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Statistically Speaking
Are Election Pollsters Losing Their Touch? 
by Dr. Romulo A. Virola 1
Secretary General, NSCB
Close to one month of waiting for the Comelec count, it seems safe to say that both the SWS and Pulse Asia fared better in predicting the results of the senatorial elections in 2004 compared to 2007. The exit poll conducted by Pulse Asia for ABS-CBN in 2007 was also less successful compared to the SWS exit poll in 20042. Makes one wonder!
If one remembers, the last SWS survey prior to the 2004 elections successfully predicted all the winners while Pulse Asia and the SWS exit polls correctly predicted all but one of the winners. However, for the 2007 elections, as of the latest3, and indeed, very, very late Comelec count, but with 10 of the 12 senators already having been proclaimed, all three polls missed two currently winning candidates: the 2-4 May SWS survey had Recto and Zubiri comfortably ahead of Pimentel and Trillanes; the 21-25 April Pulse Asia survey also had Recto well-placed among the predicted winners and Zubiri in the winning circle, again instead of Pimentel and Trillanes; the 14 May exit poll by Pulse Asia4 likewise had Zubiri and Recto in lieu of Cayetano5 and Pimentel.
All 10 proclaimed winners were in the magic 12 of the three surveys except for Cayetano who had the 13th highest votes6 in the Exit Poll. As far as the pre-election surveys are concerned, the top five places would go to Legarda, Escudero, Villar, Lacson and Pangilinan, in various permutations. Also, that only a maximum of sixteen other candidates would have chances.
Happiest over the results of the senatorial elections have to be Trillanes and his handlers. He was trailing all the way, so to speak, until the end when it mattered most, landing 9th in the Exit Poll and 11th in the late(st) Comelec count. Maybe his supporters managed the information from the election surveys well?
Second happiest must be Pimentel, who was outside the top 12 in all three surveys, although he was 13th in Pulse Asia. Of course, Zubiri can still overtake him but he is in 12th right now! Could he have learned from the fate allegedly suffered by his father a few elections ago?
Most disappointing must be what happened to Recto – indeed, as the cliché goes, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory! He was tied for 6th and 7th in the SWS, 9th in Pulse Asia and 12th in the Exit Poll, just 2.5 percentage points from 8th but 3.3 percentage points away from 13th and 5.8 percentage points ahead of Pimentel! Was it dagdag-bawas, a classic case of complacency, or was he just plain unLucky? The Evat? How sad!
Legarda was consistently at the top position, but Escudero leapt mightily in the Exit Poll and has come tantalizingly close to Legarda in the latest Comelec count. Coming from 2nd in the SWS and 3rd in both the Pulse Asia and the Exit Poll, Villar has reason to be a little disappointed, having been overtaken by Lacson for third and being hotly pursued by Pangilinan for fourth.
Comelec data show a total of 45,029,443 registered voters for the 2007 elections and voting rates7 of 76.30% and 76.99%, during the National and Local Elections in 2001 and the 2004, respectively. The average voting rate during the last two national and local elections is therefore 76.64% which estimates a total number of 34,512,817 votes cast during the 2007 elections8. Assuming the rankings and the percentage shares of the votes cast will no longer change materially, and using a similar formula as the one I used in 20049, I give the following ratings: SWS, 78% Pulse Asia, 80% and the Pulse Asia Exit Poll, 80%, with all three receiving a numerical rating of 2.0. Lagot kayo sa nanay nyo! In 2004, SWS received 1.5 for 90%, Pulse Asia, 1.5 for 90% and the SWS Exit Poll, 2.0 for 82%. Clearly, not the trend we want to see!
