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As one of the signatories of the UN Millennium Declaration of 2000, the Philippines is committed to achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) along with other 189 states. The MDGs is a set of clearly-defined, time-bound and measurable goals and targets geared toward poverty-reduction and ensuring that globalization benefits all the world’s people. The MDGs is comprised of 8 goals with 18 targets and 48 indicators to be monitored from 1990 and to be achieved in 2015. Latest statistics show that the Philippines has high probability of attaining Goals 4, 7 and 8; medium probability for Goals 1, 3 and 6 and low probability for Goals 2 and 5.

Table 1. The Millennium Development Goals

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Goal 5: Improve maternal health Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

The low probability of achieving Goal 2 is attributed to the poor performance of the following indicators: 1) net enrolment ratio in primary education which declined from 99.1% in 1990 to 84.4% in 2005, 2) proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 6, which despite posting an increase to 70.0% in 2005 from 69.7% in 1990 exhibits a slow pace of progress (0.001) and 3) literacy rate of 15 to 24 years old at 96.6%  in 1990 which remained unchanged in 2003.

For Goal 5, the low probability of attainment is due to the slow pace (-0.014) of reducing by three-quarters the maternal mortality ratio even though MMR decreased from 209 in 1990 to 162 in 2006. Likewise, despite the increase in the proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel, its pace of progress (0.008) is not fast enough to reach 100% by 2015.

On the upside, the country has a high probability of attaining Goal 4 as evidenced by the decline in under-five mortality rate from 80.0% in 1990 to 32.0% in 2006 and the reduction in infant mortality rate from 57.0% to 24.0% in the same period. However, improvements on the immunization program of the government are needed to hasten the pace of progress in increasing the proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles.

The high probability of attaining Goal 7 is founded on the 1) increase in the proportion of land area covered by forest and the ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area, 2) decreases in the consumption of ozone-depleting CFCs and the proportion of households using solid fuels for cooking. Also contributing to the high probability is the increase in the proportion of households with sanitary toilet facility from 67.6% in 1990 to 86.2% in 2004. However, programs required to meet the housing requirements of the population are needed to counter the decrease from 91.0% in 1990 to 81.2% in 2000.

The country also has positive chances of attaining Goal 8 as debt service as a percentage of exports decreased from 27.2% in 1990 to 12.0% in 2006, telephone lines subscribers per 100 population increased from 1.5 in 1990 to 8.3 in 2006 and cellular phone subscribers increased from 0.1 in 1991 to 41.3 in 2005. However, there is a need to provide more employment opportunities to curb the increase in unemployment rate of 15-24 year olds which rose from 10.9% in 1990 to 16.4% in 2005.

Table 2. Probability of Attaining the MDGs: Goals 2, 4, 5, 7 and 8

Goal / Indicator	Baseline (1990)	Latest	Source of Data	Target (2015)	Actual  Average Annual Rate	Required Annual Rate	Probability
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Net enrolment ratio in primary education (%)	99.1	84.4 (2005)	DepEd	100.0	-1.088	0.040	Low
Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 6 (%)	69.7	70.0 (2005)	DepEd	100.0	0.001	0.040	Low
Literacy rate of 15 to 24 years old (%)	96.6	96.6 (2003)	NSO	100.0	0.000	0.040	Low
Goal 4: Reduce child mortality
Under-five mortality rate (%)	80.0	32.0 (2006)	NSCB TWG on Mortality Statistics & NSO	26.7	-0.038	-0.028	High
Infant mortality rate (%)	57.0	24.0 (2006)	NSCB TWG on Mortality Statistics & NSO	19.0	-0.036	-0.028	High
Proportion of 1 year-old children immunized against measles (%)	77.9	83.7 (2005)	DOH	100.0	0.017	0.040	Low
Goal 5: Improve maternal health
Maternal mortality ratio (%)	209.0	162.0 (2006)	NSCB TWG Mortality Statistics & NSO	52.3	-0.014	-0.031	Low
Proportion of births attended by skilled  health personnel (%)	58.8	63.7 (2005)	DOH	100.0	0.008	0.040	Low
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
Proportion of land area covered by forest (%)	20.5	23.9 (2003)	FMB	Increasing	0.013		High
Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area (%)	8.5	12.7 (2006)	PAWB	Increasing	0.031		High
Consumption of ozone-depleting CFCs (ODP tons)	2,981	681 (2006)	EMB	Decreasing	-0.048		High
Proportion of households using solid fuels for cooking (%)	66.2	42.1 (2003)	NSO	Decreasing	-0.028		High
Proportion of households with access to safe water supply (%)	73.0	80.2 (2004)	NSO	86.5	0.019	0.020	Medium
Proportion of households with sanitary toilet facility (%)	67.6	86.2 (2004)	NSO	83.8	0.041	0.020	High
Proportion of households with access to secure tenure (%)	91.0	81.2 (2000)	NSO	Increasing	-0.011		Low
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services (%)	27.2	12.0 (2006)	BSP	Decreasing	-0.013		High
Unemployment rate of 15-24 year olds (%)	10.9	16.4 (2005)	NSO	Decreasing	0.034		Low
Telephone lines subscribers per 100 population	1.5	8.3 (2006)	NTC	Increasing	0.283		High
Cellular phone subscribers per 100 population	0.1*	41.3 (2005)	NTC	increasing	49.095		High

  *baseline year is 1991

 

Sources of basic data: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), Department of Education (DepEd),  Department of Health (DOH), Environmental Management Bureau (EMB), Forest Management Bureau (FMB), National Statistical Coordination Board Technical Working Group (NSCB-TWG) on Mortality Statistics, National Statistics Office (NSO), National Telecommunications Commission,(NTC), Protected Areas and Wildlife Bureau (PAWB)

 

 

 

 

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