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Headlines Statistically Speaking by Dr. Romulo A. Virola1

 

Where to Go….”For Voters or for Worse”?2

Come to think of it…when we cast our votes on election day, it is like putting our future in the hands of our selected candidates based on the “vows” or promises they made. It is similar to making a covenant with someone or some people who will have “power and/or control” over us in a certain period of time. For the President and the Vice President, the covenant with the people will last for 6 years, and three years for the local officials who will design the future of their respective local governments and communities. How successful were the candidates in wooing the electorate to put their trust in them? Were candidates able to target where the voters are? How effective were they in their campaigns? 

This year’s election has been exciting and colorful as the various candidates and parties launched and ran their own campaigns to win the hearts of the country’s populace. These strategies ranged from the traditional to the most advanced tactics and tools through social networking, for example via “twitter” and “facebook” accounts. Traditional methods would involve putting up billboards, posters, etc. only to find out later that the next candidate’s support staff would remove and replace these with their own set of campaign posters. Dikit-alis-dikit. Matira ang matibay?  And of course the other traditional modes of conducting “miting de avances” in several places, house-to-house campaigns, shaking hands of voters, distributing T-shirts and the like. What may happen however, is that some people would only recall the names of candidates who last came to their localities. Tsk..tsk.. How about the various platforms, strategies and slogans? There have been countless approaches. For the Presidentiables, here goes: Noynoy Aquino’s “yellow fever” campaign of “Ituloy ang laban sa korapsyon”; JC de los Reyes’guts; Joseph Ejercito-Estrada or Erap’s magic of championing the masses as “Erap para sa mahirap”; Dick Gordon as transformer with his “Pagbabago. Sigurado”; Maria Consuelo Madrigal or Jamby’s “Bayan natin, Bago’ng lahat”;  Nicanor Perlas’ environment advocacy; Gibo Teodoro’s “Galing at talino sa mabilis na pag-ahon”;  Manny Villar’s “Sipag at tyaga. Laban sa kahirapan”; or Eddie Villanueva’s “Diyos at Bayan” ? “Promises… and more promises…And of course, how can one forget the expensive TV ads featuring jingles and endorsements by artists and celebrities? And what about the youth voice as well as the women’s votes, the Iglesia ni Cristo block voting3, the Solid North4, and other religious groups such as Pastor Quiboloy’s5 movement? How do we account for the influence of local executives? And will Erap’s tricycle vote bring him back to Malacanang?6

quoteWe know that there are 7,107 islands, 17 regions, 80 provinces, 137 cities, 1,497 municipalities and 42,023 barangays in the country7. Take note, that the COMELEC pegged the campaign period8 for candidates for President, Vice-President, Senators and Party-List groups to February 9, 2010 until May 8, 2010 while, the campaign period for candidates of the members of the House of representatives and elective provincial, city and municipal officials was pegged from March 26, 2010 to end May 8, 2010. Just imagine how much time and effort including resources, the quotecandidates would need, to hop from one province to another, or from one island group to another. How could the candidates have saved time, effort and money considering the limited number of days to campaign? Don’t you think it would have been logical to look at the country’s statistics on what areas have the highest and the lowest number of voters?  Should the candidates go for “voters” (vote rich) or for “worse” (less votes)?

By the time this article comes out however, the voters would have cast their ballots and the search for the message in the results would have begun. We would soon know our 15th President and 15th Vice-President, based on the official election results with the hope that the Precinct Count Optical Scan System (PCOS) machines have accurately counted the ballots cast by the Philippine electorate. This is much awaited by us Filipinos, as the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) administers for the first time in the history of the country, the automated national election in compliance with Republic Act No. 93699. Local elections are also held in all provinces, cities and municipalities. The legislators elected in the 2010 elections will join the senators of the 2007 elections and will comprise the 15th Congress of the Philippines. Did you know that all in all, there were more than 85,000 candidates for only 17,000 national and local positions in this year’s election?10.

Election in the Philippines - who can vote?

