015    22,669               (0.4)                (1.0)
Joseph E. Estrada (July 1998- January 2001      20,120   28,159              21.1                18.3        22,669    28,159               11.5 11.5
Gloria M. Arroyo (January 2001 - June 2010)      28,159   50,186                6.2                  5.9        28,159    31,781                 1.5 1.2
Benigno S. Aquino III (June 2010 to 2011)      50,186   51,675                3.0                  3.0        31,781    31,391               (1.2)                (1.2)

Sources of basic data:
Statistics Data Analysis Division, Bureau of the Treasury
National Statistical Coordination Board
National Statistics Office

1/ Computed by simply averaging the growth rates in each year
2/ Calculated using the following formula:

1

 

Table 4. Average Annualized Growth Rate (AAGR) of GDP per Capita
by Administration, 1986-2011

Administration Nominal debt per capita Real debt per capita
Beginning of term End of term Average growth rate 1/ Annualized growth rate 2/  Beginning of term End of term Average growth rate 1/ Annualized growth rate 2/ 
Corazon C. Aquino (February  1986 - June 1992)       23,312   24,015                0.8 0.5        39,764   41,296                   0.7                       0.6
Fidel V. Ramos (July 1992 - June 1998)       24,015   22,669               (0.4) (1.0)        41,296   44,737                   1.4                       1.3
Joseph E. Estrada (July 1998- January 2001       22,669   28,159              11.5 11.5        44,737   46,535                   2.0                       2.0
Gloria M. Arroyo (January 2001 - June 2010)       28,159   31,781                1.5 1.2        46,535   60,646                   2.7                       2.7
Benigno S. Aquino III (June 2010 to 2011)       31,781   31,391               (1.2)              (1.2)        60,646   61,719                   1.8                       1.8

Sources of basic data:
Statistics Data Analysis Division, Bureau of the Treasury
National Statistical Coordination Board
National Statistics Office

1/ Computed by simply averaging the growth rates in each year
2/ Calculated using the following formula:

1

 

Table 5. Percentage Point Difference between Real GDP
and Real Debt Growth Rate by Administration, 1986-2011

Administration Annualized average growth rate Percentage Point Difference between GDP and Debt Growth Rate 1/
Real Debt Real GDP
Corazon C. Aquino (February  1986 - June 1992) 0.5 0.6 0.1
Fidel V. Ramos (July 1992 - June 1998) (1.0) 1.3 2.3
Joseph E. Estrada (July 1998- January 2001 11.5 2.0 (9.5)
Gloria M. Arroyo (January 2001 - June 2010) 1.2 2.7 1.5
Benigno S. Aquino III (June 2010 to 2011) (1.2) 1.8 3.0

Sources of basic data: Statistics Data Analysis Division, Bureau of the Treasury
National Statistical Coordination Board

1/ Computed as difference between the annualized average growth rate of GDP and the annualized average growth rate of debt

 

Table 6. Percentage of Debt per Capita to GDP per Capita, 1986-2011

Year Real Debt per Capita (in PhP) Real GDP per Capita (in PhP) Percentage of Real Debt per Capita to GDP per Capita
1986                 23,312             39,764 59%
1987                 23,738             40,578 59%
1988                 22,639             42,398 53%
1989                 21,827             44,091 50%
1990                 21,883             43,515 50%
1991                 20,526             42,186 49%
1992                 24,015             41,296 58%
1993                 28,374             41,170 69%
1994                 24,197             41,980 58%
1995                 23,565             42,949 55%
1996                 21,376             44,527 48%
1997                 23,055             45,898 50%
1998                 22,669             44,737 51%
1999                 24,750             45,227 55%
2000                 28,159             46,535 61%
2001                 28,759             46,894 61%
2002                 31,924             47,604 67%
2003                 36,115             48,957 74%
2004                 38,105             51,185 74%
2005                 35,994             52,560 68%
2006                 33,304             54,227 61%
2007                 30,531             56,685 54%
2008                 31,651             57,896 55%
2009                 31,464             57,437 55%
2010                 31,781             60,646 52%
2011                 31,391             61,719 51%

Sources of basic data:
Statistics Data Analysis Division, Bureau of the Treasury
National Statistical Coordination Board
National Statistics Office

 

Table 7. Percentage of Debt Service to Outstanding Debt
and to GDP by Administration, 1986-2011

Administration Percentage of debt service to outstanding debt 1/ Percentage of debt service to GDP 2/
Corazon C. Aquino (February  1986 - June 1992)                        19.8                       10.4
Fidel V. Ramos (July 1992 - June 1998)                        10.6                         5.8
Joseph E. Estrada (July 1998- January 2001                        11.0                         6.2
Gloria M. Arroyo (January 2001 - June 2010)                        15.6                         9.6
Benigno S. Aquino III (June 2010 to 2011)                        14.6                         7.5
Average       14.7   3/     8.5   4/

Source of basic data: Statistics Data Analysis Division, Bureau of the Treasury
National Statistical Coordination Board

1/ Computed as a weighted average of the ratio of debt service payments for each year to the total outstanding debt at the end of that year. For example: During the term of Pres. Cory Aquino, the weighted average is computed by dividing the sum of debt service payment from February 1986 to June 1992 (no data are available for 1985) to the corresponding outstanding debt. For this purpose, the annual total is pro-rated according to the number of months covered. Thus, the debt service payment for 1986 is multiplied by 11/12, and the debt service payment for 1992 is multiplied by 6/12.

2/ Computed as a weighted average of the ratio of debt service payments for each year to the corresponding GDP. For example: During the term of Pres. Cory Aquino, the weighted average is computed by dividing the sum of debt service payment from February 1986 to June 1992 (no data are available for 1985) to the corresponding GDP. For this purpose, the annual total is pro-rated according to the number of months covered. Thus, the debt service payment for 1986 is multiplied by 11/12, and the debt service payment for 1992 is multiplied by 6/12.

3/Computed as ratio of the sum of debt service payments from 1986-2011 to the sum of the total outstanding debts from 1986-2011.

4/Computed as ratio of the sum of debt service payments from 1986-2011 to the sum of the GDP from 1986-2011

 

Figure 1. Philippine Outstanding Debt Per Capita
(In Nominal Terms)

fig1

Sources of basic data: Statistics Data Analysis Division, Bureau of the Treasury
National Statistical Coordination Board

National Statistics Office

 

Figure 2. Percentage of Debt Service Payments to Outstanding Debt
by Administration, 1986-2011

fig2

Figure 3. Motion Bubble Chart
(How to use the Motion Bubble Chart)

Debts are in Million Pesos
Debts per capita are in Pesos

 

 

Prepared by:                                                     Under the Guidance of:

Magnolia C. San Diego                                     ROMULO A. VIROLA   
Statistical Coordination Officer                          Secretary General                       
Production Accounts Division
Email: mo.coronel@nscb.gov.ph
Tel No.: (+632)896-5372


Mr. Genesis G. Cuizon
Statistical Coordination Officer 
Production Accounts Division
Email: gg.cuizon@nscb.gov.ph
Tel No.: (+632)896-5372

The authors also acknowledge the assistance provided by Dir. Candido J. Astrologo, Jr., Ms. Vivian R. Ilarina, Ms. Maria Fe M. Talento, Mr. Noel S.  Nepomuceno, Ms. Mai Lin C. Villaruel, Mr. Gerald Junne L. Clariño, Mr. Priscille C. Villanueva, Ma. Libertie V. Masculino, Ms. Simonette C. Nisperos, and Mr. Dennis San Diego.

 

 

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