 |
 |
|||
 |
|
|||
| |
|
|||
|
|
|||
Press Release
The Composite Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) keeps its ascent in Q1 2008 
(PR-200802-ES4-01, Posted 12 February 2008)
The composite leading economic indicator (LEI) climbed to 0.456 in the first quarter of 2008 from 0.368 in the fourth quarter of 2007, maintaining its upward track which started in the third quarter of 2006. The ascent, however is slower than the impressively steep rise recorded during the fourth quarter of 2007. This indicates that the record-shattering growth during the fourth quarter may not be maintained in the first quarter of 2008.
Of the eleven indicators that make up the composite LEI, five contributed positively to the LEI for the first quarter of 2008. The positive contributors, beginning with the largest positive contributor, were: stock price index, merchandise imports, exchange rate, wholesale price index and tourist arrivals. The negative contributors, beginning with the largest negative contributor, were: money supply, hotel occupancy rate, consumer price index, terms of trade index, electric energy consumption, and new businesses. Positive contributors accounted for 69.0 percent of total contribution, while negative contributors recorded a 31.0 percent share. The share of the positive contributors dropped from 78.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Figure 1 below shows the direction of the composite LEI vis-à-vis the movement of the cycle component of the reference series - the non-agriculture gross value added (GVA).
Figure 1. Composite leading economic indicator (LEI) versus the
cycle component of non-agriculture GVA: Q3 1984 to Q1 2008
Table 1 highlights the composite LEI estimates and the corresponding slopes for the most recent years - first quarter 2000 to first quarter 2008.
Table 1: Composite Leading Economic Indicator (LEI)
First Quarter 2000 to First Quarter 2008
| Period | Composite LEI | Slope |
| 2000 Q1 | 0.076 | 0.107 |
| Q2 | 0.171 | 0.094 |
| Q3 | 0.144 | (0.026) |
| Q4 | 0.039 | (0.105) |
| 2001 Q1 | (0.071) | (0.110) |
| Q2 | (0.127) | (0.057) |
| Q3 | (0.191) | (0.064) |
| Q4 | (0.340) | (0.149) |
| 2002 Q1 | (0.424) | (0.084) |
| Q2 | (0.267) | 0.157 |
| Q3 | (0.041) | 0.226 |
| Q4 | 0.014 | 0.055 |
| 2003 Q1 | (0.096) | (0.110) |
| Q2 | (0.245) | (0.149) |
| Q3 | (0.270) | (0.025) |
| Q4 | (0.141) | 0.129 |
| 2004 Q1 | (0.005) | 0.136 |
| Q2 | (0.021) | (0.016) |
| Q3 | (0.105) | (0.084) |
| Q4 | (0.143) | (0.037) |
| 2005 Q1 | (0.122) | 0.021 |
| Q2 | (0.068) | 0.054 |
| Q3 | (0.032) | 0.036 |
| Q4 | (0.038) | (0.007) |
| 2006 Q1 | (0.097) | (0.059) |
| Q2 | (0.100) | (0.003) |
| Q3 | (0.045) | 0.054 |
| Q4 | 0.019 | 0.065 |
| 2007 Q1 | 0.115 | 0.095 |
| Q2 | 0.202 | 0.087 |
| Q3 | 0.257 | 0.055 |
| Q4 | 0.368 | 0.110 |
| 2008 Q1 | 0.456 | 0.088 |
The contribution of each of the eleven (11) indicators is measured through the combined effects of the: 1) direction (the slope or change) of the cycle component of each of the indicators; and 2) correlation of their cycle components with that of the GDP for industry and services.
Details of the LEI computation procedure, information about the component leading indicators, and limitations on the methodology and latest data are available at http://www.nscb.gov.ph/lei under the Technical Notes section.
ROMULO A. VIROLA
Secretary General
Contact Persons:
Regina S. Reyes and Josephine P. Ferre
Tel. No.: (+6 32) 895-5002; (+6 32) 896-7981
E-mail: rs.reyes@nscb.gov.ph ; jr.penaflor@nscb.gov.ph
 |
  |
 |
||||||
  E-mail the webmaster |
Terms of Use |
Home • Top of Page | ||||||
1997-2008,
National Statistical Coordination Board |
||||||||
