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Statistically Speaking
Typhoons, Agriculture and Our Forest 
by Dr. Romulo A. Virola 1
Secretary General, NSCB
Typhoons Unding, Violeta, Winnie and Yoyong were estimated to have destroyed P2.7 billion worth of palay, corn, coconut and high-value commercial crops in Luzon according to Sen. Mar Roxas. Based on NSCB computations, this is expected to reduce the growth of Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry (AFF) in the fourth quarter by 1.7 percentage points and our GDP growth by at least 0.35 percentage point. The damage inflicted by the typhoons came right after the agricultural sector boosted the economy during the third quarter with its impressive growth of 7.9% year on year and 6.5% quarter on quarter (seasonally-adjusted).
While many continue to ululate with their usually unproductive debate on
who to blame for the disaster, and whether it was the landslides or illegal
logging that devastated the lives of many of our countrymen, particularly
in Quezon, let me cite some statistics that should
wake us up from our many years of deep slumber! Unless, we sadistically and
masochistically crave a repeat of what our nation suffered in Real,
Infanta and Dingalan!
According to data available at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the Philippines has the 6th largest land area of 29.8 million hectares among the 10 ASEAN countries behind Indonesia, 181.1 million; Myanmar, 65.8 million; Thailand, 51.1 million; Malaysia, 32.9 million; and Vietnam, 32.6 million. However, in terms of total forest area, we are only 8th with 5.8 million hectares and ahead only of Brunei and Singapore! In fact, in 2002, our forest comprised only 19.4 % of our land, way below the ASEAN average of 48.7% and the second lowest in the region. Brunei has the highest with 83.9%, followed by Malaysia with 58.7% and Lao PDR with 54.4%. In eighth place is Thailand with 28.9%, then us and last is Singapore with 3.3%. Our forest covers 0.1 hectare per capita, same as Vietnam, and higher only than Singapore. Lao PDR has the highest at 2.4 hectares per capita.
But worse is the fact that during the past decade, we together with Myanmar, desecrated and denuded our forests at the fastest annual rate of a loss of 1.4% per year! Vietnam has the best record of an annual addition rate of 0.5% per year followed by Brunei and Lao PDR with annual losses of 0.2 and 0.4%, respectively. In terms of forest area lost each year, we were fifth highest with 89 thousand hectares per year, behind Indonesia (1312 thousand ha.), Myanmar (517), Malaysia (237) and Thailand (112). If this should continue, disaster and more disasters should not be far behind!
Now, let us go back to agriculture. Specifically, let us compare ourselves with our ASEAN neighbors and competitors in terms of total production and yield per hectare.
For rice, our major crop with a share of 16.8% of GVA for Agriculture, Fishery
and Forestry (AFF) in 2003, we are the 5th largest producer behind Indonesia,
Vietnam, Thailand and Myanmar. 
The good news is that the ratio of our rice
production to the total of these four countries has risen from 9.4% in 2000
to 10.2% in 2003. Our productivity of 34.3 thousand hectograms per hectare
in 2003 is lower than those for Vietnam (46.3 thousand hg/ha), Indonesia
(45.4) and Myanmar (37.1) but we get more per hectare than Thailand (24.5).
For corn, our second major crop with a share of 5.1% of GVA of AFF, we were second behind Indonesia from 2000 to 2002 but in 2003, Thailand caught up with us producing 4.50 million metric tons compared to our 4.48 million metric tons and Indonesia’s 10.91. Moreover, our productivity of 18.0 thousand hg/ha. is the worst in 2003 among the 8 corn-producing ASEAN countries. Thailand and Indonesia are tops with 39.1 and 32.5 thousand hg/ha. Brunei and Singapore do not produce corn. Another bad news is that our maize production has gone down proportionately to the production of Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, the three other major ASEAN producers from 27.9% in 2000 to 24.4% in 2003
For mango, now our third major crop with a share of 4.4% of GVA of AFF, we caught up with Indonesia as the second major producer (890 thousand Mt in 2003) , but still far behind Thailand (1750 thousand Mt). Our production as a percentage of those for the other top ASEAN producers - Vietnam in addition to Thailand and Indonesia - went up slightly from 31.6% in 2000 to 31.9% in 2003. Our productivity of 64.5 thousand hg/ha in 2003 is also higher than that for these three countries but lower than two minor producers: Cambodia and Lao PDR. Hooray to Guimaras!
For coconut, with a share of 3.6% of GVA of AFF, we continue to be second (13.7 million metric tons in 2003) behind Indonesia (15.6 million Mt) and far ahead of the rest of the ASEAN countries. Our share of production compared to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam has also increased from 74.7% in 2000 to 76.2% in 2003. However, with the emergence of the virgin oil industry, we need to do something about our poor productivity ranking of only 6th in the region behind Singapore, Myanmar, Vietnam, Indonesia and Cambodia. We produce only 43.6 thousand hg/ha. compared to 86.7 for Singapore, 80.5 for Myanmar and 67.7 for Vietnam. And Thailand is right behind us at 42.4 thousand hg/ha.
For banana, with a share of 2.3% of GVA of AFF, we are still tops and going
very strong. We produced 5.5 million Mt in 2003 compared to 4.3 million Mt
of Indonesia and 1.8 million Mt of Thailand. Our share of production compared
to Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, has risen from 74.4% in 2000 to 75.0%
in 2003. And our productivity of 137.5 thousand hectograms per hectare in
2003 is highest among the top producers but lower than Malaysia’s 205.4
thousand hg/ha.
We should therefore be glad that our major crops, except for corn, seem to be doing comparatively well during the last few years. By all means, let us push and support the programs that will sustain our advantage! Buy Philippine products and Merry Christmas to All!
Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the author at ra.virola@nscb.gov.ph.
_______________
1 Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and Chairman of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC). He holds a Ph. D. in Statistics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, USA and has taught mathematics and statistics at the University of the Philippines. He is also a past president of the Philippine Statistical Association.
Posted 13 December 2004.
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