NSCB - Statistically Speaking...Love Affairs by Dr. Romulo A. Virola

Love Affairs
by Dr. Romulo A. Virola ¹
Secretary General, NSCB

How sweet to remember…Love means never having to say you’re sorry…Love is a many-splendored thing….Doubt thou the stars are fire; Doubt that the sun doth move; Doubt truth to be a liar; But never Doubt I love…..

Yes, this month, Statistically Speaking will talk neither about the economy, nor about children, nor about education. We will talk about affairs of the heart.

But before that, it might interest you to know that of the 20 ministers in the cabinet of Bolivian President Evo Morales, half are women! No wonder he won handily in their elections last December! Whoever wins in our elections in May, it is about time this too, happened in the Philippines. Everyone agrees?

And now, dear readers, just what do you know about love-related statistics? Let us look at data from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 Census of Population and Housing (CPH) and the 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008 National Demographic and Health Surveys (NDHS) conducted by the National Statistics Office (NSO) and the administrative records-based Philippine Health Statistics of the National Epidemiology Center (NEC) of the Department of Health (DOH).

In the 1980 and the 1990 censuses, there were very slightly more females than males, but this was reversed in the 2000 census. Indeed, God is great! Can you just imagine what our country would be like if 95% of us were men and only 5% were women? Or worse,…ok, ok.. better (for our friends at the Philippine Commission on Women)…95 % women and 5% men? (Table 1)

There are relatively more men who are single than there are single women! A case of many men being torpe or of women not knowing how to get their men? (Table 1)

Between 1980 and 2000, the proportion of married persons has dropped by about 5 percentage points. Less than half of the population are married, with both Pinoys and Pinays shying away from having to stutter “till death do us part”! In particular, from 54.4% of women aged 15 to 49 who were married in 1993, this dropped to 50.7% in 2008, with the drop felt across all age groups. Has love become more expensive? Or is it because Pinoy men of earlier generations had stronger appeal than this Piolo Pascual or Gerald Anderson! Whatever, for those who are looking to tie yourselves with a knot, you know your prospects have gone higher, provided of course, that you are willing to marry anyone who is unmarried! (Tables 1 and 2)

Four out of 100 Pinoys are widowed: 3 widows and 1 widower. Not so good news for Viagra manufacturers! But no denying there who the stronger sex is and so, if one life insurance must be bought by the family, insure the husband! To wives out there, don’t let your husband secretly take out insurance on your life but none on his! (Table 1 )

The number of divorced/separated Pinoys has doubled between 1980 and 2000! Time to spend less time with the boys, less time for karaoke/videoke bars. Less time watching telenovelas, less time ballroom dancing. More time for the family! (Table 1 )

Four out of 100 Pinoys are in a common law/ live-in arrangement. Sign of the times? But don’t you think the old-fashioned pamanhikan/kasalan sounds more romantic! (Table 1)

In fact, among women 15 to 49 years of age, the proportion of those living in sin, este, those living in together, has more than doubled between 1993 and 2008, from 5 out of 100 to 11 out of 100! Now I understand better why during Sunday masses, the donation baskets in my church go around twice! (Table 2 )

Among women naman na wala na sa kalendaryo pero nasa lotto pa, (35-49 years old), about 6 out of 100 have never been married. Excuse me sa mga natamaan, pero Hindi kayo nag-iisa! Sayang, we have no such statistics on matatandang binata! But as romantics would say, in love, age does not matter! (Table 2 )

And the proportion of women 15-49 years of age who are no longer living together or are separated, has almost doubled between 1993 and 2008, from less than 2 per hundred to 3 per hundred. Does this point to the gradual disintegration of the Pinoy family as an institution? To think that family life is the most important source of happiness for many Pinoys?² How sad! (Table 2)

The median age of women at first marriage has gone up from 22.3 years in 1993 to 23.2 years in 2008 for urban women, and from 20.7 years in 1993 to 21.0 years in 2008 for rural women. But still very young by Commission on Population (PopCom) standards, I am sure. On the average, women in the rural areas marry at least one year earlier than women in urban areas. (Table 3 )

Likewise, the median age at first birth has gone up slightly, and occurs about one year after marriage: from 23.7 years in 1993 to 24.2 years in 2008 for urban women, and from 21.9 years to 22.2 years in 2008 for rural women. (Table 4 )

After love, marriage, and births, how about death?

