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Statistically Speaking
LOVE MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO YOUR HEART! 
by Dr. Romulo A. Virola 1
Secretary General, NSCB
As the year of the red fire dog starts, many of us eagerly look ahead in search of new beginnings, new prospects, new hopes. But some of us also entertain morbid thoughts about not making it to 2007.
True, life expectancy is getting longer. In case you didn't know, life expectancy refers to the number of years you are expected to live since ‘ laking tuwa ng magulang mo ” as Freddie Aguilar would rhapsodize over his Anak !
Five years ago, Pinoys were expected to live for about 64 years while Pinays were going to suffer for their sins a little longer, until they reached wrinkly 70! In 2006, that has gone up to 66 years for Pinoys and 72 years for Pinays ! But could you imagine, in 2015 a 27-year old Pinay would expect to live up to almost 83 years old? Beauty surgeons surely should be salivating over their business prospects then… by 2015 how many visits would our lolas have made to expensive salons and spas inflating their egos, while deflating more than our poor lolos' pockets?
But, really, what are your chances of celebrating your next birthday? Unless you prefer to pay the rich feng shui master, you should of course consult life expectancy tables prepared by statisticians and demographers and use statistics to find out!
Let me now tell you the top ten reasons why you may not live to celebrate, or at least, fantasize to celebrate, Valentine's Day next year!
According to statistics compiled by the DOH from the Civil Registration System of the NSO, during the period 1999-2002 diseases of the heart were consistently the number one killer, accounting for 16 to18 cases for every 100 deaths in a year. More frightening is that while for each year from 1999-2001, there were only 78-81 deaths due to diseases ( or is it problems?) of the heart per 100,000 population, the number rose to 88 in 2002! A case of too many loves being bad for the heart? Careful, you lovey-doveys!
Next are diseases of the vascular system causing 12 to 14 out of 100 deaths; malignant neoplasm, about 10 deaths; and pneumonia, about 9 deaths. In fifth place are accidents, with up to 9 deaths! ( Insurance companies, take note! But you don't really have to raise your premiums, do you?) And know what? The top five leading causes of death alone account for more than 50% of all death cases!
Tuberculosis, which the Millennium Development Goal or MDG addresses under Goal 6, Target 8, Indicator 23, is the 6 th leading cause of death , at 7 to 8 deaths per hundred cases. Next are chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and allied conditions, 4 to 5 deaths, followed by certain conditions originating in the perinatal period with about 4 deaths. The 9 th and 10 th leading causes of death are diabetes mellitus, about 3 deaths and nephritis, nephritic syndrome and nephrosis, about 2 cases for every 100 deaths. In 2002, there were about 18 deaths from diabetes mellitus and 12 deaths from nephritis, nephritic syndrome and nephrosis per 100,000 population, significantly up after only three years from 13 and 10, respectively, in 1999.
Quoting a study to be published in the Journal of the American College of Cardiology, the New York Times says that women are more likely than men to have a coronary disease that starves their heart muscle of oxygen even though X-rays show that their coronary arteries are clear of blockages! Di kaya tinatakot lang ng mga duktor ang mga babae? Because, do you know that in the Philippines, the percentage of male deaths is higher than that of females for all the top ten causes of mortality, except for diabetes mellitus? If the male species is not careful, could this then lead to the feminization of just about everything? Hooray! Exclaims the NCRFW. Also, if what the New York Times says is true for Pinoys , why is it that for every 100 deaths due to diseases of the heart recorded from 1999-2002, only 42 to 44 were females? Because, the wives would ask, when will you stop wondering who really, is the stronger sex?
Gender disparity on the ten leading causes of deaths is largest for accidents, tuberculosis and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and allied conditions. In fact, out of every 100 deaths due to accidents, 80-82 are males! Leading a life of excitement may sound good but living an exciting life is dangerous, as statistics show! Especially for men! You guys, Reform ! Or, better buy a lot of insurance - at least, after death did you part, you would make the missus happy! Her future husband too!
For tuberculosis and chronic pulmonary diseases, 67 to 68 out of every 100 death cases are males! That makes the mortality rates of men more than double those for women! Maybe, from working too hard?
In the case of diabetes, 52 to 53 out of a hundred victims are females. Not too wide a gender gap, but yes, the males are doing a little better, for a change! Now, maybe you should no longer wonder why Chocolates on Valentine's Day? Simple. It is man's strategy designed to equalize opportunities with women ! Take heed, ladies! Kalachuchi may not be too bad for Valentine's!
And tomorrow, don't you all forget the death statistics on diseases of your heart! Ingat lang sa puso ng ka-date nyo! Yes, indeed, nice to have a ka-puso , but better to have a ka-pamilya , too! Happy Valentine's Day!
Reactions and views are welcome thru email to the author at ra.virola@nscb.gov.ph
_______________
1 Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) and Chairman of the Statistical Research and Training Center (SRTC). He holds a Ph. D. in Statistics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, USA and has taught mathematics and statistics at the University of the Philippines. He is also a past president of the Philippine Statistical Association.
Posted 13 February 2006.
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