As mandated by law11, the COMELEC is the premier guardian of the ballot. As an independent constitutional body, it has the exclusive power “to enforce and administer all laws and regulations relative to the conduct of an election, plebiscite, initiative, referendum and recall”.  Likewise, Article 5 of the Philippine Constitution states that suffrage may be exercised by all citizens of the Philippines, not otherwise disqualified by law, who are at least 18 years of age and who shall have resided in the Philippines for at least one year and in the place wherein they propose to vote, for at least six months immediately preceding the election. No literacy, property, or other substantive requirement shall be imposed on the exercise of suffrage. Likewise, the Omnibus Election Code of the Philippines states that it shall be the obligation of every citizen qualified to vote to register and cast his vote. Republic Act No. 8189 or “Voter’s Registration Act of 1996” cites that in order to be able to vote in any election, a qualified voter shall be registered in the permanent list of voters in a precinct of the city or municipality wherein he resides. However, the following persons are disqualified from registering and are not allowed to vote: (1) those who have been sentenced by final judgment to suffer imprisonment of not less that one (1) year; (2) any person who has been adjudged by final judgment by a competent court or tribunal of having committed any crime involving disloyalty to the duly constituted government such as rebellion, sedition, violation of the firearms laws or any crime against national security; and (3) insane or incompetent persons declared as such by competent authority.

On the other hand, the Voter’s Absentee Voting Act of 2003 allows all qualified citizens of the Philippines abroad to vote for president, vice-president, senators and party-list representatives. However, those who lost their Filipino citizenship in accordance with Philippine laws and those who have expressly renounced their Philippine citizenship and who have pledged allegiance to a foreign country are not eligible to vote.

What is the projected voting population?

In 2010, the projected total population 18 years old and over numbered to 56.1 million persons, who unless disqualified by law, comprise the voting age population. (Table 1). 

quoteOf the 17 regions, the National Capital Region has the biggest projected voting age population at 7.45 million accounting for 13.29 percent of the total, closely followed by Region IV-A or CALABARZON with 7.43 million persons or 13.26 percent of the total. Central Luzon (Region 3) registered the third largest projected voting population with 5.9 million persons or 10.52 percent of the total (Chart 1).   These three regions comprised 37.1 percent of the total projected voting population. On the other hand, CAR had the least  with only 1 million.

Registered Voters

Based on COMELEC data as of January 2010, total registered voters in the country reached 50.7 million, for the May 10, 2010 National and Local Elections, representing an increase of 13.6 percent, the highest increase so far, since the 1978 National Elections (Table 2).

The number of registered voters has been increasing from 1978 to 2010, except in 1984 and 1998, which recorded a decline of 0.06 and 2.15 percent, respectively.

Registered Voters By Main Island Groups

quoteBy main island group, Luzon has the highest number of registered voters in this year’s elections at 28.4 million (56%); followed by Mindanao at 12.1 million (24%); and Visayas at 10.3 million (20%), posting increases of 12.8, 14.3 and 10.3 percent, respectively, from 2007  (Table 7).

Registered Voters By Region

quoteCompared to the 2007 registration, all regions reflected increases in the number of registered voters in the 2010 National and Local Elections. The five regions with the highest number of registered voters as of January 2010 were Region IV-A with 6.7 M, followed by NCR (6.1 M), Region III (5.6 M), Region VI  (3.9 M) and Region VII (3.9M).

On the other hand, the regions with the lowest number of registered voters were CAR with 0.9 M, followed by Caraga (1.4 M), Region IV-B (1.5 M), Region II  (1.8 M) and Region IX (1.9 M) (Table 8).

Ten Provinces with Highest  Number of Registered Voters

quoteChart 3 shows the ten provinces which posted the highest number of registered voters in the 2010 National and Local Elections: Cebu (2.41 M), Cavite (1.66 M), Pangasinan (1.62 M), Negros Occidental (1.55 M),  Bulacan (1.48 M), Davao del Sur (1.47 M), Laguna ( 1.44 M), Batangas (1.36 M),  Nueva Ecija (1.29 M)  and Ilo-ilo (1.26 M) in 2010. There you go! If one candidate has limited time to campaign as well as limited resources, don’t you think these  vote-rich provinces are the best places to go to in wooing our voters? Won’t getting 70% of the votes from these 10 provinces with a total number of 15.5 million voters (70% of which is 10.85 million), for instance, ensure victory for a senatorial candidate? Note  that based on unofficial 2010 election results, Serge Osmena III and Manuel M. Lapid with total votes of 10.1 million and 9.5 million  put   them at  the tenth and eleventh  place, respectively, in the senatorial slate12.