In total, more men die than women! Of the 426,054 deaths recorded by the DOH in 2005, 250,102 or 58.7 % were male. (Tables 5 and 5a )

Among the leading causes of death, there were more women than men who died because of pneumonia or of diabetes. And between 1999 and 2005 the number of deaths due to diabetes grew the fastest at 11.2%. Really ladies, beware of those chocolate gifts during Valentine’s. (Tables 5, 5a and 6 )

Among the leading causes of mortality, the percentage share of deaths due to lifestyle diseases (LD)³ such as heart disease, stroke, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases and diabetes, has gradually but consistently risen from 46.4% in 1999 to 49.9% in 2005! And out of the 212,521 deaths in 2005 due to LD, 56.3 % were male and 43.7% were female. As Asec Bernie T. Flores of the National Nutrition Council (NNC) advocated last year, “Wastong Nutrisyon Kailangan, Lifestyle Diseases Iwasan!”(Tables 5, 5a and 6 )

And heart disease continues to be the number one killer, increasing from 16.8% of deaths in 1999 to 18.1% in 2005. Out of the 77,060 deaths in 2005 due to heart disease, 56.9% were male and 43.1% were female. Heart disease was the cause of 17.5% of all male deaths and 18.9% of all female deaths in 2005. In fact, between 1999 and 2005, deaths due to heart diseases rose annually by 4.7%, the fourth highest after diabetes, kidney disease, and chronic respiratory diseases Love Affairs must truly be putting a lot of stress to the poor heart, male or female.(Table 5, 5a, 6 and 6a )

There. Women or men, please take care of your hearts. And yes, Valentine’s Day is just six days away. For those who are loveful, enjoy your dates, enjoy your love! But please be careful of the HIV⁴! For those who are loveless, for those who have no dates on Sunday, do not despair. Next year can only be better. Hope springs eternal! After all, love is blind! Or you could do what a friend has been doing all these years…she looks at the obituary pages for grieving, widowed former classmates or lovers, and comforts them! Good luck!

A Happy Valentine’s Day to all!

Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the author at ra.virola@nscb.gov.ph.

________________

¹ Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and Chairman of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC). He holds a Ph. D. in Statistics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, U.S.A. and has taught mathematics and statistics at the University of the Philippines. He is also a past president of the Philippine Statistical Association. The author thanks Fe Sinson of the National Epidemiology Center, DOH, and Lina V. Castro, Jessamyn O. Encarnacion, Racquel V. Sabenano, Carmelita H. Destreza, Marymell A. Martillan, Gerald Junne L. Clarino, Noel S. Nepomuceno, Albert A. Garcia and Candido J. Astrologo, Jr. of the NSCB for the assistance in the preparation of the article. The views expressed in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the NSCB.

² Measuring Progress of Philippine Society: Gross National Product or Gross National Happiness?, paper by Romulo A. Virola and Jessamyn O. Encarnacion presented during the 10th National Convention on Statistics, 1-2 October 2007, EDSA Shangi-la Hotel, Mandaluyong City.

³ Lifestyle or behavior diseases are non-communicable diseases, and are called such because many of the risk factors associated with them are related to how one lives, http://www2.doh.gov.ph/nnc/, http://www.nscb.gov.ph/announce/2009/090710_WA-200907-SS1-01.asp

⁴ A recent study by the University of the Philippines Population Institute “Sexual Practices of Young Call Center and Non-Call Center Workers in Metro Manila” found that “significantly higher proportions of call center workers compared to non-call center workers engage in risky sexual practices which places them at higher risk for adverse health consequences”.

