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Statistically Speaking by Dr. Romulo A. Virola1
Lights, fuel, action! Energizing the nation thru statistics 2
With the celebration of the 17th National Statistics Month (NSM) this October, this year’s theme, “Empowering Consumers Through Responsive Energy Statistics” or “Pagbibigay-Kapangyarihan sa mga Konsumer sa Tulong ng Makabuluhang Estadistikang Pang-Enerhiya”, emphasizes the importance of statistics in empowering the Filipino consumers through relevant, timely and accurate energy statistics.
The NSM is an annual celebration of the Philippine Statistical System (PSS) spearheaded by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB). In this year’s celebration, the PSS recognizes the usefulness of energy statistics in enabling the consumers to make informed decisions in their daily activities. But how important is it really to our lives to understand some figures about energy? Perhaps before we answer this question, we can review some basic facts about energy.
Our science textbooks in grade school define energy as the ability to do work. And if we really think about it, it’s what actually makes people and everything around us move. Everything we do seems connected to energy in one form or another. Energy lights and warms up our homes, cooks our food, fuels our cars and other transport systems, and allows us to electronically enjoy sights and sounds. It powers up our places of work, study, health, and recreation. It keeps our businesses and industries running. Energy enables every possible human activity and therefore provides the lifeline of society. Conversely, the absence of energy, in the form of electricity, could hamper us in performing our daily activities, as what the typhoon Milenyo did when his rage interrupted the power supply in our homes and industries less than two weeks ago.
There is no question that the energy sector is vital to our national development. Electricity and petroleum products, the primary commodities of the sector, are basic to economic activities across many sectors of society. A sufficient and stable supply of energy is necessary to sustain development.
Just to be a little clearer on energy’s worth, let us look at some energy statistics.
Per capita consumption of energy in the Philippines in 20053 is estimated at 3.4 barrels of fuel oil equivalent (BFOE). At US$ 49.384 per barrel of fuel oil in the world market, each Filipino spent about US$ 168 or PhP 9,2545 to satisfy her/his energy requirements in 2005. This demand was met from local sources, 55.87 percent6 and the rest from imported sources. Based on projections made by the Department of Energy (DOE), energy demand per capita is expected to be at 3.01 BFOE in 2010, 61.5 percent of which would be met from local sources7. That is, if we cooperate with the government program to promote energy efficiency and conservation.
On the other hand, the results of the Household Energy Consumption Survey (HECS) conducted by the NSO in 2004 revealed that 14.6 million households or 87.6 percent of the 16.6 million households used electricity, a transformed energy, to fuel their homes. Electricity was used mainly in lighting. Second major use of electricity is for household recreation such as use of televisions and players (vhs, dvd, cd, stereo, etc). Other types of fuel used in households, particularly for cooking, include Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene and non-conventional types of fuels or the biomass. About 52 percent or 8.6 million households used LPG while 9.4 million households or 56 percent utilized kerosene. Users of non-conventional energy (biomass) such as fuel wood, charcoal and biomass residue were observed at 55 percent, 34 percent, and 18.9 percent of the total number of households, respectively. 1.9 million and 551 thousand households used gasoline and diesel, which were consumed primarily for transportation, respectively.
And where do our energy resources come from? Our energy supply mix is composed of indigenous and imported energy. Indigenous energy comes from domestically produced oil and oil products, natural gas, coal, geothermal, hydro, biomass, solar and wind. On the other hand, imported energy largely comes from oil and coal. These are either used in power generation to become the electricity that lights up our homes or refined (in the case of oil and oil products) to become the fuel that runs our industries and transportations.
The mounting prices of imported oil, on which the Philippines is almost 100%8 dependent over the years, prompted the government to prepare measures that will help the country to move away from utilizing imported oil and towards greater use of indigenous energy resources, renewable energy and other alternative fuels. We have to aspire for energy independence.
And what do we mean by energy independence?
The Philippine Energy Plan (PEP) crafted under the leadership of the Department of Energy (DOE) defines energy self-sufficiency level as the ratio of indigenous production over primary energy supply (net of exports, bunkering and stock change). Energy independence, thus, pertains to the capacity of the country to derive its energy supply from local sources. The PEP goal is to reach 60 percent self-sufficiency level by 2010. This means that by 2010, we will be able to source three-fifths of the total energy supply of the country from local sources. Achieving this goal will surely cushion the effects of the continuously rising oil prices and divert some of our resources to the delivery of basic services much needed by our people.