As a statistician, I would be happy for SWS and Pulse Asia to do consistently well in their survey work, commissioned or not. In the case of the ABS-CBN exit poll, I wished that more details about the exit poll were shared among the kapamilya and even with the kapuso through the ABS-CBN website, in line with best practices in information dissemination. I also pray that the SWS and Pulse Asia will steadfastly maintain the highest degree of professionalism and ethical standards in doing election polls. And with their grades having deteriorated between 2004 and 2007, SWS and Pulse Asia surely need to go read their books again, for the sake of statistics; more importantly as their primordial obligation to their public. Further, I reiterate that they can serve their stakeholders better if they hire different companies for their field operations, in the spirit of genuine competition and true independence. Otherwise, they might as well merge!
As I have always believed, results of election surveys that have been scientifically and professionally conducted are close to being sacrosanct. Provided the elections are honest! Ha Ha Ha! My textmates would say! Nonetheless, politicians, their parties and their campaign managers should learn how to handle the results of these election surveys, if they still haven’t. Surely, they can use the surveys to their advantage, hopefully, through legal and socially-acceptable means. If you are behind, do not waste your time blaming the surveys! You either work hard, in fact, very very hard or else, please do not claim later that you have been cheated! Or that winning is not everything! Double Ho Ho Ho! If you are far behind, as some of the candidates obviously were, wouldn’t it be nice if you could think of ways to deal with your defeat graciously and gracefully? And if you are ahead, never ever allow the election polls to lull you into complacency! Because the competition would just be too happy to text you: He He He! Of course, you can always text back, Hu Hu Hu!
Anyway, did SWS and Pulse Asia err more because the 2007 elections was more difficult to call? More surprises, may be? More magical, could be? Your guess is as good as mine! Happy Independence Day!
Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the author at ra.virola@nscb.gov.ph.
TABLE 06-12-07-1
| CANDIDATES | SWS | PULSE ASIA | ABS-CBN/ PULSE ASIA EXIT POLL | COMELEC | ||||
| May 2-4 , 2007 | April 21-25 | May 14, 2007 | ||||||
| % Votes |
Rank | % Votes |
Rank | % Votes |
Rank | % Votes |
Rank | |
| Legarda, Loren (GO) | 58 | 1 | 59.6 | 1 | 58.5 | 1 | 52.36 | 1 |
| Escudero, Francis Joseph (GO) | 43 | 3 | 47.2 | 2-4 | 53.3 | 2 | 51.74 | 2 |
| Lacson, Panfilo (GO) | 39 | 5 | 43.9 | 2-4 | 46.4 | 4-5 | 44.22 | 3 |
| Villar, Manuel Jr (GO) | 46 | 2 | 47 | 2-4 | 49.8 | 3 | 43.48 | 4 |
| Pangilinan, Francis (IND) | 41 | 4 | 38.8 | 5-10 | 44.6 | 4-6 | 41.23 | 5 |