Table 1. Population distribution by marital status, sex and census year

Marital Status	Sex	1980	1990	2000
Marital Status	Sex	Total	Household	Household	Total
Single	Male	23.3	24.5	23.2	23.2
	Female	21.5	22.1	20.6	20.7
	Both Sexes	44.8	46.6	43.8	43.8
Married	Male	25.2	24.2	22.8	22.8
	Female	25.5	24.5	22.9	22.9
	Both Sexes	50.6	48.7	45.7	45.7
Widowed	Male	1.0	0.9	1.0	1.0
	Female	2.9	2.9	3.1	3.1
	Both Sexes	4.0	3.8	4.1	4.1
Divorced/ Separated	Male	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.4
	Female	0.4	0.4	0.6	0.6
	Both Sexes	0.5	0.6	1.0	1.0
Common-Law/Live-in	Male			2.2	2.2
	Female			2.1	2.1
	Both Sexes			4.3	4.3
Unknown*	Male		0.0	0.5	0.5
	Female		0.1	0.5	0.5
	Both Sexes		0.1	1.1	1.1
Not stated	Male	0.0	0.0
	Female	0.1	0.1
	Both Sexes	0.1	0.2
Total	Male	49.7	49.9	50.0	50.1
	Female	50.3	50.1	50.0	49.9
	Both Sexes	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0

* UNKNOWN --- person whose marital status is not known to the respondent, or whose marital status is being concealed by the respondent.

Source: 1980, 1990 and 2000 Census of Population and Housing

Table 2. Distribution of women aged 15-49 by current marital status and age group

Age group of women	Year
Age group of women	1993	1998	2003	2008
Never Married
15-19	92.2	91.5	90.6	88.8
20-24	54.6	56.3	48.7	50.9
25-29	25.1	25	20.8	22.5
30-34	12.2	11.5	10.8	12.2
35-39	6.7	7.5	6.9	7.4
40-44	5.3	7.4	5.5	6.2
45-49	6.3	6.6	4.5	5.0
Total	36.7	36.4	32.2	37.3
Married
15-19	4.7	4.8	3.9	2.9
20-24	38.4	34.5	36.9	26.8
25-29	66.3	64.3	66.4	58.3
30-34	77.9	76.9	77.1	73.4
35-39	81.6	79.7	80	76.9
40-44	81	77.5	79	77.3
45-49	77.3	78.3	78.7	76.6
Total	54.4	53.4	55.6	50.7
Living together
15-19	2.7	3.6	5.1	7.4
20-24	6	7.6	12.7	19.8
25-29	6.3	7.5	9.7	15.7
30-34	5.8	7.2	8	11
35-39	5.9	7.3	7.2	8.7
40-44	5.4	6.4	6.8	7.5
45-49	5.6	4.1	6.6	6.7
Total	5.2	6.2	8	11.2
Widowed
15-19	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
20-24	0.3	0.1	0	0.2
25-29	0.7	0.4	0.2	0.3
30-34	1.4	1.8	0.8	0.9
35-39	2.7	2.2	2.1	2.5
40-44	5.1	4.8	3.8	4.1
45-49	7.6	6.9	6	6.4
Total	1.8	1.7	1.5	1.7
Divorced
15-19	0.0	0.0		0.0
20-24	0.0	0.0		0.1
25-29	0.1	0.1		0.0
30-34	0.3	0.0		0.0
35-39	0.2	0.0		0.2
40-44	0.6	0.0		0.1
45-49	0.6	0.2		0.1
Total	0.2	0.0		0.1
Not living together/separated
15-19	0.3	0.1	0.3	0.9
20-24	0.8	1.5	1.8	2.3
25-29	1.6	2.7	2.8	3.1
30-34	2.5	2.6	3.2	2.5
35-39	2.9	3.3	3.7	4.3
40-44	2.5	3.9	4.9	4.8
45-49	2.6	3.8	4	5.3
Total	1.6	2.3	2.7	3
Percentage distribution of the women in the sample by age group and survey year
15-19	21.0	20.9	19.4	20.2
20-24	17.6	16.4	16.2	15.8
25-29	16.2	15.8	14.9	15.5
30-34	14.6	14.7	14.3	13.7
35-39	12.6	13.2	13.7	13.1
40-44	10.5	10.6	11.5	11.3
45-49	7.6	8.4	9.9	10.4
Total	100.0	100.0	100.0	100.0
Number of women in the sample
15-19	3,158	2,924	2,648	2,749
20-24	2,649	2,299	2,209	2,147
25-29	2,430	2,209	2,034	2,106
30-34	2,196	2,058	1,954	1,865
35-39	1,889	1,842	1,873	1,777
40-44	1,571	1,480	1,564	1,532
45-49	1,137	1,170	1,351	1,418
Total	15,029	13,983	13,633	13,594