As cited earlier, our self-sufficiency level in 2005 reached 55.87 percent, 5.69 percentage points higher than the 50.18 percent level achieved in 2002. Translating it into levels of energy produced as measured in million barrels of fuel oil equivalent (MMBFOE), we were able to domestically produce 153.13 MMBFOE of the 274.09 MMBFOE primary energy supply in 2005. Geothermal energy was the prime source of indigenous supply towards energy independence, increasing from 17.66 MMBFOE in 2002 to 58.98 MMBFOE in 2005, posting almost a 234 percent growth. Local coal likewise increased its share in the total energy supply from 5.37 MMBFOE in 2002 to 10.53 MMBFOE in 2005. Natural gas, contributed 18.70 MMBFOE in 2005, an increase of almost 67 percent from the 11.20 MMBFOE in 2002.
It should be noted however, that increasing production of indigenous energy does not necessarily translate into increasing energy independence. Obviously, expansion in economic activities creates greater energy demand - the phenomenal growth of the economy of China has caused energy demand to shoot up, which in turn, has led to the unthinkably high oil prices we now have to pay. Our path towards energy independence is likewise endangered if our population will grow faster than we can increase energy supply. Tough challenges, indeed for our men and women in the energy family.
But as individual consumers of energy, we have our own role to play, our own share of responsibility towards energy independence.
Energy, whether in the form of electricity or petroleum fuel, when delivered to our homes and industries does not come free of charge. It entails some costs, which sometimes become so dear particularly when sources become scarce and consequently, our supply becomes limited. Thus we need to find ways on how we can use energy wisely and save on our peso. This is where knowledge of energy statistics will help. How can energy statistics empower us, the users of energy? Let us count the ways.
If we know that we can save as much PhP 1789 per month by not letting our television go on standby mode 24 hours a day, seven days a week, then we should not be too lazy nor take for granted pulling the TV plug when we leave our homes or whenever we are not going to watch our favorite telenovelas. The same thing is true for other appliances such as the microwave oven, which consumes 15 watts (equivalent to PhP 95) per month when left on standby mode. Our entertainment media, which help us loosen up and relieve stress (even if temporarily!), can consume as much PhP 200 a month when we do not completely turn them off by pulling their plugs. A hi-fi stereo or a vcd/dvd player consumes PhP 127 and PhP 89, respectively, in a month when left on standby mode. Isn’t it great to know all these things and help us save our hard earned peso?
One of the strategies of government towards energy independence is the increased use of alternative fuels. The DOE’s alternative fuel program will promote the use of fuels that are not purely petroleum. This program will, aside from lessen the use of imported oil thus reducing dependency on imported oil, provide cheaper and a more environmental-friendly substitute to fossil fuel. Alternative fuels include biodiesel, bioethanol, and natural gas. Biodiesel is renewable and biodegradable fuel extracted from plant oils and can be combined with diesel fuel in small amount. The coconut is being tapped as one of the major sources of biodiesel. We, the Pinoys, being the pioneer in the use of coconut as source of biodiesel, have initiated the Coco-biodiesel program that will promote the use of coco-biodiesel. Coco-biodiesel, also called Coco-Methyl Ester (CME) is combined with diesel fuel. According to the DOE, a 1 percent CME blend could save 40 million liters of imported diesel, which could translate to a savings of approximately PhP 1.1 billion per year.
The bioethanol program of the government, on the other hand, will promote the use of ethanol, a light alcohol produced by fermenting carbohydrates such as starch or sugar, to be blended in moderate (less than 10%) amount with gasoline. To date, the use of gasoline blended with bioethanol is already available in some of the major gasoline stations and is priced 0.50 centavos10cheaper than its unleaded gasoline counterpart. With a 0.50 centavos saving for every liter of gasoline we purchase, we can already watch one movie for every 200 liters of gasoline that we consume.
Thus, the alternative fuels, the biodiesel and bioethanol, are not only cheaper than the purely petroleum fuels; they are also more environmental-friendly. Knowing that these fuels can benefit our pocket and our health as well, shouldn’t it be a sufficient and in fact, necessary incentive for us to patronize these products?
