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Press Release
Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) sustains upward streak in the second quarter 
(PR-201005-ES4-02, Posted 03 June 2010)
The composite leading economic indicator (LEI) posted a second consecutive increase for the quarter, improving to negative 0.348 in the second quarter from a revised negative 0.533 in the first quarter of 2010. This marks the second steepest ascent of the composite LEI series since Q3 1986, with the first one occurring in Q1 2008.
Figure 1 below shows the direction of the composite LEI vis-à-vis the movement of the cycle component of the reference series - the Non-Agriculture gross value added (GVA).
Figure 1. Composite leading economic indicator (LEI) versus
the Non-Agriculture GVA cycle: Q3 1986 to Q2 2010
The number of positive contributors as concurrently estimated in this period went down to eight, compared to nine in Q1 2010. While the number of positive contributors for this quarter is one less than the previous, the combined share increased impressively to 98.9 percent from only 51.0 percent in the previous quarter, as the slopes of the positive contributors steepened significantly during the quarter.
The positive contributors, starting with the largest positive contributor, were: total merchandise imports, consumer price index, wholesale price index, tourist arrivals, stock price index, electric energy consumption, hotel occupancy rate, and money supply. The negative contributors, beginning with the largest negative contributor, were: number of new businesses, terms of trade index, and foreign exchange rate. The negative contributors accounted for only 1.1 percent of total contribution.
The contribution of each of the eleven (11) indicators is measured through the combined effects of 1) the direction (the slope or change) of the cycle component of each indicator; and 2) the correlation of their cycle components with that of the reference series.
Table 1 highlights the composite LEI estimates and the corresponding slopes for first quarter 2001 to second quarter 2010.
Table 1: Composite Leading Economic Indicator (LEI)
First Quarter 2001 to Second Quarter 2010
Period |
Composite LEI |
Slope |
2001 Q1 |
(0.107) |
(0.024) |
Q2 |
(0.084) |
0.023 |
Q3 |
(0.094) |
(0.010) |
Q4 |
(0.208) |
(0.114) |
2002 Q1 |
(0.341) |
(0.132) |
Q2 |
(0.349) |
(0.008) |
Q3 |
(0.240) |
0.109 |
Q4 |
(0.166) |
0.074 |
2003 Q1 |
(0.164) |
0.002 |
Q2 |
(0.175) |
(0.012) |
Q3 |
(0.193) |
(0.018) |
Q4 |
(0.175) |
0.019 |
2004 Q1 |
(0.133) |
0.042 |
Q2 |
(0.092) |
0.041 |
Q3 |
(0.041) |
0.051 |
Q4 |
0.000 |
0.042 |
2005 Q1 |
(0.012) |
(0.012) |
Q2 |
(0.022) |
(0.011) |
Q3 |
(0.013) |
0.010 |
Q4 |
(0.013) |
(0.000) |
2006 Q1 |
0.008 |
0.021 |
Q2 |
0.020 |
0.012 |
Q3 |
0.018 |
(0.002) |
Q4 |
0.037 |
0.019 |
2007 Q1 |
0.076 |
0.039 |
Q2 |
0.104 |
0.029 |
Q3 |
0.181 |
0.077 |
Q4 |
0.363 |
0.181 |
2008 Q1 |
0.559 |
0.196 |
Q2 |
0.695 |
0.136 |
Q3 |
0.712 |
0.017 |
Q4 |
0.583 |
(0.129) |
2009 Q1 |
0.257 |
(0.326) |
Q2 |
(0.177) |
(0.434) |
Q3 |
(0.529) |
(0.352) |
Q4 |
(0.645) |
(0.116) |
2010 Q1 |
(0.533) |
0.112 |
Q2 |
(0.348) |
0.184 |
Details of the LEI computation procedure, information about the component leading indicators, and limitations on the methodology and latest data are available at http://www.nscb.gov.ph/lei under the Technical Notes section.
ROMULO A. VIROLA
Secretary General
Contact Persons:
Regina S. Reyes / Florande S. Polistico
Tel. No.: (+6 32) 895-5002; (+6 32) 896-7981
E-mail: rs.reyes@nscb.gov.ph; fs.polistico@nscb.gov.ph
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