Source: National Demographic and Health Survey, 1993,1998, 2003,2008

Table 3. Median age at first marriage among women aged 25-49, by current age,
by residence, and by survey year

Year	Current age
	25-29			30-34			35-39			40-44			45-49			25-49
	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total
1993	22.7	20.9	22.0	22.3	20.7	21.7	22.1	20.6	21.4	22.1	20.7	21.5	22.2	20.3	21.3	22.3	20.7	21.6
1998	24.1	21.2	22.7	23.0	21.1	22.2	22.6	21.0	21.8	22.3	20.7	21.6	22.8	20.8	21.8	23.0	21.0	22.1
2003	23.0	21.1	22.2	23.5	20.7	22.3	22.9	21.1	22.0	22.4	20.7	21.6	22.6	20.7	21.9	22.9	20.9	22.0
2008	23.0	20.9	22.1	23.0	21.4	22.3	23.4	20.9	22.2	23.1	21.2	22.1	23.7	20.6	22.1	23.2	21.0	22.2

Source: National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS)

Table 4. Median age at first birth among women aged 25-49 years, by current age, by residence, and by survey year

Year	Current age
	25-29			30-34			35-39			40-44			45-49			25-49
	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total	Urban	Rural	Total
1993	24.3	22.0	23.1	23.8	21.9	22.9	23	21.7	22.4	23.5	22.1	22.9	23.6	21.5	22.6	23.7	21.9	22.8
1998	24.1	21.2	23.9	23	21.1	23.4	22.6	21.0	23.1	22.3	20.7	22.9	22.8	20.8	23.1	23.0	21.0	23.3
2003	24.2	22.2	23.4	24.5	22.0	23.3	24	22.3	23.2	23.7	22.0	22.9	23.7	22.0	23.1	24.1	22.1	23.2
2008	24.0	22.0	23.1	23.8	22.4	23.3	24.3	22.0	23.2	24.3	22.5	23.4	24.8	21.9	23.3	24.2	22.2	23.2

Source: National Demographic and Health Survey

Table 5. Leading causes of mortality by sex, 2005

Disease	Total	Male	Female
Total Deaths	426,054	250,102	175,952
Death due to lifestyle diseases (LD)	212,521	119,695	92,826
Heart disease	77,060	43,809	33,251
Stroke	54,372	30,531	23,841
Cancer	41,697	21,993	19,704
Pneumonia	36,510	18,145	18,365
Accidents	33,327	27,281	6,046
Tuberculosis, all forms	26,588	18,229	8,359
Chronic respiratory diseases	20,951	14,450	6,501
Diabetes	18,441	8,912	9,529
Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period	12,368	7,385	4,983
Kidney disease	11,056	6,548	4,508
Ill-defined and unknown causes of mortality	23,235

Note: Lifestyle diseases (LD) are shaded
Source of data: National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health