| Aquino, Benigno Simeon III (GO) | 36 | 6-7 | 35.5 | 5-12 | 42.6 | 5-7 | 40.72 | 6 |
| Angara, Edgardo (TU) | 31 | 11-12 | 35.2 | 5-12 | 41.1 | 6-7 | 35.31 | 7 |
| Cayetano, Alan Peter (GO) | 34 | 8 | 38.2 | 5-10 | 31 | 13-14 | 33.50 | 8 |
| Arroyo, Joker (TU) | 31 | 11-12 | 33.4 | 7-4 | 36.8 | 8-11 | 32.98 | 9 |
| Honasan, Gregorio (IND) | 32 | 9-10 | 35.7 | 5-12 | 34.6 | 8-12 | 32.87 | 10 |
| Trillanes, Antonio IV (GO) | 24 | 15-16 | 22 | 16-21 | 35.4 | 8-12 | 31.81 | 11 |
| Pimentel, Aquilino III (GO) | 25 | 14 | 30.1 | 11-15 | 28.5 | 14-17 | 30.88 | 12 |
| Zubiri, Juan Miguel (TU) | 32 | 9-10 | 32 | 7-14 | 34.9 | 8-12 | 30.55 | 13 |
| Recto, Ralph (TU) | 36 | 6-7 | 35.4 | 5-12 | 34.3 | 9-12 | 29.76 | 14 |
| Defensor, Michael (TU) | 24 | 15-16 | 25.6 | 14-20 | 28.2 | 14-18 | 27.69 | 15 |
| Pichay, Prospero Jr (TU) | 23 | 17-19 | 24 | 15-21 | 30.4 | 13-17 | 27.02 | 16 |
| Roco, Sonia (GO) | 23 | 17-19 | 27 | 13-18 | 28.4 | 14-17 | 24.16 | 17 |
| Montano, Cesar (TU) | 23 | 17-19 | 20.8 | 18-21 | 24 | 19 | 21.77 | 18 |
| Sotto, Vicente III (TU) | 27 | 13 | 29.2 | 11-17 | 26.2 | 17-18 | 21.01 | 19 |
| Osmena, John Henry (GO) | 18 | 20-21 | 25.1 | 14-20 | 21.6 | 20-21 | 20.69 | 20 |
| Magsaysay, Vicente (TU) | 18 | 20-21 | 22.8 | 16-21 | 19.9 | 20-21 | 17.78 | 21 |
| Coseteng, Anna Dominique (GO) | 13 | 22-23 | 13.7 | 22-24 | 14.8 | 22 | 15.08 | 22 |
| Oreta, Teresa (TU) | 13 | 22-23 | 10.3 | 24-25 | 11.6 | 23-24 | 12.08 | 23 |
| Singson, Luis (TU) | 11 | 25 | 11.2 | 22-25 | 11.6 | 23-24 | 11.71 | 24 |
| Gomez, Richard (IND) | 12 | 24 | 14.1 | 22-24 | 8.9 | 25 | 7.70 | 25 |
| Kiram III, Jamalul (TU) | 6 | 26 | 3.8 | 27-30 | 6.6 | 26 | 6.26 | 26 |
| Chavez, Melchor (KBL) | 3 | 27-28 | 6.1 | 26 | 3 | 27-29 | 2.39 | 27 |
| Bautista Martin (AK) | 2 | 29-33 | 2.4 | 27-33 | 2.6 | 27-29 | 2.17 | 28 |
| Paredes, Zosimo Jesus II (AK) | 2 | 29-33 | 1.1 | 31-37 | 1.6 | 30-34 | 2.03 | 29 |
| Cayetano, Joselito (KBL) | 3 | 27-28 | 3.9 | 27-30 | 2.9 | 27-29 | 1.44 | 30 |
| Sison, Adrian (AK) | 1 | 34-38 | 1.7 | 29-37 | 1.7 | 30-33 | 1.14 | 31 |
| Lozano, Oliver (KBL) | 2 | 29-33 | 1.8 | 29-36 | 1.4 | 30-34 | 0.86 | 32 |
| Estrella, Antonio (KBL) | 1 | 34-38 | 1.6 | 30-37 | 1.1 | 31-36 | 0.81 | 33 |
| Wood, Victor (KBL) | 2 | 29-33 | 3.1 | 27-32 | 1.4 | 30-34 | 0.80 | 34 |
| Cantal, Felix (PGRP) | 1 | 34-38 | 1.1 | 31-37 | 0.7 | 34-36 | 0.34 | 35 |
| Orpilla, Eduardo (KBL) | 0.2 | 34-38 | 0.9 | 31-37 | 0.7 | 34-36 | 0.29 | 36 |
| Enciso, Ruben (KBL) | 0.1 | 34-38 | 0.7 | 32-37 | 0.3 | 37 | 0.27 | 37 |
Source: Social Weather Station, Pulse Asia and Comelec
Note:
The Comelec percentages were derived by dividing the votes received as of June 6, 2007 - 3:00pm by 34,512,817, the NSCB-estimated number of actual voters in 2007. Comelec count is as of 3 p.m. of June 6, 2007, with only 2 out of 104 Certificates of Canvass not accounted for – those for the provinces of Surigao del Sur and Maguindanao with 261,703 and 212,921 registered voters, respectively.
