 |
 |
|||
 |
|
|||
| |
|
|||
|
|
|||
Statistically Speaking
THE POPULATION CENSUS: THE YOUNG, THE OLD AND YOUR
BUSINESS! 
by Dr. Romulo A. Virola 1
Secretary General, NSCB
By virtue of Executive Order No. 352, Series of 1996, a census of population was to have been conducted by the National Statistics Office (NSO) this year, but funds for its conduct were not provided. The mid-decade census might yet be conducted next year, however, because DBM Secretary Romulo L. Neri has pushed for it!
The census of population is a statistical activity that is conducted every ten years in 170 out of 204 countries/special autonomous areas 2. However, in 27 countries ( in 5 out of 40 countries in Asia ), including the Philippines, quinquennial censuses have been conducted in the past.
Population censuses are expensive 3 In the 2000 Census of Population and Housing, our NSO spent P948 million or P12.39 per Pinoy counted. For its 2001 census, Canada, with less than half the Philippine population, spent 429 million Canadian dollars or U.S. $ 9.24 per capita 4 . On the other hand, the U.S., with a population close to four times ours, spent $6.5 billion or $23.10 per capita for its 2000 census 5. Closer to home, Thailand spent 580 million bahts or U.S. $14.5 million at 24 U.S cents per capita, lower than our cost of 30 U.S. cents6.
This early, the UN Statistics Division has started the global preparation for the 2010 round of population censuses. Discussions are ongoing electronically on various principles and recommendations related to this important statistical event.
Nothwithstanding its cost, the population census is a very rich source of data to inform and widen people's choices. Let us look, for example at the age-sex distribution of the Pinoy population. Ours, like those of many countries, is an ageing population, with a median age of 21.4 in 2000. This means that at least half of the population are below 22 years of age. In 1970, the median age of the Pinoys was 16.9 and in the year 2020, we will be 26.5 years old on the average. Obviously , we are not quite as gurang as the Japanese or the Americans, who in 2000 had median ages of 41.5 and 35.3 years, respectively. It may be of interest to note that in 1820, the median age of the Americans was at sweet 16.7 years.
As of the latest (2000) Census, for every 100 Pinoys 7 , about 5 are infants, 38 are children between two and 17 years of age, 51 are between 18 and 59 years of age, 2 are in the retirable ages between 60 and 64, 3 are hopefully enjoying their retirement years between 65 and 80, and less than 1 belongs to the group at least as old as our octogenarian lolo/lola . Thirty five years ago, we had a younger group of Pinoys: about 6 infants, 46 children, 43 between ages 18 and 59, less than 2 between 60 and 64, less than 2 between 65 and 80 and less than 1 aged 80 or over. Fifteen years from now, the number of Pinoys 65 years or over will increase from about 4 per hundred in 2000 to 7.
What are the possible implications of these demographics on your business plans?
If you are in the dairy milk industry, you ought to realize that if current fertility, morbidity and mortality trends continue, your corporate strategies should factor in the fact that the number of babies needing your infant formula milk will go down further. Not so good for your business!
Same with insurance. Since the population is ageing, all other things being equal, the risk is getting greater and insurance premiums and benefits have to be computed accordingly!
But if you are in the business of providing caregiver services, you have every reason to rejoice as your target market is expanding every day! Except that at the rate even fifty year-old medical doctors are trooping to nursing schools, the domestic market alone cannot accommodate all these nurses and our educational system is once more catering to the needs of other countries the way of our many doctors from the PGH who have migrated to the States. Corollarily, demand will continue to expand for products and services like virgin coconut oil, Belo's liposuction and face and other lifting services, viagra ( one friend says cialis is better ) and ballroom dancing!
And if your business is the provision of educational services, particularly college education, you should be concerned that the number of Pinoys who comprise your market, i.e. those in the 15-24 age bracket, will dwindle from about 20 per hundred to 18 in fifteen years. Thus, your market will shrink by about 10 %, and government might as well not allow further proliferation of colleges and universities, including and especially our underperforming state universities and colleges or sucs.
Etc. In short, information is power and in this age of global trade and competition you should run your business using quality information! Statistical databases should certainly be part of your infrastructure and your investments, even if you must consult a feng shui expert every now and then. At the NSCB website, you can access a lot of these databases, and if you need more, please tell us.
Unfortunately, in spite of the great use of data coming from population censuses, people have not been consistently and universally cooperative in providing quality information to statistical agencies. Some of us simply refuse to be interviewed or to fill up the questionnaire; others are careless and commit mistakes in responding to certain questions; but worse, there are those who deliberately give wrong information. And yet, data users complain when the statistics they get from statistical agencies are of seemingly questionable quality! How unfair could you get naman ? Garbage in, garbage out, di ba ?Sadly, even governments have not seen into the potential usefulness of census data and have not always given top priority to the census in the budgeting process. Maybe, because of the cost involved. This dilemma should thus prod statistical agencies to be more proactive in managing the census. We should continually think of innovative ways of collecting, analyzing, disseminating and using information. We should be more cost-effective!
Partly due to the high cost of conducting a census, Statistics Netherlands opted for the “Dutch Virtual Census of 2001” using available data from registers and surveys, instead of the usual full enumeration done for a census. By opting for this alternative, the Dutch government spent only about three million euros, instead of the three hundred million euros that would have been spent for a real census of a population less than one-fourth that of the Philippines!8
Should a virtual census be considered in the Philippines? With our limited financial resources, with the advances in information and communications technology and with the technical competence of the Pinoy in IT, indeed, why not? Is it going to work? For the time being, I say sadly, virtually impossible!
Because, for a virtual census to succeed, good survey data and administrative records like a population register and/or civil registration system must be available. Like most developing countries, we do not have a population register, and while our civil registration system has improved over the years, the extent of under-registration is non-ignorable! And fortunately or unfortunately, we live in a society where many powerful people seem to be suspicious and scared of a national ID system. Suspiciously scared and scaringly suspicious, one may add!
In the meantime, we must continue to rely on the good old population census, and if we want good information for the good of our business, we must invest good money for a good census! May we all have a good November!
Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the author at ra.virola@nscb.gov.ph.
_______________
1 Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and Chairman of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC). He holds a Ph. D. in Statistics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, USA and has taught mathematics and statistics at the University of the Philippines. He is also a past president of the Philippine Statistical Association.
2 http://unstats.un.org/unsd/demographic/sources/cemsus/censusdates.htm
3 The costs cited here should not be compared directly because of differences in purchasing power. Cost per household may also be a better indicator.
4 Email inquiry with Statistics Canada.
5 Email inquiry with the Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau
6 Email inquiry with NSO Thailand
7 Counted in the census are residents of the Philippine economic territory in the context of national accounting. Thus, among those included are Philippine diplomatic personnel assigned abroad, Filipino overseas workers and citizens of foreign countries who have established residence in the Philippines.
8 Statistics Netherlands. “The Dutch Virtual Census of 2001, Analysis and Methodology”, 2004
Posted 14 November 2005.
 |
  |
 |
||||||
  E-mail the webmaster |
Terms of Use |
Home • Top of Page | ||||||
1997-2008,
National Statistical Coordination Board |
||||||||