Ten Provinces with Lowest  Number of Registered Voters

quoteOn the other hand, the ten provinces with the lowest number of registered voters are as follows (Chart 4): Batanes (.010 M), Camiguin (.057 M), Siquijor (.0610 M), Apayao (.062 M), Dinagat Islands (.070 M), Guimaras (.094 M), Biliran (.099 M), Ifugao (.101 M), Mountain Province (.102 M), and Quirino (.106 M). And so, considering limited time and resources, the national candidates may be better advised to give lower campaigning priority to these areas. However, once elected, it is important for our leaders to also pay attention to the aspirations and needs of the citizens of these areas. 

Provinces with Registration Rates more than 100%

In this article, registration rate refers to the ratio of the number of registered voters to the projected voting population. The overall registration rate in the Philippines in 2010 was placed at 90.2%, up by 1.0 percentage point over the previous national and local elections held in 2004 at 89.2%. Note that the registration rate as defined may exceed 100%.

quoteFourteen (14) provinces posted registration rates exceeding 100% in the 2010 National and Local Elections. These include Leyte (132.5%), Zamboanga Sibugay (111.7%), Bataan (107.9%), Basilan (105.2%), Kalinga (104.6%),  Camiguin(103.9%), Nueva Ecija(103.6%), Catanduanes (103.5%), Davao del Sur (102.1%), Nothern Samar (101.6%), Samar (101.5%), Zamboanga del Norte (101.3%),  Eastern Samar (101.1%) and Abra (100.3%) (Table 4). Note that four of these provinces are located in Eastern Visayas. Among the regions, only Eastern Visayas recorded a registration rate more than its voting population at 110.9 (Table 3).

Ten Provinces with the Highest Registration Rates in 2010

The ten provinces with the highest registration rates excluding those with more than 100%, in 2010 are as follows: Siquijor (100.0), Mt. Province (99.6), Palawan (97.5), Quirino (96.5), Zamboanga del Sur (96.5), Biliran (96.1), Lanao del Sur (96.0), Surigao del Sur (95.9), Aklan (95.7) and Bukidnon (94.9) (Table 5).

Ten Provinces with the Least  Registration Rates in 2010

On the other hand, the ten provinces with the least registration rates in 2010 include the following: Sulu (68.2%), Tawi-tawi(73.0%), Benguet (76.4%), Camarines Norte (79.1%), Compostela Valley (79.2%), Bulacan(79.4%), Batanes (80.3%), Marinduque (80.9%), Agusan del Sur (81.0%) and  Tarlac (82.0%) (Table 6).   

Voter’s Turnout  from 1978 to 2010

quoteThirty eight million out  of the 50.7 million registered voters in 2010  or 75%  turned out in droves and cast their ballots in yesterday’s elections  recording the highest number  of  actual voters since 1978.  The  2010 voters turnout rate, however, was smaller by 2 percentage points   compared to the 2004 voters turnout rate of  77%  representing 33.5 million actual  voters out of  43.5 million registered voters (Table 9).

Could this slight decline be attributed to the technical glitches and the long queues in our first automated national and local elections?

Final Note

quoteThe first automated national elections really posed a big challenge to  the Filipino people  in our journey towards democratic participation and political maturity. Indeed, those fears of failed elections were not totally unfounded. We are glad that senior citizens, persons with disability and pregnant women were prioritized and despite the technical glitches, the long lines and the scorching heat of the sun13 about 38 million or 75%14 of the registered voters actually voted in yesterday’s election.  Based on these statistics, the people have truly spoken. And as the saying goes…”Vox Populi. Vox Dei”. To the winning candidates, our dedicated teachers, our country's vigilant police force, the COMELEC, and to all of us, in the first automated national and local elections…our Congratulations!!! Time now for us to give our all out support to the winners so that they can govern us well!