Those are just a few examples of energy statistics that are valuable to us consumers. Knowing these empowers us by guiding us how to make wise decisions in our daily life. Unfortunately, these and other practical information about energy are sometimes not readily accessible and available to each and every one of us. Further, many of the useful energy statistics and indicators are either not updated or do not exist at all. This is because the statistical mechanisms that generate these data are usually not provided with the funds necessary for them to be conducted in a timely and regular manner. In the case of those statistics that are already available, sometimes they do not reach their target users because of ineffective or nonexistent dissemination strategies.
Given the importance of these energy statistics, we should bear in mind that the quality of these statistics is equally vital. Lest we end up making “misinformed” decisions rather than informed decisions, the quality of these statistics, therefore, must be given priority attention.
Cognizant of the value of energy statistics, the PSS through the NSCB, will spearhead the creation of an Inter-Agency Committee on Energy Statistics (IACES) that will steer the development of energy statistics in the country. The creation of the IACES will facilitate the institutionalization of statistical reforms in the energy sector through the DOE and the energy family. Furthermore, the IACES will serve as the venue to resolve statistical issues and formulate statistical policy recommendations to the NSCB Executive Board.
Another milestone in the development of energy statistics is the signing of Proclamation 1140 entitled “Adopting the Philippine Statistical Development Program”, wherein one of the chapters deals with energy statistics. Through the statistical development programs (SDPs) on the energy sector, a better-coordinated energy statistical system in the country will be established that will facilitate the generation and dissemination of accurate energy information on a regular and timely basis. The attainment of these SDPs is expected to contribute to evidence-based energy policies and programs, the promotion of open and fair competition among industry players and consequently, the empowerment of the Filipino consumers.
Assured of quality energy statistics, we, the consumers, could then take advantage of the knowledge that these statistics could provide us. For one, we should always try to use statistical information in performing our daily tasks. Furthermore, we should conscientiously strive to use energy efficiently, thereby conserving energy, not only for our own personal benefit, but also for a larger purpose. Surely, we can help in achieving our national goal towards energy independence by making efficient use of energy as a way of life. We can help conserve energy by maintaining our electrical appliances and equipment in good working conditions. We can also use energy efficiently by simply turning off the unnecessary or not in-use lights and electrical appliances. This means that, we should turn off our television setswhile waiting for the playtime of our favorite “Love Story in Harvard” or “Crazy for You”. We can also burn our fats and calories through the use of our body energy by fanning ourselves with our anahaw pamaypay rather than burning fossil fuels using the electric fans or aircons while watching TV. We can also turn off the lights, adding excitement and romance while watching television with our loved one.
After all, the responsibility of ensuring that we have sustainable energy supply for our children and for our children’s children, lies not only on the shoulders of our government, but on the concerted efforts of the citizenry as a whole. Then, even if our population reaches 94.0 million11 in 2010, we can be certain that we will achieve energy independence and that we will have ample supply of energy to energize our lives.
Happy National Statistics Month to all!
Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the authors at jr.penaflor@nscb.gov.ph and mt.reyes@nscb.gov.ph
1 Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and Chairman of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC). He holds a Ph. D. in Statistics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, USA and has taught mathematics and statistics at the University of the Philippines. He is also a past president of the Philippine Statistical Association.
2 This article was written by Josephine P. Ferre (jr.penaflor@nscb.gov.ph) Statistical Coordination Officer IV and Minard T. Reyes (mt.reyes@nscb.gov.ph) Statistical Coordination Officer II of the Economic Indicators and Satellite Accounts Division (EISAD) of the NSCB.
3 Computed as the ratio of total energy consumption for 2005 over the estimated population in 2005 (2000-based Census of Population and Housing).
4 Average for 2005. Source: Department of Energy oil monitoring
5 2005 average foreign exchange rate (US$ 1 = PhP 55.08), Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)
6 From Energy Balance Table, Department of Energy (DOE)
7 From Philippine Energy Plan 2005 Updates: Energy Demand and Supply Outlook, DOE. Energy demand per capita was computed as the ratio of projected total energy demand for 2010 over the estimated population in 2010. The DOE used population projections based on the 1995 Census of Population prepared by the National Statistics Office (NSO). When the PEP 2005 Updates was prepared, the 2000 Census-based population projections were not yet available.
8 The ratio of imported crude oil to the total crude oil supply was more than 99 percent from 1995 until 2005
9 Basis for computation: cost per kWh – Php8.83/kWh (as of June 2005). Source: DOE brochure on Phantom Loads
10 Source: DOE primer on Alternative Fuels Program
11 This is the projected population for 2010 based on the 2000 CPH.
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