Table 5a. Distribution of the leading causes of death, 2005

By sex			By cause of death			By sex, By cause of death
Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female	Total	Male	Female
100	100	100	100.0	58.7	41.3	100.0	58.7	41.3
49.9	47.9	52.8	100.0	56.3	43.7	49.9	28.1	21.8
18.1	17.5	18.9	100.0	56.9	43.1	18.1	10.3	7.8
12.8	12.2	13.5	100.0	56.2	43.8	12.8	7.2	5.6
9.8	8.8	11.2	100.0	52.7	47.3	9.8	5.2	4.6
8.6	7.3	10.4	100.0	49.7	50.3	8.6	4.3	4.3
7.8	10.9	3.4	100.0	81.9	18.1	7.8	6.4	1.4
6.2	7.3	4.8	100.0	68.6	31.4	6.2	4.3	2.0
4.9	5.8	3.7	100.0	69.0	31.0	4.9	3.4	1.5
4.3	3.6	5.4	100.0	48.3	51.7	4.3	2.1	2.2
2.9	3.0	2.8	100.0	59.7	40.3	2.9	1.7	1.2
2.6	2.6	2.6	100.0	59.2	40.8	2.6	1.5	1.1
						5.5	0.0	0.0

Note: Lifestyle diseases (LD) are shaded
Source of data: National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health

Table 6. Leading causes of mortality , 1999-2005

Disease	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	Average growth rate (1999-2005)
TOTAL DEATHS	347,989	366,931	381,834	396,297	396,331	403,191	426,054	3.4
total top 10	266,008	279,400	293,271	302,271	298,877	304,223	321,314
% top 10 to total	76.4%	76.1%	76.8%	76.3%	75.4%	75.5%	75.4%
Total number of lifestyle diseases (LD)	161,395	171,753	183,347	191,720	191,963	198,592	212,521	4.7
% LD to total	46.4%	46.8%	48.0%	48.4%	48.4%	49.3%	49.9%
Heart disease	58,574	60,417	62,950	70,138	67,696	70,861	77,060	4.7
Stroke	43,671	48,271	53,092	49,519	51,868	51,680	54,372	3.7
Cancer	34,238	36,414	37,832	38,821	39,298	40,524	41,697	3.3
Pneumonia	32,883	32,637	33,939	34,218	32,055	32,098	36,510	1.8
Accidents	30,026	32,355	32,856	33,617	33,966	34,483	33,327	1.8
Tuberculosis, all forms	28,904	27,557	27,351	28,507	26,771	25,870	26,588	-1.4
Chronic respiratory diseases	15,163	15,904	16,969	19,320	18,905	18,975	20,951	5.5
Diabetes	9,749	10,747	12,504	13,922	14,196	16,552	18,441	11.2
Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period	12,800	15,098	15,778	14,209	14,122	13,180	12,368	-0.6
Kidney disease	7,544	7,963	8,871	9,192			11,056	6.6
Ill-defined and unknown causes of mortality					21,363	21,280	23,235

Note: Lifestyle disease (LD) are shaded

Sources of Data:
1999 to 2003 Philippine Health Statistics
2004 and 2005 - National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health

Table 6a. Distribution of leading causes of mortality, 1999-2005

Disease	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005
TOTAL DEATHS	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
total top 10	76.4	76.1	76.8	76.3	75.4	75.5	75.4
% top 10 to total	46.4	46.8	48.0	48.4	48.4	49.3	49.9
Heart disease	16.8	16.5	16.5	17.7	17.1	17.6	18.1
Stroke	12.5	13.2	13.9	12.5	13.1	12.8	12.8
Cancer	9.8	10.5	10.9	11.2	11.3	11.6	12.0
Pneumonia	9.4	9.4	9.8	9.8	9.2	9.2	10.5
Accidents	8.6	9.3	9.4	9.7	9.8	9.9	9.6
Tuberculosis, all forms	8.3	7.9	7.9	8.2	7.7	7.4	7.6
Chronic respiratory diseases	4.4	4.6	4.9	5.6	5.4	5.5	6.0
Diabetes	2.8	3.1	3.6	4.0	4.1	4.8	5.3
Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period	3.7	4.3	4.5	4.1	4.1	3.8	3.6
Kidney disease	2.2	2.3	2.5	2.6	0.0	0.0	3.2
Ill-defined and unknown causes of mortality	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.1	6.1	6.7

Note: Lifestyle disease (LD) are shaded

Sources of Data:
1999 to 2003 Philippine Health Statistics
2004 and 2005 - National Epidemiology Center, Department of Health

Posted: 08 February 2010.