 

 

Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the authors at lv.castro@nscb.gov.ph. or sb.decosto@nscb.gov.ph

________________

1 Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and Chairman of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC). He holds a Ph. D. in Statistics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, USA and has taught mathematics and statistics at the University of the Philippines. He is also a past president of the Philippine Statistical Association.

This article was written by Lina V. Castro (lv.castro@nscb.gov.ph), Assistant Secretary General of the NSCB and  Severa B. de Costo (sb.decosto@nscb.gov.ph) Statistical Coordination Officer  VI. The authors thank  Fernando Gino B. Regalado, Marymell A. Martillan, Noel S. Nepomuceno, Candido J. Astrologo, Jr., Albert Garcia, Andrea Baylon, Jeffrey Enrado and Ma. Libertie V. Masculino for the assistance in the preparation of the article. The views expressed in the article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NSCB.

2 The authors acknowledge  Jon Santos for the  title “ for voters or for worse”.

3 The Iglesia ni Cristo claims to have 5-8 million voters per article: “Iglesia ni Cristo endorses Aquino-Roxas tandem” by Arlyn de la Cruz, Philippine daily Inquirer, May 4, 2010.

4 Solid north supports Villar presidential bid, Manila Times, April 18, 2010.

5 Quiboloy is the pastor of the Davao City based Kingdom of Jesus movement, an organization claiming to have 6 million members who endorsed presidential candidate Gilberto Teodoro., ABS-CBN news online beta, April 25, 2010.

6 See related article published on ABS-CBN News Online Beta (http://www.abs-cbnnews.com

7 As of December 2009, NSCB website at http://www.nscb.gov.ph

8 2010 Philippine Election, Election 101 – Political Arena at http://ph.politicalarena.com/about

9 RA No. 9369, also known as the Amended Computerization Act of 2007.

10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_ general_election_2010

11 Article 9, Section C, 1987 Constitution of the Republic of the Philippines

12 National Election Results tally-Eleksiyon 2010-GMA News .TV

13  Ibid.

14 “Voter Turnout 75%” by Evelyn Macairan,, The Philippine Star, Tuesday, May 11, 2010.

 

 

Table 1. Voting population by region, 2010

Region Voting Population Share
(in percent)

Philippines

56,072,200

100

NCR

7,451,800

13.29

CAR

1,024,500

1.83

Region 1 - Ilocos

3,121,500

5.57

Region 2- Cagayan Valley

2,082,300

3.71

Region 3 - Central Luzon

5,899,700

10.52

Region 4A - CALABARZON

7,435,800

13.26

Region 4B - MIMAROPA

1,650,900

2.94

Region 5 - Bicol

3,298,900

5.88

Region 6 - Western Visayas

4,558,700

8.13

Region 7 - Central Visayas

4,260,300

7.60

Region 8 - Eastern Visayas

2,192,300

3.91

Region 9 - Zamboanga Peninsula

1,895,700

3.38

Region 10 - Northern Mindanao

2,612,900

4.66

Region 11 - Davao Region

2,738,300

4.88

Region 12 - SOCCSKARGEN

2,358,900

4.21

Region 13 - CARAGA

1,495,300

2.67

ARMM 1,994,400 3.56

Source: Computed by the NSCB Technical Staff based on Projected Population from NSO

 

Chart 1. Voting Population by Region, 2010

Source: Computed by the NSCB Technical Staff based on Projected Population from NSO

 

Chart 2. Share of Voting Population by Region, 2010

 

Table 2. Total Number of Registered Voters by Sex, 1978 to 2010

Electoral Exercises Total Growth Rate Female Male
Number % Number %

1978 National Elections

21,464,213

 

10,667,776

49.70

10,796,437

50.30

1980 Local Elections

24,881,021

7.67

12,282,111

49.36

12,598,910

50.64

1984 Batasang Pambansa Elections

24,822,438

(0.06)

12,262,484

49.40

12,559,954

50.60

1986 Special Elections

26,278,744

2.89

12,988,156

49.42

13,290,588

50.58

1987 Congressional Elections

26,569,539

1.11

13,110,903

49.35

13,458,636

50.65

1988 Local Elections

27,625,062

3.97

13,605,495

49.25

14,019,567

50.75

1989 Barangay Elections

27,938,065

1.13

13,749,397

49.21

14,188,668

50.79

1992 Synchronized Elections

32,141,079

4.78

15,943,413

49.60

16,197,666

50.40

1995 National & Local Elections

36,415,144

4.25

18,122,994

49.77

18,292,150

50.23

1998 National & Local Elections

34,117,056

(2.15)

17,227,292

50.49

16,889,764

49.51

2001 National & Local Elections

36,354,898

2.14

18,371,329

50.53

17,983,569

49.47

2002 Barangay Elections

37,724,463

1.24

n.a.