TABLE 06-12-07-2
| CANDIDATES | SWS | PULSE ASIA | ABS-CBN/ PULSE ASIA EXIT POLL | |||
| May 2-4, 2007 | April 21-25, 2007 | May 14, 2007 | ||||
| Winner Points | % Votes Points |
Winner Points | % Votes Points |
Winner Points | % Votes Points |
|
| Legarda, Loren (GO) | 50 | 10 | 50 | 6 | 50 | 8 |
| Escudero, Francis Joseph (GO) | 50 | 4 | 50 | 12 | 50 | 18 |
| Lacson, Panfilo (GO) | 50 | 10 | 50 | 20 | 50 | 16 |
| Villar, Manuel Jr (GO) | 50 | 16 | 50 | 14 | 50 | 8 |
| Pangilinan, Francis (IND) | 50 | 20 | 50 | 16 | 50 | 14 |
| Aquino, Benigno Simeon III (GO) | 50 | 12 | 50 | 10 | 50 | 18 |
| Angara, Edgardo (TU) | 50 | 12 | 50 | 20 | 50 | 10 |
| Cayetano, Alan Peter (GO) | 50 | 20 | 50 | 12 | 0 | 16 |
| Arroyo, Joker (TU) | 50 | 18 | 50 | 20 | 50 | 14 |
| Honasan, Gregorio (IND) | 50 | 20 | 50 | 16 | 50 | 18 |
| Trillanes, Antonio IV (GO) | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 50 | 14 |
| Pimentel, Aquilino III (GO) | 0 | 10 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 16 |
| Sub-Total | 500 | 158 | 500 | 168 | 500 | 170 |
| Maximum Score | 600 | 240 | 600 | 240 | 600 | 240 |
| Sub-Rating | 83% | 83% | 83% | |||
| GRAND RATING | 658 | 668 | 670 | |||
| GRAND MAXIMUM SCORE | 840 | 840 | 840 | |||
| OVERALL RATING | 78.33% | 79.52% | 79.76% | |||
Source: Social Weather Station, Pulse Asia and Comelec
______________________
1 Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and Chairman of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC). He holds a Ph. D. in Statistics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, U.S.A. and has taught mathematics and statistics at the University of the Philippines. He is also a past president of the Philippine Statistical Association. The author thanks Noel S. Nepomuceno, Severa B. de Costo, and Candido J. Astrologo for the assistance in the preparation of the article. He also thanks the data sources, particularly the Comelec, the Social Weather Station, Pulse Asia and ABS-CBN.
2 We will refer to the three 2007 surveys as the SWS, Pulse Asia and the Exit Poll.
3 As of today, the latest Comelec count is as of 3 p.m. of June 6, 2007, with only 2 out of 104 Certificates of Canvass not accounted for – those for the provinces of Surigao del Sur and Maguindanao with 261,703 and 212,921 registered voters, respectively.
4 In 2004, it was SWS that conducted an exit poll. In 2007, Pulse Asia did the Exit Poll for ABS-CBN.
5 The Comelec had ruled that a vote for “Cayetano” would be a stray vote because there was another candidate surnamed “Cayetano”. In the results released by ABS-CBN, Pulse Asia therefore counted a vote for Cayetano as stray and not credited to Alan Peter Cayetano.
6 Actually, Pulse Asia and the Exit Poll ranked the candidates taking into consideration the standard errors but this article ranks the candidates purely on the basis of percentage of votes received.
7 Ratio of registered voters who actually voted to total number of registered voters.
8 The Comelec has an “incomplete” estimate as of June 6, 2007 – 3:00 pm of 42,453,236 registered voters and 28,945,710 registered voters who actually voted.
9 See Statistically Speaking, 12 July 2004 “On Election Polls: Part IV Who Did Better – SWS or Pulse Asia”, http://www.nscb.gov.ph
Posted 12 June 2007.
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