-

n.a.

-

2004 National & Local Elections

43,522,634

15.4

21,964,032

50.47

21,359,778

49.08

2007  Local Elections

44,647,213

2.58

22,473,094

50.33

21,937,165

49.13

2010 National & Local Elections

50,723,733

13.6

n.a.

-

n.a.

-

Source of data: COMELEC

 

Table 3. Registered Voters, Voting Population and Registration Rate
in 2004 and 2010

Area 2004 2010
Registered Voters Projected Voting Population Registration Rate (%) Registered Voters Projected Voting Population Registration Rate (%)

  Philippines

43,536,028

48,794,200

89.22

50,723,733

56,221,600

90.22

  NCR

5,925,347

6,709,200

88.32

6,137,728

7,451,800

82.37

  CAR

762,268

863,600

88.27

898,696

1,024,500

87.72

  REGION I

2,323,285

2,730,000

85.10

2,800,508

3,143,600

89.09

  REGION II

1,498,780

1,762,200

85.05

1,823,666

2,082,300

87.58

  REGION III

4,958,425

5,406,700

91.71

5,648,686

5,899,700

95.75

  REGION IV-A

5,528,898

6,219,500

88.90

6,736,126

7,435,800

90.59

  REGION IV-B

1,191,930

1,366,300

87.24

1,465,555

1,650,900

88.77

  REGION V

2,431,584

2,761,600

88.05

2,857,925

3,298,900

86.63

  REGION VI

3,592,213

3,934,900

91.29

3,936,639

4,604,900

85.49

  REGION VII

3,297,946

3,633,300

90.77

3,921,867

4,295,000

91.31

  REGION VIII

2,078,555

2,147,500

96.79

2,431,584

2,192,400

110.91

  REGION IX

1,657,134

1,838,800

90.12

1,856,826

1,895,700

97.95

  REGION X

2,067,109

2,171,000

95.21

2,404,247

2,612,900

92.01

  REGION XI

2,134,415

2,314,400

92.22

2,555,783

2,738,300

93.33

  REGION XII

1,867,539

1,965,300

95.03

1,987,427

2,358,900

84.25

  Caraga

1,163,142

1,247,800

93.22

1,378,132

1,495,300

92.16

  ARMM

1,057,458

1,678,000

63.02

1,882,338

1,994,400

94.38

Source of data:  COMELEC. Projected voting population was estimated by the NSCB based on the projected population from NSO.

 

Table 4. Provinces with Registration Rates of more than 100% in 2010

Area 2010 Registration Rate (%)

Registered  Voters

 Projected Voting Population

Leyte

1,027,767

775,900

132.5

Zamboanga Sibugay

345,876

309,700

111.7

Bataan

463,682

429,800

107.9

Basilan

173,661

165,000

105.2

Kalinga

131,178

125,400

104.6

Camiguin

57,121

55,000

103.9

Nueva Ecija

1,289,804

1,244,600

103.6

Catanduanes

152,719

147,500

103.5

Davao del Sur

1,465,601

1,435,000

102.1

Northern Samar

343,575

338,000

101.6

Samar

448,268

441,800

101.5

Zamboanga del Norte

589,956

582,400

101.3

Eastern Samar

265,807

262,900

101.1

Abra

154,417

154,000

100.3

Source of data: COMELEC. Projected voting population computed by NSCB

 

Table 5. Ten Provinces with Highest Registration Rates in 2010

Area 2010 Registration Rate (%)

Registered  Voters

 Projected Voting Population

Siquijor

61,002

61,000

100.0

Mt. Province

101,983

102,400

99.6

Palawan

535,279

548,900

97.5

Quirino

106,442

110,300

96.5

Zamboanga del Sur

920,994

954,800

96.5

Biliran

98,551

102,600

96.1

Lanao del Sur

515,485

536,800

96.0

Surigao del Sur

335,492

349,800

95.9

Aklan

316,040

330,200

95.7

Bukidnon

727,750

766,700

94.9

Source of data: COMELEC. Projected voting population computed by NSCB

 

Table 6. Bottom Ten Provinces in Registration Rates in 2010

Area 2010 Registration Rate (%)

Registered  Voters

 Projected Voting Population

Sulu

315,104

462,100

68.2

Tawi-tawi

169,598

232,200

73.0

Benguet

347,414

454,700

76.4

Camarines Norte

260,635

329,300

79.1

Compostela Valley

349,766

441,500

79.2

Bulacan

1,479,765

1,863,500

79.4

Batanes

10,194

12,700

80.3

Marinduque

126,176

156,000

80.9

Agusan del Sur

325,642

401,800

81.0

Tarlac

657,950

802,700

82.0

Source of data: COMELEC. Projected voting population computed by NSCB

 

Table 7. Registered Voters By Main Island Groups, 2004, 2007, and 2010

Main Island Group Registered Voters % Increase 2004-2007 % Increase 2007-2010
2004 % Distn 2007 % Distn 2010 % Distn

Philippines

43,536,028

100

45,029,443

100

50,723,733

100

3.4

12.6

    Luzon

24,620,517

56.6

25,150,333

55.9

28,368,890

55.9

2.2

12.8

    Visayas

8,968,714

20.6

9,326,861

20.7

10,290,090

20.3

4

10.3

    Mindanao

9,946,797

22.8

10,552,249

23.4

12,064,753

23.8

6.1

14.3

Source of data: COMELEC.

 

Table 8. Number of Registered Voters By Region, 2007 and 2010

  2007 2010 % Increase
2007-2010

Philippines

44,647,213

50,723,733

 

Luzon

24,911,909

28,368,890

13.88

NCR

5,460,149

6,137,728

12.41

CAR

790,010

898,696

13.76

Region I

2,404,012

2,800,508

16.49

Region II

1,599,510

1,823,666

14.01

Region III

5,097,299

5,648,686

10.82

Region IV-A

5,743,100

6,736,126

17.29

Region IV-B

1,267,695

1,465,555

15.61

Region  V

2,550,134

2,857,925

12.07

Visayas

9,326,997

10,290,090

10.33

Region VI

3,668,321

3,936,639

7.31

Region VII

3,460,577

3,921,867

13.33

Region VIII

2,198,099

2,431,584

10.62

Mindanao

10,408,307

12,064,753

15.91

Region IX

1,695,970

1,856,826

9.48

Region X

2,107,429

2,404,247

14.08

Region XI

2,227,279

2,555,783

14.75

Region  XII

1,763,809

1,987,427

12.68

ARMM

1,375,517

1,882,338

36.85

CARAGA

1,238,303

1,378,132

11.29

Source of data: COMELEC.

 

Chart 3-Ten Provinces with Highest Number
of Registered Voters in 2010

Chart
Source of  basic data: COMELEC

 

Chart 4. Ten Provinces with the Lowest Number of Registered Voters in 2010


Source of  basic data: COMELEC

 

Table 9. Voter's Turnout in Philippine Elections, 1978 to 2010

Years

Registered
Voters

Actually
Voted

Voters
Turnout (%)

1978

21.46

18.35

86

1980

24.88

19.08

77

1984

29.26

26.19

90

1986

26.28

20.71

79

1987

25.04

21.43

86

1988

27.63

21.80

79

1989

27.96

18.87

68

1992

32.14

24.27

76

1995

36.41

25.73

71

1998

34.12

29.48

86

2001

36.36

31.42

86

2002

37.72

26.52

70

2004

43.52

33.51

77

2007

44.65

32.66

73

2010 \1

50.72

38.00

75

\1 - Latest election results count from COMELEC

Source of data: COMELEC

 

Posted: 11 May 2010

 

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